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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

bradmunchen.substack.com

41–50 of 279 posts

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#41
post #19
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

"We" (the west) need to go below net zero as it's clear that most of the world isn't concerned with curbing carbon emissions(quite the opposite, it seems).

Note that "need" here is in the context of meeting the climate goals we've chosen to impose on ourselves. I'm not going to debate the wisdom of that choice here.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#42
post #19
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

But the current manufacturing of EVs and batteries isn’t carbon neutral or net zero until well into a vehicle’s lifecycle.

It’s still worth doing but we should understand the true cost.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#43
The author clearly has an angle here. Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. They've even said (in the Leno episode) they're going to rev the thing before going into full production. Plus battery degradation is well understood. Plus it's known there are multiple range editions of the Semi, they aren't all the 500mi version. Also obviously the taxpayers aren't paying for this vehicle program somehow. Wait a year and see how it's going. We have to electrify all transport, so someone's got to work on it.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#45

It's a prototype at the edge of what state of the art battery technology allows. Kudos to Tesla for having the guts and endurance to try. This is relevant for Tesla and for the industry.

Except Musk was all out saying how it was production ready six years ago.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#46
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

Priuses manage to get 50 mpg highway without depleting charge or plugging in but I guess the same optimizations can't work on a big diesel as on a little gas engine?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#47

This seems kind of par for the course. What I find strange is that there are busses[1] operating economically with similar time of use (but not top speed) requirements. The whole "car parts scaled up to truck size" is super on brand for their chief technologist. I'm also seeing a bunch of Rivian trucks and Ford E150 lightnings on the roads around the Bay Area which, for me, doesn't bode well for the launch of the Tes…

I don't think your average Rivian or E150 customer is in the same group as someone interested in buying a Cybertruck. Some people want practical trucks. Some people want Cybertrucks(for various reasons). I'm not saying the Cybertruck will do well, but if it doesn't, I doubt you can blame Rivians and E150s.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#48
post #39
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

Trains.

Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US *needs* zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions.

(Disclaimer: Non-expert, but Tesla owner since Q1 2018) I think EV trucks, as a concept is fine, but battery-swapping makes much more sense than using a nonremovable battery-pack that's 5-10x the size of a sedan-sized battery-pack.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#49
post #3

Why does anybody in the entire world want a semi with a 5 second 0-60?

I believe it's just a side effect of getting a BEV to that mileage range. Only the performance oriented Teslas put any thought into the acceleration, because it's already plenty fast by default.

It's a side effect of decent regen braking. Your petrol car brakes can dissipate many times more power than its engine can put out.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#50

It's a prototype at the edge of what state of the art battery technology allows. Kudos to Tesla for having the guts and endurance to try. This is relevant for Tesla and for the industry.

That is certainly one way to spin incompetent product design.
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