SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss • Hacker News Board

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#111

Post by SoftTalker » Thu, May 11, 2023, 10:42 PM UTC

bombcar wrote: post #57

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

as an end user, I got a pretty good deal for quite a while. I'm always surprised that VCs assume that customers are morons and will keep buying the same product even when its not a good deal anymore. Uber's terms of the deal changed, so I don't buy the product anymore. Simple as.

The goal is to kill all the alternatives so you have no choice. Uber wanted to kill all taxis everywhere, then they'd have a monopoly.

Uber wanted to attack all the things that were bad about legacy taxi service. They did, and it was better for many people. But they were foolish if they thought taxi services would not respond and competitors would not emerge.

Ultimately they wanted their cars to be self-driving. They don't want to pay drivers at all. But there was and is no proof that it is possible in the time frame of their runway.

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#112

Post by prottog » Thu, May 11, 2023, 10:42 PM UTC

NotYourLawyer wrote: post #59

unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tale old as time, they never quit when they're ahead.[1] [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Livermore

Hwang couldn’t have unwound his massive positions without crashing the prices. There was no quitting while you’re ahead for him. I still really don’t understand what game he was playing.

He definitely could have unwound his positions quietly over time. He'd have moved prices, sure, and his profits would have been less than what was marked to market, but nothing would have crashed. Forced selling from margin calls is what crashes prices.

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#113

Post by lotsofpulp » Thu, May 11, 2023, 10:44 PM UTC

jsemrau wrote: post #14

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #4

> Yoshimitsu Goto, the tech conglomerate’s chief financial officer, said on Thursday that the company would not miss opportunities to invest in new technology such as ChatGPT, but cautioned that it was not ready to accelerate its deal activity. Apparently Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman didn't read the classic essay: "Goto considered harmful" before making massive investments in SoftBank.

My favourite conspiracy theory lately is that the Saudis needed to increase the oil price to recover losses from their VC investments.

And like most conspiracy theories, it makes no sense. As if businesses choose to sell at a lower price than they could be selling at, and then switch to selling at a higher price if they feel like earning more money. Especially with a fungible commodity like oil.

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#114

Post by prottog » Thu, May 11, 2023, 10:44 PM UTC

vxNsr wrote: post #86

sremani wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not sophisticated investor or commodities trader -- but I do not think Oil prices work that way. The problem for Saudis always has been whatever cuts to production they make were fulfilled by others who exceed the quota. There are many oil rich but cash desperate parties out there. It's much easy for Saudis to create a panic than delicately reach a target price. May be I am wrong, but experienced commodity trade…

That’s why it was so helpful to them when Biden was elected, he immediately implemented policies that futures traders felt spelled decrease in supply both short and long term, that along w the war in Ukraine made for a very successful year.

And yet crude oil prices are now lower than they were prior to the breakout of the war in February 2022. Funny things, these markets!

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#115

Post by Danieru » Thu, May 11, 2023, 10:44 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #105

httpz wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He started from nothing and he's still a billionaire so I wouldn't just dismiss him like that. He's just a different type of businessman who likes making big risky bets.

People on this forum should be very happy a guy like him exists who can efficiently transfer wealth from rich Middle Easterners to employees of tech companies.

Except get this: that middle east money is safe. It is softbank itself which takes the upside and downside to the vision fund. The middle east money earns a fixed and constant return.

I am very glad I sold my softbank shares two years ago. Son is a gambler with horrible bet sizing skills.

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#116

Post by lotsofpulp » Thu, May 11, 2023, 10:46 PM UTC

maerF0x0 wrote: post #87

mrguyorama wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's almost like none of them had any actual value, and the vast majority of them were just attempts to crush and take over existing markets using outside war chests.

I think a very large percent of them had a nonzero value, but the issue is if you can get 4% guaranteed return on cash, vs risky 1% return on cash suddenly the asset is worth less than before. But if you can get unlimited money at 0% you might as well invest it on 1% return bets. You're still making money on others' money.

I would have thought the issue was the lack of net income.

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#117

Post by kergonath » Thu, May 11, 2023, 10:55 PM UTC

zeristor wrote: post #99

grumple wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I was in London a few weeks ago the taxi prices were 2-3x the uber prices. Also they'd tell you to fuck off if they didn't want to take you to that location.

Did you ask to go South of The River?

Why would you ever do that? There is nothing south of the river. If there were anything worthwhile, they would have a tube station around.

(I kid, I live in Peckham).

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#118

Post by kikokikokiko » Thu, May 11, 2023, 11:01 PM UTC

williamDafoe wrote: post #8

Their massive early investment in Uber distorted their reality and they expected ride sharing to be incredibly successful in other markets when it's not even successful in the USA - it's a fraud that pays below minimum wage off the backs of people who cannot do math. It has never made money anywhere ... ARM has had a laziness problem ever since the Apple A1 chip - there's a reason why nobody uses their 6-yr old layou…

"...it's a fraud that pays below minimum wage off the backs of people who cannot do math..."

Oh, the superiority complex of the white collar masses over the poor blue collar morons. I always like to talk with the Uber drivers down here in Brazil, and probably 50% or more aren't even the owners of the cars. They lease from a local version of "Hertz", and after paying for all the expenses, still take home an amount of money that is way above what they were getting on their prior jobs. I have talked to all range of drivers, from ex engineers to ex burger flippers. It infuriates me when I hear this argument that all gig economy workers are "dumb desperate morons that can't do math". People are not as dumb as you think.

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#119

Post by crazygringo » Thu, May 11, 2023, 11:10 PM UTC

henry2023 wrote: post #54

crazygringo wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not being incredibly successful doesn't make it a fraud. I don't think anybody invested in it because Uber misrepresented the market.

Design and implement over engineered solutions to avoid paying minimum wage across dozens of countries seems at least a little sketchy.

Still not fraud though. And it's not exactly like the existing taxicab industry wasn't already sketchy/exploitative. The whole point of Uber is that it's a massive improvement over what came before.

Re: SoftBank Vision funds post record $39B annual loss

#120

Post by HDThoreaun » Thu, May 11, 2023, 11:14 PM UTC

crazygringo wrote: post #41

jjeaff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's basically an inefficient, but effective way to siphon money from the poor and middle class and deposit it into the bank accounts of the wealthy by utilizing the equity the poor and middle class have in their vehicles.

Nobody's forced to work for Uber. It's not "siphoning" money from anybody. Drivers are driving for it because it's the best job available -- often because of the flexibility that lets them do it around other scheduled commitments. Take that opportunity away and they become worse off, not better.

Drivers are doing it because they can't do math. Uber pays below minimum wage after accounting for contractor taxes and gas and car maintenance, but workers just see gross income and think it's good.