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A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

nature.com

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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#231

Post by jacquesm »

hunter-gatherer wrote: post #198
jacquesm wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like you would any other thing that is outside your circle of influence: kick it out of your circle of concern because you aren't realistically speaking geared up to move yourself into a position where you do have influence. If you don't you end up with the global equivalent of a burn-out and it might start to affect your ability to make decisions about things that you do have influence over because it is paralyzing…

Man... this is the most fatalist comment I've read in a while but I suspect your prescription to the problem is the correct one.

I'm sorry I don't have anything better on this. There is this fantastic interview of Ray Anderson, the late CEO of 'Interface' (modular carpets) where he describes vividly the kind of damage that industry is wreaking on the planet and what they are trying to do about it and it's depressing that for all that power and insight he managed to do preciously little:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzOwP0phUis

At that level you can make some change that moves the needle. At the low-on-the-totempole level you're not going to be able to do much of anything without dedicating your life to it. Greta Thunberg comes to mind, though I'm not even sure if she is effective though maybe she'll inspire the next generation. Anything else is a token feel good thing that will not actually make a difference.

If you look at COVID and our collective response and realize the magnitude of that challenge versus climate change then the only valid conclusion is that we're in for a very rough ride, just how rough is the open question, possibly rougher than I can imagine hopefully less so.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#232

Post by digdugdirk »

ajmurmann wrote: post #190
digdugdirk wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, actually the truth. The climate change "hype" comes from journalists and editors. The actual research papers are generally very conservative in their estimations, and we've been exceeding the predicted outcomes for decades without making any real changes to improve our situation.

Given the conservative estimates by scientists have been exceeded, how far of where the more exaggerated takes by journalists?

Even today we have no way of really answering that question. Climate science is generally aiming for a timeline around 2050-2100.

As an analogy - Imagine I told you that if you ate an extra 3000 calories of junk food every day you'd gain a lot of weight. You disagree, for whatever reason, and we carry out the experiment. If a journalist wrote an article on our experiment, and their editor titled it "Ajmurmann about to be 100kg heavier!", when would we be able to tell if they are correct or not? You might be able to make it a week while still being within normal weight fluctuations, but two weeks? Three weeks? A year? And when would we be able to determine the "correctness" of the 100kg number?

Comparing that situation to the Earth's climate - We're still in the first month of the experiment, and shoveling junk food into our metaphorical mouths as fast we can.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#233

Post by novaRom »

colechristensen wrote: post #207
thumbuddy wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So say it does collapse, in layman's terms what does that mean?

Europe would get cold. Ocean currents bring lots of warm water from the south towards Europe making it quite a bit warmer than other places at similar latitudes. Cities in Europe are quite a bit further north than most people think. Lots of other side effects as well would happen but be less known or surely predicted by models.

Clear skies and drier weather should result in reduced cloud cover, which allows more direct sunlight to reach the surface during the day, leading to warmer temperatures.

During the night, the lack of cloud cover also means there is less insulation to trap the heat accumulated during the day.

This can lead to hot days and relatively cooler nights, which can be characteristic of certain climates, like in arid or desert regions.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#234

Post by jacquesm »

GeoAtreides wrote: post #214
oceanthrowaway wrote: post #32

I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…

[flagged]

Climate scientists are brigaded regularly, especially online so I'm fine with them keeping a low profile. Historically the bringers of bad news were executed. These days we're a bit better but not all that much.

Uncomfortable truths and all that...

Meanwhile, you should try to respond to the arguments made, not to the man. From behind -ironically - your own anonymity.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#235

Post by elSidCampeador »

ke88y wrote: post #152
refulgentis wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain what Bourbon is? People are making one-off references to it but I can't find a search query that results in anything relevant to climate or scientific scandals

He's saying to pour yourself a stiff drink ;-)

Is the hard truth different before bourbon, then? (tongue firmly in cheek)

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#236

Post by jychang »

olddustytrail wrote: post #201
wredue wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a ridiculous comparison. Single human lifetimes are only measured in decades. If the entirety of humans were very likely to be wiped out from 2025 to 2095, you would definitely call that imminent, and is a much more apt comparison.

That’s a ridiculous comparison. The vast majority of humans don't live anywhere near the Atlantic so there's no way the entirety of humans would be wiped out. My comparison was much more apt.

The number of people the collapse would affect is a whole lot closer to “the total human population” than “1 person”.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#237

Post by wernercd »

mschild wrote: post #103
Terretta wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The terms "imminent" and "predict the time" seem like missing the point of the article you acknowledged you have only skimmed. I felt the article was clear collapse is not imminent, not even in this century. I felt it noted focus was not on imminence, but on changes worth mentioning in aspects of interest. Perhaps the difference is this article is talking of timing for transitions of significance, rather than the for…

It's mentions a potential collapse as early as 2025. More precisely 2025-2095. That is this century and it's accurate to say 2025 is imminent.

> It's mentions a potential collapse as early as 2025

"DOOM ITS THE END OF THE WORLD!" is a tale as old as time... revelations has been screaming the end is near for thousands of years now.

It's "accurate to say" that prophets and prophecies are notoriously wrong which is why signs that the ice caps will be gone by 2000 have been removed from state parks.

hint: they aren't gone.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#238

Post by GeoAtreides »

jacquesm wrote: post #234
GeoAtreides wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Climate scientists are brigaded regularly, especially online so I'm fine with them keeping a low profile. Historically the bringers of bad news were executed. These days we're a bit better but not all that much. Uncomfortable truths and all that... Meanwhile, you should try to respond to the arguments made, not to the man. From behind -ironically - your own anonymity.

I can't respond to arguments made, because I'm not a climate scientist, I just move pixels around in my day job. I don't know anything about climate simulations, the past and present literature, etc. In the same way I trust doctors when they say I need stuff cut out from my body, or that ingesting this or that would give me cancer, in the same way I trust people who study climate science for a living, that have a career in climate science and that have published in scientific journals. I'm not a superman, I can't learn every domain that is to learn for every study published. We have some people that study a thing -- we will trust them. And like wise, when people need pixels moved, they can come to me, they can trust me to move the pixels.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#239

Post by CalRobert »

olddustytrail wrote: post #148
mschild wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's mentions a potential collapse as early as 2025. More precisely 2025-2095. That is this century and it's accurate to say 2025 is imminent.

Yes, but I - and probably you - will die sometime between 2025 and 2095. I wouldn't say that therefore our deaths are imminent.

My kids should still be alive in 2100, if only just

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#240

Post by thumbuddy »

novaRom wrote: post #211
thumbuddy wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So say it does collapse, in layman's terms what does that mean?

Current stable pattern changes into another stable one, probably quickly. Or it may split into two independent stable patterns. It will not disappear. It may result in long term climatic changes in different geographies, especially during transition, although it would be rather quick.

Thanks for explaining that. I guess what I'm asking is... Will the sea life likely be okay? Human life? More hurricanes? No one knows?
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