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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

bradmunchen.substack.com

51–60 of 279 posts

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#51
post #14

[ Edit: I shouldn't have bothered. The whole blog is a TSLA short seller! They clearly aren't vetting this info, they're trying to drive clicks from forums like this one. ] The sourcing here is a bit spun. "An insider" turns out to be a random driver someone found at a truck stop? > This is why it was with great fortune to receive the details below, which were told to a trusted automotive source of mine by a PepsiCo…

When you're long and leveraged the entire world is short.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#52
Its all a hot mess. All of their cars just feel like they are a compromise. From panel gaps to random electronic issues. It's all spin and marketing. I have moved away to the Taycan and it is a much better car. I have a neighbor who doesn't wash his Tesla because the panel gaps make water come in at a car wash. It's so funny to see. Tesla brought electric cars into the zeitgeist and they deserve credit for that but they never made good cars since maybe the first Model Ss.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#53
post #19
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

[deleted]

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#54
post #19
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

Have to, or perish.

The smart money is on perishing.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#55
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

Priuses manage to get 50 mpg highway without depleting charge or plugging in but I guess the same optimizations can't work on a big diesel as on a little gas engine?

Prius is just a little gas engine in a little and aerodynamic car.

They can have a tiny gas engine because the electric helps acceleration from a standstill.

The batteries are just weight on the highway

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#56

This seems kind of par for the course. What I find strange is that there are busses[1] operating economically with similar time of use (but not top speed) requirements. The whole "car parts scaled up to truck size" is super on brand for their chief technologist. I'm also seeing a bunch of Rivian trucks and Ford E150 lightnings on the roads around the Bay Area which, for me, doesn't bode well for the launch of the Tes…

I don't think your average Rivian or E150 customer is in the same group as someone interested in buying a Cybertruck. Some people want practical trucks. Some people want Cybertrucks(for various reasons). I'm not saying the Cybertruck will do well, but if it doesn't, I doubt you can blame Rivians and E150s.

I wonder sometimes if folks think they are buying a Delorean lottery ticket.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#57
post #43

The author clearly has an angle here. Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. They've even said (in the Leno episode) they're going to rev the thing before going into full production. Plus battery degradation is well understood. Plus it's known there are multiple range editions of the Semi, they aren't all the 500mi version. Also obviously the taxpayers aren't paying for this vehicle program somehow. Wait a year…

>Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode.

Then stop marketing yourself as though you're not. I don't care if the little asterisk in the corner of your website makes it clear that "it's just beta mode, bro", they clearly prefer to put out an image that suggests otherwise.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#58
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains.

Ideally, yes - but the US is lacking in rail infrastructure, so the US *needs* zero-emission, road-based, logistics solutions. (Disclaimer: Non-expert, but Tesla owner since Q1 2018) I think EV trucks, as a concept is fine, but battery-swapping makes much more sense than using a nonremovable battery-pack that's 5-10x the size of a sedan-sized battery-pack.

Then rebuild the infrastructure. Wikipedia lists 100+ closed rail lines in the US, so the real count must be in thousands. Long haul should never be by road.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#60

This seems kind of par for the course. What I find strange is that there are busses[1] operating economically with similar time of use (but not top speed) requirements. The whole "car parts scaled up to truck size" is super on brand for their chief technologist. I'm also seeing a bunch of Rivian trucks and Ford E150 lightnings on the roads around the Bay Area which, for me, doesn't bode well for the launch of the Tes…

The first time I saw a cyber truck on the road in Austin I literally laughed out loud. It was that startling. I’m sure that will fade, but it’s a very comical first impression.

Yes, 100% with you. The cybertruck is the ugliest, most offensive looking car I've ever seen. I also LOL'd.

My previous comment at the time: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37935293

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