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The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

bradmunchen.substack.com

151–160 of 279 posts

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#151
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

Priuses manage to get 50 mpg highway without depleting charge or plugging in but I guess the same optimizations can't work on a big diesel as on a little gas engine?

The relevant number for a semi isn't "miles per gallon" but "gallons per (cargo)ton-mile".

(Which is not to say you couldn't make some improvements, but you're never going to get 50 mpg while hauling 40 tons.)

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#152
post #38

>Center seating, which looks cool in the Tesla Semi launch video, is actually not practical and not well liked by PepsiCo’s drivers. My work involves direct interaction with truck drivers on a near daily basis and I have been saying this since Tesla debuted the interior design. I am completely unsurprised to hear this The amount of hubris Tesla has when it comes to so many things like this is mind-blowing.

I am curious how the 0-60 performance number Tesla keeps talking about for the Semi is received in practice. Is it important to them? Is it more a case of something designed for an audience Tesla doesn’t understand?

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#153
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Tesla's obviously in some kind of beta mode. Then stop marketing yourself as though you're not. I don't care if the little asterisk in the corner of your website makes it clear that "it's just beta mode, bro", they clearly prefer to put out an image that suggests otherwise.

I mean car companies have been releasing concept art of future vehicles since like forever so it’s pretty standard.

Yeah, but concept cars are well denoted as such and CEOs don't normally go all "this and that is production ready and it's financial suicide to buy anything else".

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#154
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The batteries are just weight on the highway Not quite. Diesel engines are most efficient (~40%) at full throttle, low-mid revs, and drop to <30% at low throttle. With some battery trashing you could see the engine work at some 20-50% duty cycle on the highway.

Not quite. otto cycle is most efficient at full throttle due to throttle valve pump losses. Diesels are most thermodynamically efficient at low throttle because it takes time to combust the fuel. During this time the piston expands and the compression ratio drops. You can see the derivation and formulas in Faires (and older edition. Even the 70s edition lacked the chapter). Actually just comparing the the PV diagram…

> Diesels are most thermodynamically efficient at low throttle

I think you meant 'low RPM'. Low throttle doesn't always equate low RPM and VV.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#155
post #7

It seems like the author has combined some fairly credible rumors with a lot of guesswork, some of which doesn't really make sense.

> great fortune to receive the details below, which were told to a trusted automotive source of mine by a PepsiCo employee who happened to have time for my friend’s questions

I believe this is what they call, in the legal industry, "Hearsay". Pepsi person tells friend person who tells the author. A lot can get lost in that chain of telephone.

But yea, you're right. A lot of it is kinda nonsense statements. Or it's otherwise meaningless. For example

> There is a team of Tesla engineers on call 24 hours a day, ready to fly out and fix anything wrong with the Tesla Semis. No one at PepsiCo is allowed to fix the Semi.

Well, duh? These are preproduction units that Pepsi is probably getting for a song, with the understanding that there are going to be teething issues. Of course no one is allowed to "fix" the semi other than Tesla, no one is qualified to fix them. Hell, Tesla Service Centers aren't qualified because the only people who know enough about these machines are the engineers who built them.

The author likes to repeat things that are clearly non-sense as well.

> The batteries completely burned out

What does "burned out" even mean? Driven until failure? That doesn't make sense. Tesla, if nothing else, understands EV's and battery packs (if maybe not Semi's). They know how to build batteries with protection circuits so they can't go too low and permanently damage themselves. So what this probably means is driven until the battery went flat/dead/0% SOC. And that's, once again, not a shock. Drive a vehicle that isn't ready to do 500 miles, more than 500 miles and its going to go dead. There are a total of ZERO megachargers out in the world that the Semi could use, so... of course they are going to die. If you drive a gas vehicle somewhere there are no gas stations it'll also die.

> The constant use of the battery pack is unprecedented and is causing reliability problems for Tesla and other EV truck makers

There are, what, a half dozen preproduction units out in the world? How can you even come to a statement like this that makes sense? The announcement of the first public delivery of a semi was December 1st, 2022 - so they've not been in fleet hands for even a year yet. I would be shocked if the first unit that rolled off the preprod line WAS reliable overall, if anyone remembers... the roadsters had more than a few issues too.

> All Tesla Semis and other electric trucks are subsidized by California state

Where are the sources on this? If Tesla was actually getting subsidy to build these, it would be in the news. Easy to prove. I cannot find any articles other than one mentioning the hope to get a federal grant to build a megacharger corridor from CA to TX.

Do I think the tesla semi's are the most amazing thing since sliced bread? No. I'm sure they have tons of issues. But shitty writing (I won't even call this article "reporting" since it is basically some dudebro's blog) based on hearsay without any sort of proof or corroboration is just shitty fantasy. Might as well read some of that rule34 fanfiction about Elon that the fanboys write, if you want equal levels of accuracy.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#156
post #9

Looks like the design requirement for a heavy duty vehicle were not properly followed. Though that's how tesla builds something like software build find faults then itteriate. For light duty if you can get chinese $2000 truck with a hydraulic lift I think china is going to takeover the world's vehicle manufacturing markets. https://electrek.co/2023/11/14/two-years-after-buying-a-2000...

I think that vehicle is neat. I love the size and capabilities. Honestly, this would be a great vehicle for me with a few modifications. But I found the article to be at least a _little_ disingenuous.

> It was listed at $2,000, and I just knew I had to have it ... The price ballooned as I added a bigger battery and accessories from the factory, not to mention the exorbitant sea shipping freight ... Though to be fair, that A/C cost me extra for the factory installation.

I wish they listed the final cost, at least the final cost with the bigger battery and accessories they added. Seems much more than $2,000 based on their wording.

> like an alternative to a UTV ... It topped out at 25 mph ... it’s not technically street-legal (it doesn’t meet the safety requirements for LSVs)

A UTV is a great comparison, especially for their uses. It will almost certainly beat UTVs that are common in the US on price (again, they didn't tell us the final price, spec'ed out), but it's hard to find a good comparison given the minimal details.

> I’m not sure I’ve seen a golf cart that can tow a boat

At marina I used to frequent, the owner would move 20+ foot boats around the property using a ~30 year old ride-on lawnmower without any trouble at all. He even launched and recovered a few large boats with it, though that was always dicey.

Overall this looks a nice vehicle to have on a hobby farm, but it seems to have a long (and expensive) way to go before it's something to buy for driving on roads.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#157

This report is great. It certainly rules out the, “everything is definitely on track“ scenario. But itoesn’t tell us anything beyond that. It simply comes down to what Tesla is really trying to do. This could either be a “pump”, or it could be the normal shortcuts and growing pains that are part of an ambitious beta product. A couple of years ago I would’ve leaned much further towards beta product scenario, but I’m s…

Anything can be "on track" if you don't know what the track is. It's a meaningless statement to anyone but those that know.

All you can really do is smile and nod, which, it's much more useful to spend your time not listening to this sport of speculation, and, if you must speculate, speculate on if the idea of an electric semi is viable in the first place.

Personally, I think it is. It's a much harder engineering problem than a car though, so, it's likely to take awhile to become really viable, and longer still to get to a place a reasonable person would call "good". I'd also go sofar as to say, tech wise, we're probably not there yet. We need better batteries, and a means to charge them. That's been slow going so far, and likely needs some significant investment.

Something like a billion dollar X-prize, or, make it 2 billion, for inflation reasons, for the first group that can demonstrate a battery tech suitable for mass manufacturing that's 2x current lithium ion cells at 1/2 the cost. That'd probably get us there in the next 5 years or so, give it another 5 to scale out, and the parallel tech developed trying to attain that prize probably sees things developing relatively quickly after that.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#158
post #12

Batteries on semis dont make much sense to me. Hybrid systems on heavy inner city vehicles make a lot of sense. As do hybrids in mountainous areas. But long distance hauling? BS. Semi engines are large with very low power to displacement ratio -> they are very fuel efficient. Truck builders' customers are very sensitive to fuel consumption. I find it very hard to believe that marginal grid power (ie thermal plant), t…

Its a lot easier than you think. Just like trains, but on roads.

The highway where trucks work like electric trains: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3P_S7pL7Yg

And, there is electrification happening along highways, producing energy. German highway PV could generate up to 200 TWh a year: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/11/german-highway-pv-cou...

Also, battery swapping will become a thing. You don't have to haul a ton of batteries, you can swap them in seconds along your route. There will be (eventually) a ton of battery plants replacing peaker natural gas plants, these will be built along the highways, also serving a second function of battery swap stations.

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#159

So at first glance this is based on an anonymous second-hand source, and written on the substack of a self-described Tesla short seller. How seriously should we take this? I'll note that in another article[1], the author claimed that the delay in GigaMexico would push the next-gen model to 2027 and possibly bankrupt the company. According to Isaacson's Musk bio, Tesla moved initial production of the vehicle to Austin…

None. It's hearsay without any corroboration or sources, even for the statements that could be fact-checked (like state subsidies).

Re: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

#160
post #54
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to go to net zero somehow. With carbon capture or carbon offset technologies near non existing, we have to make the switch sooner or later

Have to, or perish. The smart money is on perishing.

Not everyone perishes, just a few hundred extra million deaths per degree Celsius? Very very bad, but not everyone.
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