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A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

nature.com

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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#161

Post by nerpderp82 »

refulgentis wrote: post #140
oceanthrowaway wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are completely correct I regret that word choice now. I was rushing to comment because I felt it was important to provide context on AMOC collapse scholarship.

Memento mori: top comment made the same mistake[1], your contributions reinforced the top comment, and your separate individual reply is the second comment. Rushing to comment has deep effects on HN, the threading incentivizes appending to the top comments rather than replying. This will now be a philosophical debate about scientific trust for hours just because people assume the article says "collapse is happening s…

This is the single biggest flaw in how HN discussions are formed. I almost always downvote the top comment. Often they completely derail any sort of meaningful discussion. I have fantasized around a "forum garden" where we could experiment with other ways of facilitating discussions.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#164

Post by [deleted] »

jacquesm wrote: post #104
Biologist123 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…

Like you would any other thing that is outside your circle of influence: kick it out of your circle of concern because you aren't realistically speaking geared up to move yourself into a position where you do have influence. If you don't you end up with the global equivalent of a burn-out and it might start to affect your ability to make decisions about things that you do have influence over because it is paralyzing…

[deleted]

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#165

Post by bathMarm0t »

mym1990 wrote: post #57

This has been on my mind this past week(and is only lightly tangential)...but would we be able to observe adaptations being made by plants/animals/ecosystems on a timescale of years or decades...to the changing climate? Humans will be playing mental gymnastics and politics for quite a while before any true changes to move the needle are made...but all other biological things can just make the adaptations...given enou…

It's already being observed. Bird migrations have been happening earlier/later, and ranges of birds have increased. I'm sure the same thing is happening for whales / ocean animals.

According to this one[1], they're adapting by leaving later, and flying faster/taking less breaks to make up for the lost time. The result being that less of them make it to the breeding grounds (6% decrease in survival rate).

[1] https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2023/04/risky-strategy-help...

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#166

Post by RandomLensman »

Fricken wrote: post #110
RandomLensman wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are challenges to overcome but thinking of the future as dystopia can be counterproductive.

Kind of an irrelevant point to make. We're setting new emissions records, so nothing so far has been productive.

What has not worked either so far is ever stronger talk about impending doom.

We might have to contemplate things like geoengineering or whatever but thinking the future is bad is not enough. There has to be a positive vision, too.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#167

Post by TSiege »

chriskanan wrote: post #122
braaannigan wrote: post #50

I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…

The journal is Nature Communications, which has a much lower impact factor than Nature. Many of the papers rejected from Nature are encouraged to be automatically transferred to Nature Communications. One nice thing about Nature Communications is that one can read the reviews: https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs414...

This is excellent. Thank you for sharing. I had no idea you could read the reviewers notes and feedback

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#168

Post by bonestamp2 »

nerpderp82 wrote: post #161
refulgentis wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Memento mori: top comment made the same mistake[1], your contributions reinforced the top comment, and your separate individual reply is the second comment. Rushing to comment has deep effects on HN, the threading incentivizes appending to the top comments rather than replying. This will now be a philosophical debate about scientific trust for hours just because people assume the article says "collapse is happening s…

This is the single biggest flaw in how HN discussions are formed. I almost always downvote the top comment. Often they completely derail any sort of meaningful discussion. I have fantasized around a "forum garden" where we could experiment with other ways of facilitating discussions.

There should at least be several ways to sort the comments (like reddit) and then each page load should randomly select one way to sort it unless a user has explicitly set a sort method preference in their account settings.

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#169

Post by thumbuddy »

oceanthrowaway wrote: post #32

I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…

So say it does collapse, in layman's terms what does that mean?

Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

#170

Post by olddustytrail »

MrOwnPut wrote: post #142
Fricken wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of an irrelevant point to make. We're setting new emissions records, so nothing so far has been productive.

Who is "we"? The US has reduced emissions records while increasing energy output for a number of years now. Europe has increased both, regardless of their rhetoric. China of course has increased both as well with more coal plants being built. Most of the reduction in the US is thanks to fracking/nat.gas displacing coal. Which a lot of people are against. Focusing on nuclear could get us a lot farther in displacing fo…

> Europe has increased both, regardless of their rhetoric.

Meanwhile, back in the real world: https://ip-quarterly.com/sites/default/files/styles/dgap_tea...

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