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A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

nature.com

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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#241

Post by bandyaboot »

jacquesm wrote: post #234
GeoAtreides wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Climate scientists are brigaded regularly, especially online so I'm fine with them keeping a low profile. Historically the bringers of bad news were executed. These days we're a bit better but not all that much. Uncomfortable truths and all that... Meanwhile, you should try to respond to the arguments made, not to the man. From behind -ironically - your own anonymity.

> Historically the bringers of bad news were executed. These days we're a bit better but not all that much.

Am I reading this right—currently scientists that bring bad news aren’t treated all that much better than…being executed?

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#242

Post by wittenbunk »

Brusco_RF wrote: post #219
cryoshon wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is palpably warmer today than when we were children. Likewise, it was not always the case that summers were characterized by weeks of choking wildfire smoke. Who are you going to believe: the warmth felt by your own skin, or the people telling you that nothing is wrong, and that global heating isn't something to be concerned about? Psychologically it's more comfortable to choose the latter because it implie…

Yeah, you're too deep in it. The natural rate of wildfire is about 5x higher than current levels, despite what breathless journalists will push. Check out this chart [1] before modern forest "management" kicked in. Modern conflagrations are a result of decades of snuffing out small fires. Also, I live in Arizona and I'm pretty sick of people telling me it's getting hotter. Its not. Our record temperature was set in 1…

My kid has barely been able to go outside this summer because of months of endless wildfires a thousand miles away...or am I in too deep with my lying eyes and wheezing lungs?

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#243

Post by dathinab »

snowwrestler wrote: post #29
notamy wrote: post #3

> Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of…

Ireland and Great Britain are at about the same latitude as Labrador in Canada, but benefit from heat transported across the North Atlantic from the Caribbean by warm water. Absent the current that is transporting that warm water, one would expect the GB climate to more closely resemble Labrador’s. In other words, much colder.

The problem is people mix up the overturning part of the AMOC and other overlapping streams.

And while the AMOC is powered quite a bit by water cooling down in the Arctic etc. the other streams are also to a huge degree powered by earth rotation AFIK.

In other words they won't stop, and likely won't slow down that much either. And that is if the AMOC stops instead of just slowing down quite a bit.

E.g. the rotation consisting of Gulf, Canary, N. Equatorial stream and N. Atlantic drift won't stop, but it will reach less far north and potentially colder. Similar for the other "rotations" like that (e.g. BrazilAfrica) which the overturning stream overlaps with, through some parts might somewhat change their forms and water temperatures.

Or in other word while the absence of the AMOC can cool down GB/Ireland it won't remove all effects.

Expecting similar climate to other (coast) areas on the same latitude is ... not that useful. There are many different ocean current not affected by a stopping overturning current affecting the weather, additional even on coastal areas the wetter isn't always dominated by the ocean climate but can sometimes be largely affected by a constant strong weather front from the country side (both hotter and colder) and in some places that is a common occurrence due to the geography.

It still will likely be ... unpleasant in various ways.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#244

Post by jacquesm »

bandyaboot wrote: post #241
jacquesm wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate scientists are brigaded regularly, especially online so I'm fine with them keeping a low profile. Historically the bringers of bad news were executed. These days we're a bit better but not all that much. Uncomfortable truths and all that... Meanwhile, you should try to respond to the arguments made, not to the man. From behind -ironically - your own anonymity.

> Historically the bringers of bad news were executed. These days we're a bit better but not all that much . Am I reading this right—currently scientists that bring bad news aren’t treated all that much better than…being executed?

You are not reading that right. We are not executing them in the literal sense but people's lives are being ruined.

One of the bits that made it into the guidelines is that if there are multiple explanations for a comment that you're supposed to go with the stronger one. You seem to have picked the wrong interpretation on purpose. Please don't do that.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#245

Post by callalex »

Brusco_RF wrote: post #204
Fricken wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of an irrelevant point to make. We're setting new emissions records, so nothing so far has been productive.

It's exceptionally relevant. Excuse my French, but this constant doomerism is really fucking up the kids. >"More than half of the 16- to 25-year-olds in the Lancet survey said they believe humanity is doomed. And close to 40 percent said that fears about the future have made them reluctant to have children of their own." [1] We gave an entire generation anxiety and depression, and it's going to wreak havoc on the fer…

Having a realistic picture of the future is important for long-term life planning. It is not the reporting of the facts that’s fuckin’ up the kids, it’s the facts themselves. Burying your head in the sand is not a valid technique when addressing anxieties, it only makes the inevitable emotional breakdown worse when things come to a head.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#246

Post by refulgentis »

ke88y wrote: post #152
refulgentis wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain what Bourbon is? People are making one-off references to it but I can't find a search query that results in anything relevant to climate or scientific scandals

He's saying to pour yourself a stiff drink ;-)

I wasn't so sure, there's 3 comments mentioning it and 2 mis-capitalize it in a context where it could be a proper noun...but I'm leaning you're correct

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#247

Post by dathinab »

richardwhiuk wrote: post #22
coremoff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If nothing else, the UK would more closely resemble central Europe, as I understand it - colder winters, hotter summers

Given a full collapse, wouldn't the UK resemble northern Canada?

you can't really do comparisons like that as there are other currents which overlap with the overturning one and they won't stop even if that one stops due to them getting a lot of their energy from earth rotation. Through depending on which you look at they might become a bit hotter/colder.

Also geography making it more, or less, likely for constant wind from the inland affecting the wetter can also affect the normal expected wetter noticeable.

E.g. UK being a island means there are much less affected by inland wetter moving over to them then many typical Canadian comparison places. (And from-inland wind is the main cause of very hot summer or very cold winter wetter in many places e.g. cold weeks in north Germany, or e.g. the main source of Blizzards in the US).

So IMHO comparisons like "this city is on the same latitude and also on the cost so it will have similar weather" without the overturning current are pointless (which doesn't mean that they can't happen to be correct, but they as much can happen to be fully wrong).

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#248

Post by callalex »

RandomLensman wrote: post #209
ajmurmann wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of ideas like carbon tax, or more clumsy ones like higher gasoline tax, banning gasoline cars, etc. But no country has sufficient buy-in to do anything that even just is a little inconvenient.

Again, not a positive vision there: initially increasing costs with a very long payoff period (and also having to live through the change already backed into the climate for quite some time)? That cannot the best we can do - there has to be more we can get out of an energy transition. For example, could have an explicit policy of wanting lower energy costs in high cost places.

I must be misunderstanding what you are looking for, because my understanding of your wish for “lower energy costs in high cost places” sounds the same to me as wishing for everyone to be rich, nobody to be hungry, or for every child to have a pony.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#249

Post by dathinab »

hathchip wrote: post #108
pvaldes wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a good way to see the problem in a second Think about New York, is at 40 degrees N latitude. This means that if NY would be in the Atlantic coast of Europe would fall in Portugal! a little North to Lisbon! (38ºN). Sometimes Is easy to forget that NY is "Southern Europe" league. Southern than the North Coast of Spain. Now lets see Quebec (53ºN). Well, London is 51ºN. Without the sea current bringing hot tropi…

But the West Coast of North America is has milder winters than the East Coast, which has milder winters than the center. Shouldn't we expect London to end up with a similar climate as somewhere on the West Coast of Canada at the same latitude?

yes, likely even milder than that due to being also an island

but it's complicated, many other ocean currents exist and affect weather and wont stop

and basically only the overturning part of the AMOC is at risk of stopping, which means e.g. the gulf stream won't stop, but will likely become a bit colder and maybe a bit slower too

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#250

Post by ddq »

RandomLensman wrote: post #172
ddq wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By contrast, acknowledging the dystopian elements of the present is productive and important. They are real and should be addressed for the betterment of mankind.

I just don't think that approach has worked well so far because there often isn't a near term positive vision to go alongside.

It's not an approach, it's step one. To develop answers you must first figure out the questions. I agree merely acknowledging the status quo as bad is not enough, but I fail to see how one would intentionally address issues without first understanding them.
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