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Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#21

Post by User23 »

addicted wrote: post #9
diogenescynic wrote: post #3

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

Homicides are decreasing exactly the same way inflation is decreasing. Down from recent highs but still quite elevated.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#22

Post by avs733 »

pasttense01 wrote: post #7

There is a growing consensus that there is no point in reporting a crime to the police in most instances since it will take up your time doing so and either the police either won't even try to catch the perp or will fail to do so--and even if they do he will not receive a significant sanction.

Can you cite this growing consensus?

I’m agnostic whether you are right or wrong but one side brings data and you just have an anecdote.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#23

Post by DanTheManPR »

bavent wrote: post #8
greatpostman wrote: post #6

For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.

You mean backing things up with facts instead of anecdotes is thought control? What?

Here's an anecdote: I haven't been the victim of any type of crime for the last 15 years, whereas I had multiple break-ins and near violent encounters in the 00s and 90s. My neighborhood and city (I live in Northeast Minneapolis) feels dramatically safer than it did when I was younger. My relatives in the burbs think it's some sort of crime infested hellhole. I'm inclined to think that a actually, crime IS dropping and that people who think that it isn't watching and reading a lot of media that is filling their heads with nonsense.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#24

Post by matrix87 »

bavent wrote: post #8
greatpostman wrote: post #6

For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.

You mean backing things up with facts instead of anecdotes is thought control? What?

No, I'm pretty sure gp means drawing conclusions based off of lived experience instead of more general statistics. Or at least, not putting so much faith in statistics to allow them to cancel personal experiences which are opposed to them

Maybe an argument for that could be that statistics are normally framed in a certain way, or may obscure certain things, or may be inconclusive. Statistics can be gamed, sometimes common sense is more trustworthy

And I don't think flagging is an appropriate response to gp either, there's definitely room to discuss that type of perspective

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#25

Post by fallingknife »

I had to get someone to unlock a case the other day to buy underwear at Target. Other times it's been toothpaste or deodorant. Someone want to explain to me why these things are locked up now, but they used to not be? Someone want to explain to me why I see videos of people stealing without consequence while security looks on powerless to do anything? Someone want to explain to me why there are open air markets for stolen goods on the streets? Yeah, I'm sure crime is down. That sounds right.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#26

Post by mccrory »

pasttense01 wrote: post #7

There is a growing consensus that there is no point in reporting a crime to the police in most instances since it will take up your time doing so and either the police either won't even try to catch the perp or will fail to do so--and even if they do he will not receive a significant sanction.

Have a friend who is in security, when they have to cuff someone and call 911, they often get sent to voicemail. 10 minutes later 911 calls back and if the issue isn’t live anymore they refuse to send anyone. Had another incident personally where the police never came. Several friends have had similar experience, while not scientific it indicates there is at least a local problem. The other cities I look at seem to have similar issues in the news. There is no way crime is getting better right now.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#27

Post by ajross »

runsWphotons wrote: post #18
addicted wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.

Not according to this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/

Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!"

And more importantly, the rapid rise in 2020-21 is dropping rapidly now.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#28

Post by mattmaroon »

pasttense01 wrote: post #7

There is a growing consensus that there is no point in reporting a crime to the police in most instances since it will take up your time doing so and either the police either won't even try to catch the perp or will fail to do so--and even if they do he will not receive a significant sanction.

Is it growing? That was the consensus for as long as I remember. Great scene about it in the big lebowski.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#29

Post by User23 »

sfblah wrote: post #10
diogenescynic wrote: post #3

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

It seems like this effect should be measurable in some kind of principled way. Also, there are some crimes that haven't been decriminalized and are hard to sweep under the carpet (murder, manslaughter, etc). Are there trends for those crimes? Edit: The article does say that murder is down in big cities, but there is some weasel text in there about it being down "since the pandemic" which leaves me wondering whether i…

Recently in 2020 homicides peaked in the aftermath of the “mostly peaceful protests” and the subsequent law officer retreat to the donut shop. Traffic deaths also surged due to depolicing.

It’s good though that we’re still down from the bloody heights of the ‘90s era crack/cocaine wars!

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#30

Post by geepytee »

avs733 wrote: post #22
pasttense01 wrote: post #7

There is a growing consensus that there is no point in reporting a crime to the police in most instances since it will take up your time doing so and either the police either won't even try to catch the perp or will fail to do so--and even if they do he will not receive a significant sanction.

Can you cite this growing consensus? I’m agnostic whether you are right or wrong but one side brings data and you just have an anecdote.

Don't we all have a similar anecdote to tell?
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