101–110 of 324 posts
So, the current stops and things get colder in Europe, but they have been having serious heat wave issues each summer. Will things be worse in the winters, but better in the summers if the current did stop?
I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…
As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…
I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…
The terms "imminent" and "predict the time" seem like missing the point of the article you acknowledged you have only skimmed. I felt the article was clear collapse is not imminent, not even in this century. I felt it noted focus was not on imminence, but on changes worth mentioning in aspects of interest. Perhaps the difference is this article is talking of timing for transitions of significance, rather than the for…
I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…
As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…
Treat it like the weather prediction for next month, if it happens it happens and then you can react. If it starts to show up in the weather prediction for tomorrow it is time to factor it into your present day decisions.
I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…
One of the predictions related to global warming that seems to surprise people is that most of the predicted sea level rise is attributed to the thermal expansion of warmer sea water. So when we think about major changes in how the ocean absorbs and distributes heat, we’re also thinking about how sea level will change in certain areas vs others. If the ocean starts storing a lot more heat around Cuba than Great Brita…
Anyone else think that all these predictions are going to happen sooner rather than later in terms of the given prediction range? I can't help but think that a study focussing on a specific area like this one, antarctic sea ice, wildfire predictions etc must only be able to take so many variables into account and that second order effects, third order, fourth order and beyond from other climate subsystems are going t…
> compound and significantly accelerate the timeline There's a misconception that the biosphere is a delicate machine that will have a catastrophic internal failure if we don't follow the maintenance bibl^H^H^H^Hmanual, which apparently some experts have access to. In reality, it is a highly dynamic, self-repairing living organism, which we are a part of. There are at least as many negative feedback loops as positive…
The question is whether humanity will continue to exist within it.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Given a full collapse, wouldn't the UK resemble northern Canada?
There is a good way to see the problem in a second Think about New York, is at 40 degrees N latitude. This means that if NY would be in the Atlantic coast of Europe would fall in Portugal! a little North to Lisbon! (38ºN). Sometimes Is easy to forget that NY is "Southern Europe" league. Southern than the North Coast of Spain. Now lets see Quebec (53ºN). Well, London is 51ºN. Without the sea current bringing hot tropi…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…
critical thinking skills, don't believe everything that you see, perform your own independent investigation of truth.
How would one possibly do that here?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes. We're not sleepwalking to an uninhabitable dystopia, we're sprinting towards it. We may all be in for some serious problems in 5 to 10 years. I'm not a climate scientist, this is just an uninformed opinion, but everything I'm reading has me very worried.
There are challenges to overcome but thinking of the future as dystopia can be counterproductive.