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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

bradmunchen.substack.com

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Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#131

Post by Kon-Peki »

enragedcacti wrote: post #73

> During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city [imagine what happens when 100% of ICE vehicles have switched over to BEV in California by 2035]. A little bit tangential, but 2035 marks the ban on new passenger ICE vehicles. Given the average age of cars in the US, California probably won't even be at 50% passenger BEVs by 2035, let alone 100% of ALL vehicles.…

> but 2035 marks the ban on new passenger ICE vehicles.

Don’t worry, there will be a huge supply of like-new cars that have been titled in Nevada for 3 months and driven 10 miles.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#132

Post by jonathankoren »

ryaneager wrote: post #125
jjulius wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. Then stop marketing yourself as though you're not. I don't care if the little asterisk in the corner of your website makes it clear that "it's just beta mode, bro", they clearly prefer to put out an image that suggests otherwise.

I mean car companies have been releasing concept art of future vehicles since like forever so it’s pretty standard.

Concept cars aren't driven, let alone sold/given to actual customers.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#133

Post by thsksbd »

MadnessASAP wrote: post #87
ReactiveJelly wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Priuses manage to get 50 mpg highway without depleting charge or plugging in but I guess the same optimizations can't work on a big diesel as on a little gas engine?

Prius's are city cars, city driving has widely varying loads which are inherently awful for combustion engine efficiencies. The hybrid drivetrain allows the engine to stay within its optimal efficiency range which has a huge impact on mileage. Compare this too semis which spend most of their life on the highway with drivetrains optimized almost exclusively for constant highway speeds. There is far less gains to be ma…

This. The genius of the prius is that it manages to iron out the fundamental problem of energy conversion in transportation - no constant cruise speed

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#134

Post by ketzo »

jcranmer wrote: post #81
DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US *needs* zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. (Disclaimer: Non-expert, but Tesla owner since Q1 2018) I think EV trucks, as a concept is fine, but battery-swapping makes much more sense than using a nonremovable battery-pack that's 5-10x the size of a sedan-sized battery-pack.

> Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US needs zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. Are you aware that the US has the largest rail network of any country in the world, almost the size of the next two (both of whom are geographically larger than the US) combined?

That can be true, and we can still be lacking. Passenger rail usage rates are abysmal.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#135

Post by bdangubic »

gumby wrote: post #109
LeoPanthera wrote: post #44

I love that the Semi is just about as reliable as my Model X, which has been in for service 10 times, and even just this morning I got in to discover it completely dead with black screens. I can't wait to get rid of the damn thing.

Are you in California? There is a lemon law that should apply to what you describe. You’ll get your money back.

Not just in California...

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#136

Post by jojobas »

fastball wrote: post #115
jojobas wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except Musk was all out saying how it was production ready six years ago.

Honestly "Musk always gives timelines that are completely unrealistic" is a pretty tired criticism at this point. Is it true? Absolutely. Does it matter much? Not really. They're clearly making progress. Not sure what more you want in real terms. Not being able to stick to self-imposed deadlines isn't ideal, but its also not a crime.

It wasn't just the deadlines, he also declared many things as already achieved, including some patently impossible (such as 200kWh Roadster).

Perhaps worded so SEC can't get his bum, I don't know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZeB7SwmkiQ

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#137

Post by jonathankoren »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #24

This seems kind of par for the course. What I find strange is that there are busses[1] operating economically with similar time of use (but not top speed) requirements. The whole "car parts scaled up to truck size" is super on brand for their chief technologist. I'm also seeing a bunch of Rivian trucks and Ford E150 lightnings on the roads around the Bay Area which, for me, doesn't bode well for the launch of the Tes…

> I really wish Elon would pick cars or rockets and focus,

He doesn't actually do much with Space X. That's why it's successful.

Meanwhile, he's very micromanaging of Tesla and X... and it shows.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#138

Post by tptacek »

ketzo wrote: post #134
jcranmer wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US needs zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. Are you aware that the US has the largest rail network of any country in the world, almost the size of the next two (both of whom are geographically larger than the US) combined?

That can be true, and we can still be lacking. Passenger rail usage rates are abysmal.

We're talking about cargo, not passengers, right?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#139

Post by thsksbd »

jojobas wrote: post #96
borner791 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prius is just a little gas engine in a little and aerodynamic car. They can have a tiny gas engine because the electric helps acceleration from a standstill. The batteries are just weight on the highway

>The batteries are just weight on the highway Not quite. Diesel engines are most efficient (~40%) at full throttle, low-mid revs, and drop to <30% at low throttle. With some battery trashing you could see the engine work at some 20-50% duty cycle on the highway.

Not quite. otto cycle is most efficient at full throttle due to throttle valve pump losses.

Diesels are most thermodynamically efficient at low throttle because it takes time to combust the fuel. During this time the piston expands and the compression ratio drops.

You can see the derivation and formulas in Faires (and older edition. Even the 70s edition lacked the chapter). Actually just comparing the the PV diagram of otto and diesel makes it obvious.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#140

Post by chrisbrandow »

This report is great. It certainly rules out the, “everything is definitely on track“ scenario.

But itoesn’t tell us anything beyond that. It simply comes down to what Tesla is really trying to do. This could either be a “pump”, or it could be the normal shortcuts and growing pains that are part of an ambitious beta product.

A couple of years ago I would’ve leaned much further towards beta product scenario, but I’m still not willing to rule it out at this point.

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