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A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

nature.com

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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#191

Post by Tiktaalik »

pphysch wrote: post #182
layer8 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it is a highly dynamic, self-repairing living organism Organisms are self-repairing (to a certain extent) because they evolved to be so due to natural selection. The Earth as a whole and its climate are not subject to evolutionary pressure (they don’t reproduce) and thus are nothing like that.

The biosphere is composed of countless suborganisms that have become highly stable over eons of evolutionary pressure.

they are evolved to the current climate. Climate change is the sort of disruptive pressure that will wipe the slate clean and enable new creatures to evolve in the aftermath new normal (see: dinosaurs being replaced by mammals).

That the earth "will survive" is not in question. What is relevant is ensuring the survival of all the creatures that are evolved to the current status quo, which includes us and our current way of life.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#192

Post by californical »

boondoggle16 wrote: post #137
layer8 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it is a highly dynamic, self-repairing living organism Organisms are self-repairing (to a certain extent) because they evolved to be so due to natural selection. The Earth as a whole and its climate are not subject to evolutionary pressure (they don’t reproduce) and thus are nothing like that.

Actually, the earth is subject to evolutionary pressure in a sense. This is the only planet that supports life (that we know of). That's because it's natural properties endured through billions of years to support life. It's not exactly an arms race. And it's a different, but similar mechanism. But I think the underlying principles are the same. In this case, evolution won't look like the earth changing over time. It…

It’s definitely not subject to evolutionary pressure of any sort, because the earth is completely indifferent to life.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#193

Post by throwaway290 »

jacquesm wrote: post #104
Biologist123 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…

Like you would any other thing that is outside your circle of influence: kick it out of your circle of concern because you aren't realistically speaking geared up to move yourself into a position where you do have influence. If you don't you end up with the global equivalent of a burn-out and it might start to affect your ability to make decisions about things that you do have influence over because it is paralyzing…

As always I disagree... This is the attitude that "people in charge will do something for you, and if they don't I guess we'll cope" that is undemocratic and breeds passivity.

if you are concerned about something it does not mean you must be non stop stressed or forever abandon your life for single cause. You can be concerned and act in constructive ways (lead by example, talk about it, raise the issue, vote, etc), making strategic sacrifices but also living life. In fact you will probably be more satisfied this way than if you just felt you can't do anything and tried to not think about the white elephant. And it is the only way things change...

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#194

Post by ajmurmann »

RandomLensman wrote: post #166
Fricken wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of an irrelevant point to make. We're setting new emissions records, so nothing so far has been productive.

What has not worked either so far is ever stronger talk about impending doom. We might have to contemplate things like geoengineering or whatever but thinking the future is bad is not enough. There has to be a positive vision, too.

There are plenty of ideas like carbon tax, or more clumsy ones like higher gasoline tax, banning gasoline cars, etc. But no country has sufficient buy-in to do anything that even just is a little inconvenient.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#195

Post by Auracle »

mrguyorama wrote: post #184
timmg wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking of which, I recently saw this: https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-ipcc-actually-... which is kinda a review of what IPCC report says about "extreme weather". For me, this summary is a lot different than the way I see this aspect talked about in the media (and on Twitter, etc) even by climate scientists.

This article isn't great. He says "the IPCC says we won't see extreme weather until 2100.... (except for extreme heat and cold which the IPCC says is already here)" Okay? A lot of the discourse is explicitly about the heat and cold.

But every hurricane season we hear it, it’s been talked about with the Canadian wildfires, locally in Minnesota they’ve been blaming our recent droughts on it, etc.

It wasn’t all that long ago that interviewed climate scientists would say that you couldn’t attribute individual events to climate change. Now they constantly do. I feel like I hear it every other time I tune in to NPR.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#196

Post by olddustytrail »

MrOwnPut wrote: post #180
olddustytrail wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Europe has increased both, regardless of their rhetoric. Meanwhile, back in the real world: https://ip-quarterly.com/sites/default/files/styles/dgap_tea...

That does not include energy outsourced.

Nor do your US figures. Not least because you failed to present any.

But include them if you can. The graphs look the same.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#197

Post by dotancohen »

joshuaheard wrote: post #171
oceanthrowaway wrote: post #32

I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…

The article says the collapse would cause an ice age in Northern Europe. Would that "cure" global warming?

No.

Global warming is the effect of decreased solar radiation (as compared to how much solar energy is absorbed), thus more energy added to the Earth. A new ice age in Norther Europe might slightly increase that area's albido, which would increase solar radiation and in theory mitigate global warming. But truth is, the effect of that change in albido will be very small compared to the effect of the atmospheric CO2 (which traps the solar radiation).

Europe may be colder, but somewhere else is going to be much, much hotter.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#198

Post by hunter-gatherer »

jacquesm wrote: post #104
Biologist123 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…

Like you would any other thing that is outside your circle of influence: kick it out of your circle of concern because you aren't realistically speaking geared up to move yourself into a position where you do have influence. If you don't you end up with the global equivalent of a burn-out and it might start to affect your ability to make decisions about things that you do have influence over because it is paralyzing…

Man... this is the most fatalist comment I've read in a while but I suspect your prescription to the problem is the correct one.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#199

Post by snowwrestler »

philipkglass wrote: post #106
snowwrestler wrote: post #48

One of the predictions related to global warming that seems to surprise people is that most of the predicted sea level rise is attributed to the thermal expansion of warmer sea water. So when we think about major changes in how the ocean absorbs and distributes heat, we’re also thinking about how sea level will change in certain areas vs others. If the ocean starts storing a lot more heat around Cuba than Great Brita…

I don't think that is true. The oceans around Cuba and Great Britain are not separate bodies of water. Volumetric expansion from heating gets flattened out across all connected bodies of water by gravity. You could see differences of geography in how much different lakes expand, though.

This isn’t hypothetical, water temperature is already known to be one factor in deviations of regional sea level from global sea level.

If the conditions that create the heat differential are persistent, the height difference will persist as well.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#200

Post by cryoshon »

MrOwnPut wrote: post #132
sfn42 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, everything that's been predicted for decades is happening but it could just be a total coincidence. And if it isn't I'm sure they'll just magically figure out economically viable fusion or spray some aerosols into the atmosphere or somehow just magically fix everything. I'm sure everything will be fine. That's why I'm not having kids. /s

[flagged]

The world is palpably warmer today than when we were children. Likewise, it was not always the case that summers were characterized by weeks of choking wildfire smoke.

Who are you going to believe: the warmth felt by your own skin, or the people telling you that nothing is wrong, and that global heating isn't something to be concerned about? Psychologically it's more comfortable to choose the latter because it implies things can stay the same without trouble. But it's only viable to do so if you can suppress the cognitive dissonance.

The planet is burning.

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