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Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#41

I had to get someone to unlock a case the other day to buy underwear at Target. Other times it's been toothpaste or deodorant. Someone want to explain to me why these things are locked up now, but they used to not be? Someone want to explain to me why I see videos of people stealing without consequence while security looks on powerless to do anything? Someone want to explain to me why there are open air markets for s…

Propaganda bro. Why would anyone trust the FBI rofl.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#44
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.

Here are the actual stats:

https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/

What you say is technically true but also highly misleading. You're cherry-picking points to put together a narrative that is not the obvious shape of the data.

Peak homicides over the past 10 years are nowhere near the peak in the 90's.

And they trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022:

https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#45
post #9

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

It would be reassuring if the proportion of murder to other, more common and visible crime was constant. But it's not. You may still get decrease in murders while having 10 fold increase in theft.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#46
post #9

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

1) It's great that homicides are decreasing. But while homicides are one way of measuring crime, there are others. I think many people are saying that the divergence is increasing between homicides and other crimes. Would you agree with the GP that "crime" can be increasing even if homicides are decreasing?

2) While it's rare, there are some well documented cases where "dead bodies" get hidden in the US by unscrupulous police trying to look better in statistics. Here's Chicago from a decade ago: https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/chicago-crime-st...

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#47
post #35

I don't trust the stats. Things that would have been reported as crimes 15 years ago aren't being called in now. * Leaders inside the police force have incentives to make it look like their departments are effective and nudge the numbers. * Elected officials, such as the mayor, have incentives to make it look like the police department is effective and reinforce the number nudgers. * This has a reinforcing cycle wher…

What’s new about these incentives? Why would this be happening now, uniquely?

It describes a process in which crime reporting progressively gets further from the ground truth over time. This isn't new.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#48
post #35

I don't trust the stats. Things that would have been reported as crimes 15 years ago aren't being called in now. * Leaders inside the police force have incentives to make it look like their departments are effective and nudge the numbers. * Elected officials, such as the mayor, have incentives to make it look like the police department is effective and reinforce the number nudgers. * This has a reinforcing cycle wher…

The perverse incentives you're describing were just the same 15 years ago.

And these are national stats so a few DAs in very blue cities not prosecuting minor offenses aren't big enough to have that much of an impact.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#49
I've noticed a general pattern on HN, and I think this thread exemplifies it: If the research confirms someone's personal experience, then they don't question the research methodology. On the other hand, if the research contradicts their experience, they look deeper into the methodology to find flaws in it. It's just a more intellectual form of confirmation bias.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#50

I had to get someone to unlock a case the other day to buy underwear at Target. Other times it's been toothpaste or deodorant. Someone want to explain to me why these things are locked up now, but they used to not be? Someone want to explain to me why I see videos of people stealing without consequence while security looks on powerless to do anything? Someone want to explain to me why there are open air markets for s…

Someone want to explain to me why my tax dollars should go towards protecting target and Walgreen’s inventory? When they have one security guard in their entire store? When police could instead be spending that time finding the driver of the truck that smashed into my car and drove away?

Because Walmart also pays taxes.
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