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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

bradmunchen.substack.com

181–190 of 279 posts

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is my fear with everyone eventually plugging in their electric vehicles at 5pm. If I plug my car in at 5pm, it won't start charging for 7 hours, when it's economically rational for it to do so. Time-of-use pricing seem to solve this. EV load is among the least time-sensitive of all power consumers. Set up your pricing right, and the EV charging will follow.

What if you need to go out again at 9pm?

Then I go out at 9pm. Unless I've driven 200 or 300 miles that day (depending on charge level) there's no issue with any of this.

If I'd driven 300 miles earlier in the day, and know I need to drive more in the evening, I'd override the charging schedule. This literally never happens.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#182
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

Its a lot easier than you think. Just like trains, but on roads. The highway where trucks work like electric trains: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3P_S7pL7Yg And, there is electrification happening along highways, producing energy. German highway PV could generate up to 200 TWh a year: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/11/german-highway-pv-cou... Also, battery swapping will become a thing. You don't have to haul…

Electrified highways is a super interesting idea. In this video they're hybrids though - presumably they come up to speed with combustion and then just use the grid for cruising.

And I don't think it's a huge cost to have a gas and electric motor anyways, it's certainly not as heavy as a 1000KWH battery.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#183
post #43

The author clearly has an angle here. Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. They've even said (in the Leno episode) they're going to rev the thing before going into full production. Plus battery degradation is well understood. Plus it's known there are multiple range editions of the Semi, they aren't all the 500mi version. Also obviously the taxpayers aren't paying for this vehicle program somehow. Wait a year…

It’s amazing that Tesla fanboys are still a thing.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#184

So at first glance this is based on an anonymous second-hand source, and written on the substack of a self-described Tesla short seller. How seriously should we take this? I'll note that in another article[1], the author claimed that the delay in GigaMexico would push the next-gen model to 2027 and possibly bankrupt the company. According to Isaacson's Musk bio, Tesla moved initial production of the vehicle to Austin…

Just because it's from a self-described short seller doesn't mean it's not factually true. Short sellers obviously are incentivized to be uncharitable and focus on the negatives, but that also serves to bring the negatives to light where they might otherwise stay buried. We benefit from hearing both sides, especially if we're holding TSLA or considering trading.

this is mental gymnastics. i really think HN would be better with a reputation system so that posts like these will be checked for accuracy after the fact. accounts that accumulate tons of wrong predictions can be labeled and easily ignored. it would help with this problem where a huge wave of the same wrong opinion floods the comments and everyone else gets greyed out. why do we let wave after wave after wave happen without any accountability? like when half of HN confidently predicted twitter would crash… im not saying it was a bad guess but lets make it mean something to be wrong!

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#185
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

Its a lot easier than you think. Just like trains, but on roads. The highway where trucks work like electric trains: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3P_S7pL7Yg And, there is electrification happening along highways, producing energy. German highway PV could generate up to 200 TWh a year: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/11/german-highway-pv-cou... Also, battery swapping will become a thing. You don't have to haul…

> Also, battery swapping will become a thing.

Already is a thing for trucks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eYLtPSf7PY

Janus Trucks converts your existing trucks to battery electric and provides swap stations.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#186
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That can be true, and we can still be lacking. Passenger rail usage rates are abysmal.

The US is too big for long-distance passenger rail. Where density is high enough, local rail mass transit exists.

Most of the US lives east of the Mississippi River, where population density is commensurate with Europe. No one seriously proposes HSR from SF to Boston, but HSR from, say, Chicago to NYC is within the bounds of viability. And it's frankly criminal that we don't have 4h travel times from Boston to DC.

As I've said in the past, the only cities of the 50 largest in the US that are unquestionably out of HSR range are Denver and Salt Lake City, with Memphis, Birmingham, and Oklahoma City on the fringes of viability (from most to least viable). The other 45 cities? Totally viable.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#187
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains.

Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US *needs* zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. (Disclaimer: Non-expert, but Tesla owner since Q1 2018) I think EV trucks, as a concept is fine, but battery-swapping makes much more sense than using a nonremovable battery-pack that's 5-10x the size of a sedan-sized battery-pack.

> the US needs zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions.

I worked on a SAE HEV Challenge car back in the 1990's.

There is no such thing as a zero-emissions transportation solution.

Let's say you managed to make a solar-powered skateboard navigate existing sidewalks and deliver packages. (Which is not going to happen.) You would still need to build the solar cells and computer boards, which are NOT zero-emissions processes.

If an electric car is zero-emissions when running on battery power, my pickup is zero-emissions if I turn off the engine and coast down hill. Zero-emissions is nonsense.

We can reduce emissions by reducing, reusing, and recycling. The problem is that our EPA overlords hate reusing. If they wanted to reduce emissions, they would not pull old vehicles off the road. Instead they would find low-use situations where they could replace newer vehicles. Instead they destroyed the oldest, most useful trucks in Junker-Clunker.

This reminds me of a coworker / boss at a university I taught at about 10-15 years ago. She had a shiny new Lexus thing that got 15 MPG with a huge engine and an (I think) 8-speed automatic transmission when I had never seen such a thing before. (I know they are common now, but at the time that was odd.) She made fun of my old 1990's Chevy S10 pickup truck that got 25 MPG every time I drove 90 minutes each way to take 1,000 lbs of computer equipment to a recycling center. I only took in for recycling the stuff I could not reuse. Enviromentalism is all about looks. It has nothing to do with reducing emissions.

If anyone believed the claims of the enviromentalists, they would be calling for the executions of the scum who cheat on fake carbon credits. Instead they are buying ocean front properties while selling books about rising sea levels.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#188
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

But the current manufacturing of EVs and batteries isn’t carbon neutral or net zero until well into a vehicle’s lifecycle. It’s still worth doing but we should understand the true cost.

Manufacturing diesel fuel isn't carbon neutral either. At any point in the vehicle's lifecycle.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#189
post #57
post #43

The author clearly has an angle here. Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. They've even said (in the Leno episode) they're going to rev the thing before going into full production. Plus battery degradation is well understood. Plus it's known there are multiple range editions of the Semi, they aren't all the 500mi version. Also obviously the taxpayers aren't paying for this vehicle program somehow. Wait a year…

>Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. Then stop marketing yourself as though you're not. I don't care if the little asterisk in the corner of your website makes it clear that "it's just beta mode, bro", they clearly prefer to put out an image that suggests otherwise.

You're worried they're misleading semi truck purchasers or something? I mean they have made trucks that are being used, what's the problem? Is it just media coverage or something?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because it's from a self-described short seller doesn't mean it's not factually true. Short sellers obviously are incentivized to be uncharitable and focus on the negatives, but that also serves to bring the negatives to light where they might otherwise stay buried. We benefit from hearing both sides, especially if we're holding TSLA or considering trading.

this is mental gymnastics. i really think HN would be better with a reputation system so that posts like these will be checked for accuracy after the fact. accounts that accumulate tons of wrong predictions can be labeled and easily ignored. it would help with this problem where a huge wave of the same wrong opinion floods the comments and everyone else gets greyed out. why do we let wave after wave after wave happen…

> i really think HN would be better with a reputation system so that posts like these will be checked for accuracy after the fact. accounts that accumulate tons of wrong predictions can be labeled and easily ignored. it would help with this problem where a huge wave of the same wrong opinion floods the comments and everyone else gets greyed out. why do we let wave after wave after wave happen without any accountability?

I don't understand what your point is - the accuracy in question is in a linked article submission, not an HN comment, no?

Which account would be getting labeled as such? The link submitter? I suspect that's too diversified to really be effective.

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