If the authors of the paper are reading this forum I bet them €10,000 (in 2023 money) that this event (collapse of the AMOC) will not occur this century.
I bet €10,000 that the government will use this as an excuse to raise our taxes anyway.
A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
21–30 of 324 posts
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#22> Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of…
If nothing else, the UK would more closely resemble central Europe, as I understand it - colder winters, hotter summers
Given a full collapse, wouldn't the UK resemble northern Canada?
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#23An article from livescience.com that may be worth a read. TLDR: if slowdown occurs, temperatures could drop by 5C in Europe and North America. What a 5C drop actually looks like they don't say. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf...
I suppose that energy still has to go somewhere. Which place will warm up if Europe and North America cool down?
I'm not a climate scientist but I'd reason that the tropics would experience greater heating resulting from the stagnation of the warm water that would previously circulate. More warm water in the tropics would result in more frequent and more intense hurricanes, so if the AMOC stops then we'll see even more extreme weather records smashed.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#24> Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of…
If nothing else, the UK would more closely resemble central Europe, as I understand it - colder winters, hotter summers
I wonder if it would also mean that South America gets hotter, since that stream was carrying heat from SA to Europe
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#25If the authors of the paper are reading this forum I bet them €10,000 (in 2023 money) that this event (collapse of the AMOC) will not occur this century.
Why stop there? I know plenty of PhD’s who would love to make bets with you about topics in their field - probably easy money for a smart guy like you!
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#26An article from livescience.com that may be worth a read. TLDR: if slowdown occurs, temperatures could drop by 5C in Europe and North America. What a 5C drop actually looks like they don't say. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf...
At this point we can’t even manage 0.1C, how are we going to get 5C?
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#27An article from livescience.com that may be worth a read. TLDR: if slowdown occurs, temperatures could drop by 5C in Europe and North America. What a 5C drop actually looks like they don't say. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf...
How does that 5C drop interact with the rise that we're currently concerned about? (Heatwave, wildfires in the med etc). I'm guessing it's hopelessly naive to assume it'll just... kinda cancel each other out?
The net energy of the system will remain the same, just distributed somewhere else.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#28An article from livescience.com that may be worth a read. TLDR: if slowdown occurs, temperatures could drop by 5C in Europe and North America. What a 5C drop actually looks like they don't say. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf...
Over what timeframe?
Edit: a decade.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#29> Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of…
Ireland and Great Britain are at about the same latitude as Labrador in Canada, but benefit from heat transported across the North Atlantic from the Caribbean by warm water. Absent the current that is transporting that warm water, one would expect the GB climate to more closely resemble Labrador’s. In other words, much colder.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#30> Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of…
> Wikipedia suggests that temperatures in northern Europe would drop significantly + sea levels would rise, but is that all?
Depends on the drop and the rise.
Open a world map, and draw parallels passing where large Northern European cities are. [1]
E.g. Canada's Montreal roughly corresponds to Paris.
[1] Or this gif from reddit: https://preview.redd.it/dm7xwsmp3aa81.gif?format=mp4&s=a1673...
