A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Post by doublepg23 » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

dkarl wrote: post #79

PeterStuer wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've been very surprised as to which studies made it to nature over the past decade. I can't help but conclude that the influence of (politial) bias has been steadily growing over the years. (Fwiw, i'm personally taking the climate change subject extremely serious).

> Fwiw, i'm personally taking the climate change subject extremely serious It's not worth anything, since the conservative rear guard and even outright deniers say the same thing these days. If you mean to separate yourself from such people, you'll have to put it differently.

Post by oceanthrowaway » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:35 PM UTC

Terretta wrote: post #83

oceanthrowaway wrote: post #32

I’m a physical oceanographer. While I have only skimmed this article I would like to make two quick comments. 1) The AMOC is one of the most studied parts of the world ocean and predictions about its collapse have been made since Stommel in 1961. I think in general any study on its imminent collapse should be taken with a grain of salt and it would be wise to wait for further replication and the consensus of the comm…

The terms "imminent" and "predict the time" seem like missing the point of the article you acknowledged you have only skimmed. I felt the article was clear collapse is not imminent, not even in this century. I felt it noted focus was not on imminence, but on changes worth mentioning in aspects of interest. Perhaps the difference is this article is talking of timing for transitions of significance, rather than the for…

Post by sigspec » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:36 PM UTC

Biologist123 wrote: post #90

braaannigan wrote: post #50

I've got a background in this field and I am very surprised to see this published in Nature. The model presented is purely statistical with no representation of the underlying physics. When we are dealing with a phenomenon that is driven by well-understood physical laws (e.g. geophysical fluid dynamics, radiation physics etc) then these physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction. When I say physical m…

As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…

Post by Biologist123 » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:37 PM UTC

sigspec wrote: post #95

Biologist123 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a lay-bystander to the climate debate, I get a little spooked when I see comments like this. Like 99.9% of people, the science of complex climate systems is beyond me as are the de facto black box models that project climate change. Instead I use “appears in a credible journal” as a basis for trusting the apparent direction of travel and I’m disconcerted when I see that proxy challenged. I also, I am somewhat sorr…

Bourbon

Post by pphysch » Tue, Jul 25, 2023, 5:38 PM UTC

jfim wrote: post #53

pphysch wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> compound and significantly accelerate the timeline There's a misconception that the biosphere is a delicate machine that will have a catastrophic internal failure if we don't follow the maintenance bibl^H^H^H^Hmanual, which apparently some experts have access to. In reality, it is a highly dynamic, self-repairing living organism, which we are a part of. There are at least as many negative feedback loops as positive…

> Doomsaying and fearmongering is about power. Because every warning is about power dynamics, and obviously not about things being dangerous. We should get rid of that "can cause death if ingested" cartel that's putting all of those warnings on household products while at it.