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Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

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Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#331

Post by ilyt »

Fatnino wrote: post #286
ilyt wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'll go a bit further... Do we really need computers on four wheels? Can't we just have simple electric vehicles without all the high-tech? No distracting screens, no computer for other than just governing the electric engine, no fancy car locks, and so on. I'd love to, the problem is it would get some pitifully low NCAP rating (because lack of active securities would bring the score down and I remember it is && de…

You can get a new head unit with android auto for like 200 bucks or there abouts.

Well, yeah, in my current on, but if it is new car with integrated tablet style infotainment you might not have place to put it and would have to look for something specifically made to fit it.

And might have A/C controls built into infotainment...

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#332

Post by freejazz »

TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #151
jyscao wrote: post #55

IMO Tesla would be better if they focused solely on making good EVs, rather than also trying to become the leader in self-driving. I get that they're trying to create a wider moat against their competitors, but if their self-driving software are found to have systematic failure modes in them as these internal docs seem to suggest, then that could very well do more harm to their reputation in the long run.

Elons point on cars being worth 5x as much with self driving shouldn’t be dismissed. If a car that costs $25,000 to manufacture all of a sudden can be driven 40-50 hours a week automatically, how much is that car now worth? So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation.

Cars aren't suddenly going to cost more because of that...

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#333

Post by Gustomaximus »

taneq wrote: post #326
TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elons point on cars being worth 5x as much with self driving shouldn’t be dismissed. If a car that costs $25,000 to manufacture all of a sudden can be driven 40-50 hours a week automatically, how much is that car now worth? So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation.

> If a car that costs $25,000 to manufacture all of a sudden can be driven 40-50 hours a week automatically, how much is that car now worth? That week of driving is worth what an Uber driver’s take-home pay would be for the same week after finance (or equivalent lost interest if you buy with cash), insurance, on-road costs, charging, maintenance, depreciation, and whatever intangible value you put on not having hundr…

Less as that cost component is removed and replaced with an ROI on the cars costs.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#334

Post by threeseed »

kortex wrote: post #306
threeseed wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also our binocular vision is movable unlike cars. Which is how we determine depth when there is occlusion ie. we move our head.

And cars have multiple cameras simultaneously in 360° overlapping coverage. Plus you have motion parallax.

Neither of which completely solves the problem of how to determine the depth of objects in the scene.

We move our head to ascertain depth. LiDAR uses laser pulses.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#335

Post by TheCaptain4815 »

JumpinJack_Cash wrote: post #311
TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, so his dream is gonna be delayed 5-10 years like most of his other major ones. It’s now 2013, want to see a video of Starship taking off?

> > And he’s admitted self driving was way more difficult than anyone realized, Sure and the guy is getting paid right now in cold hard cash, while all the synchopants keep ranting about hopes and dreams. As Jack Nicholson said in 'the Departed' and I quote : "What we generally do - in this country... is one guy brings the items and the other guy pays him. No tickee, no laundry!" First the self-driving car for all Am…

My point was Elon has an incredible track record of success which follows a formula of overhype, delays, and eventual achievement if not overachievement.

You seem to have a more personal vendetta against him, I’m just looking at his insane success and envying hype/ management style

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#336

Post by jliptzin »

highwaylights wrote: post #310
TheCaptain4815 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elons point on cars being worth 5x as much with self driving shouldn’t be dismissed. If a car that costs $25,000 to manufacture all of a sudden can be driven 40-50 hours a week automatically, how much is that car now worth? So I totally disagree on that end, as do most investors given teslas enormous valuation.

Even if that reasoning were true, the valuation for Tesla doesn’t make much sense, given they’re not remotely close to a self-driving car in the way that the average customer would understand it. They’re not delayed by a few years. The problem is intractable , unless you can limit the journey to a controlled scope. I drive over multiple pathways and grassy lanes a week that aren’t mapped and have no markings. A self-…

FSD is a very small component of Tesla' current stock price. Some dumbasses are certainly buying Tesla because they think FSD is right around the corner, but dumbasses tend to not have a lot of money.

For any Tesla price estimate, you've got to pick a number, how many million vehicles the company will ship in say 2025.

Then pick an Average Selling Price, profit margin, and P/E multiple.

Divide by 3 billion to get the price per share of your estimate.

Considering Tesla is on track to deliver 1.8M vehicles this year and the delivery growth trajectory it's been on, 4M is a good target goal for 2025, $45k ASP, 10% profit margin, 30 P/E . . . from that I get $180, so today's price is fair as a base case for 2025.

$400 was a nice top in 2022 and I think we'll see it before 2025 as Tesla Energy starts contributing to the bottom line, each $1B of profit from energy is worth $10 on the share price (30 P/E, 3B shares).

If you think $180 for Tesla is way too high you have to account for that in the model...either 2025 deliveries will be a lot less than 4 million, or 10% profit margin will come way down, or P/E will come way down below 30 (it's currently 51).

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/13obftu...

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#337

Post by chrisbolt »

avereveard wrote: post #77
eterevsky wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When a manufacturer is selling millions of cars, I think it's better to judge their safety using statistics rather than some qualitative reasoning. Are Teslas measurably less safe than other cars? I.e. is the accident probability per km driven on a Tesla higher than on another car? I haven't seen any data suggesting that, but I'm happy to be corrected.

Tela insurance is way more expensive than other cars.

Are you referring to insurance on a Tesla car sold by third parties, or the insurance that Tesla sells for their cars in some but not all states in the US?

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#338

Post by adamwong246 »

api wrote: post #278
adamwong246 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"FOSS self-driving cars" is a dream so bold I dare not dream it. In some other timeline, we have had an "internet of roads" built on cooperative standards. Instead we have trendy death-traps that make fart noises sold as status symbols.

There’s a company called comma that has something close.

Designing Robo-vehicles and the infra to support them requires "real" engineering, not SV style fail-fast "engineering". The task should be left to the government, along the lines of the Eisenhower Interstate Highway System.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#339

Post by philippejara »

JumpinJack_Cash wrote: post #321
austhrow743 wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is paid in stock not cash.

that he regularly sells.

And is bought by people that think the company is valuable enough to give the stock said value. You can argue that those people are wrong, sure, but I don't get what point you're trying to make. He isn't taking money away from someone else or being given "underserved" rewards, when the people that are keeping the value of what he receives believes it to be of such value.

Re: Whistleblower drops 100 GB of Tesla secrets to German news site

#340

Post by cypress66 »

olyjohn wrote: post #186
cypress66 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All car brands ADAS are imperfect. If it phantom brakes you just push the accelerator, or simply don't use the ADAS. You can drive the car normally, you aren't forced to use ADAS if you don't like it.

Yeah just gotta turn it off every single time you get in the car.

No? What are you talking about. Just like basic cruise control, you don't have to "turn it off". It just doesn't work until you don't enable.
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