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Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

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Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#351

Post by ClumsyPilot »

TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #335
JumpinJack_Cash wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, Sure and the guy is getting paid right now in cold hard cash, while all the synchopants keep ranting about hopes and dreams. As Jack Nicholson said in 'the Departed' and I quote : "What we generally do - in this country... is one guy brings the items and the other guy pays him. No tickee, no laundry!" First the self-driving car for all Am…

My point was Elon has an incredible track record of success which follows a formula of overhype, delays, and eventual achievement if not overachievement. You seem to have a more personal vendetta against him, I’m just looking at his insane success and envying hype/ management style

> My point was Elon has an incredible track record of success which follows a formula of overhype, delays, and eventual achievement if not overachievement.

His biggest success is the rocket industry. Let's examine top competitors - corrupt ULA which flies rockets on 50 year old engines and does cost+ contracts, his other competitor was Russia, a corrupt kleptocracy that stopped innovating when USSR fell apart. Russia would sell engines physically made in USSR to ULA. This market literally had no competition and no innovation for like 40 years.

So yes, his great achievement is that he could march finance into an industry that no-one would consider for investment. But results in other industries were not so great.

Tesla had a head start on electric, but they could not take advantage of this. Once other manufacturers woke up to the threat, it became clear Tesla has nothing on them, and car industry is fiercely competitive. His leadership was not good enough to take advantage of the head start he had and extremely high level of finance that he had.

Where is cybertruck? Other automakers are already selling electric trucks. VW and even Chinese automakers are eating Tesla's lunch.

Elon's boring company is an abject failure, as is hyperloop.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#352

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #335
JumpinJack_Cash wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, Sure and the guy is getting paid right now in cold hard cash, while all the synchopants keep ranting about hopes and dreams. As Jack Nicholson said in 'the Departed' and I quote : "What we generally do - in this country... is one guy brings the items and the other guy pays him. No tickee, no laundry!" First the self-driving car for all Am…

My point was Elon has an incredible track record of success which follows a formula of overhype, delays, and eventual achievement if not overachievement. You seem to have a more personal vendetta against him, I’m just looking at his insane success and envying hype/ management style

Success is measured by hypothetical subtraction.

If you disappeared Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, Twitter and even Mr.Musk overnight, the world would look exactly the same the following morning.

Try and disappear Apple, Microsoft, Cisco, Boeing, JPMorgan, BankofAmerica, Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell overnight.

You'll have chaos and civil unrest within a week. That's where your quality of life comes from, sure it's not as exciting aas drinking the kool-aid of future Mars colonies and self driving cars and 100% domination in the EV cars sector, but at least it's real

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#353

Post by dmix »

JumpinJack_Cash wrote: post #341
philippejara wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And is bought by people that think the company is valuable enough to give the stock said value. You can argue that those people are wrong, sure, but I don't get what point you're trying to make. He isn't taking money away from someone else or being given "underserved" rewards, when the people that are keeping the value of what he receives believes it to be of such value.

Point is that you first sign off the effing self-driving car, then you get your effing money. That is what we used to do in America, since the days of JD Rockefeller, Henry Ford...but also Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and Larry Ellison. I mean I used Windows before Gates became richest man in the world and so did hundreds of millions of people. Musk got to #1 by selling go karts to a handful of rich people and promises…

How do you expect self driving cars, or any extremely hard technology, to come about then without long term risk capital via public/private investment? Just pure R&D working out of universities and gov labs? Let them perfect it and only then try to raise capital? Go back to the Rockefeller days before there was venture capital and mature public markets?

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#354

Post by rootusrootus »

TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #151
jyscao wrote: post #55

IMO Tesla would be better if they focused solely on making good EVs, rather than also trying to become the leader in self-driving. I get that they're trying to create a wider moat against their competitors, but if their self-driving software are found to have systematic failure modes in them as these internal docs seem to suggest, then that could very well do more harm to their reputation in the long run.

Elons point on cars being worth 5x as much with self driving shouldn’t be dismissed. If a car that costs $25,000 to manufacture all of a sudden can be driven 40-50 hours a week automatically, how much is that car now worth? So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation.

First Tesla would have to make a car with plausible hardware for self driving. Not decade+ old cameras trying to do everything. Can't even reliably wipe the windshield at the right time. The idea of robotaxis is just a fantasy.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#355

Post by HyperSane »

TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #151
jyscao wrote: post #55

IMO Tesla would be better if they focused solely on making good EVs, rather than also trying to become the leader in self-driving. I get that they're trying to create a wider moat against their competitors, but if their self-driving software are found to have systematic failure modes in them as these internal docs seem to suggest, then that could very well do more harm to their reputation in the long run.

Elons point on cars being worth 5x as much with self driving shouldn’t be dismissed. If a car that costs $25,000 to manufacture all of a sudden can be driven 40-50 hours a week automatically, how much is that car now worth? So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation.

Elon Musk is a modern day P. T. Barnum and Tesla will never have full self driving cars on the market.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#356

Post by dmix »

liendolucas wrote: post #196
advael wrote: post #6

Gatekeep, gaslight, girlboss The official policy to deprive customers and victims of information as much as possible is shocking from the standpoint of being flagrantly, cynically customer-hostile to the point of probable illegality, but it's right out of both Musk's normal playbook and that of his erstwhile colleagues at e.g. Paypal For me, cars cross a very key danger threshold, which I express like this: "I am tru…

I'll go a bit further... Do we really need computers on four wheels? Can't we just have simple electric vehicles without all the high-tech? No distracting screens, no computer for other than just governing the electric engine, no fancy car locks, and so on. I don't understand why we need to put so much technology in a vehicle. Honestly, it seems to me that is absolutely unnecessary tech, ridiculous. I'd like to have…

It's funny how humans repeat the same patterns repeatedly in history: new technology development happens, optimist expect it to happen way faster than realistically possible, they make progress but the initial output is rocky as all new things are before they mature. Luddites/conservatives come in and point at the rocky start, the societal disruption before it normalizes, the early financial losers who bought into over optimistic projections, etc as the reasons why we shouldn't have bothered in the first place. Then it comes out, the tech matures, society adapts, new rules are made, lessons are recorded but rarely listened to, and everyone moves on to the next thing.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#357

Post by bombolo »

the_pwner224 wrote: post #250
liendolucas wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll go a bit further... Do we really need computers on four wheels? Can't we just have simple electric vehicles without all the high-tech? No distracting screens, no computer for other than just governing the electric engine, no fancy car locks, and so on. I don't understand why we need to put so much technology in a vehicle. Honestly, it seems to me that is absolutely unnecessary tech, ridiculous. I'd like to have…

> Can't we just have simple electric vehicles without all the high-tech? No, because ~nobody would buy them. > I don't understand why we need to put so much technology in a vehicle. Because 99% of people want it. Not everyone wants everything, buy each group of people wants some features and the end result is that you have to stuff your car full of tech to be competitive in the modern car market. And this isn't an EV…

People don't care. We have them because they cost less to build than having buttons.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#358

Post by bentley »

epolanski wrote: post #288
carstenhag wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it is necessary. People want it. I want to be able to connect my phone to the car. To be able to use a navigation app. I'm not going back to reading maps (also, I never started).

Navigators have been in cars two decades at this point.

And they are universally poorer quality than the default navigation apps on phones.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#359

Post by swader999 »

TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #282
rurp wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon doesn't actually believe that Tesla cars are about to quintuple in value now, any more than he did 7+ years ago when he first started saying it; that's just marketing BS. > So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation. Yes, and most Gamestop investors think the company is going to be the next Amazon. Buying a popular meme stock doesn't make their predictions right.

And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, so his dream is gonna be delayed 5-10 years like most of his other major ones. It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?

"It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?" Can they even build a strong enough launch pad to handle starship?

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#360

Post by ClumsyPilot »

kibwen wrote: post #299
manquer wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point being they could eliminate the human drivers and take the whole revenue instead of sharing it. From ridesharing company PoV right now they are only taking 30%-50% of the revenue, and they have gaps in meeting demand due to resourcing challenges. The business model is pretty solid if self driving taxis work even if its only in urban and suburbs

Except that currently all the drivers also manage the inventory of physical cars, and all maintenance, and all legal liability. The parent's question is a good one. Owning and operating a fleet of cars is the core competency of a rental agency , not a ride-hailing app.

> and all legal liability.

People really do not understand that the Companies like Uber, Airbnb and Deliveroo make a huge amount of money from offloading liability - it's suddenly not Deliveroo's fault that the guy delivering your pizza in London does this on illegal, unroadworthy e-bikewith no insurance, and in case of a crash he is liable. Airbnb routinely rents out apartments in blocks that have this forbidden in the leave / rental agreement.

If the human is gone, then liability offloading is impossible. You have noone to blame. That liability off-load is worth more to deliveroo than is the pittance they pay him.

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