Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

sfchronicle.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 388 posts

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#61

Post by kibwen »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

Not all industries will be equally impacted by WFH. SF is being gutted because the only equipment a programmer needs is a computer. If you're looking for a healthy metro area that will weather the WFH realignment, look for one whose primary industries require equipment that you can't pick up at Best Buy. Things like healthcare, biotech, and research universities (just to name a few) will still require butts in seats. Off the top of my head, Boston, Pittsburgh, Cleveland will be fine. NYC might be impacted because of the finance industry, but it's also plenty diversified.

(Furthermore, in the long term SF will be fine because the geography and climate is beautiful, and people will always be clamoring to live there regardless of industry, in the same way people desire to live in Honolulu. But it's in for a rough time in the near term as the tech industry diasporizes.)

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#62

Post by CydeWeys »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #47
CydeWeys wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuti…

No, I am not planning on owning commercial, but I am interested in avoiding having taxes raised on me to fill a budget deficit. Taxes on commercial real estate generate a significant amount of revenue, commercial rental agreements are usually ~5-7 years, and so, at least in SF, there is a looming wave of devaluations which has yet to be realized. The city already has an estimated 800M budget shortfall without assumin…

I think you're being too speculative here. If you're really trying to minimize paying taxes, then you should be moving to a state with no income tax, don't buy property there (because states with no income tax tend to make up for it with high property taxes), and don't live in a city because cities will have local taxes. But you move to NYC, you do so because NYC is awesome and living here is great. I wouldn't pay less taxes to live in the middle of nowhere.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#63

Post by Xeoncross »

no_wizard wrote: post #52
eatbitseveryday wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in big cities within "red" states is not like living in the state itself outside the city, other than you are all affected by the same state laws (unless the latter is the main concern). Atlanta GA, Austin TX, etc. are all "blue in a sea of red" as they say. Lived in the former myself for many years. Yes you're affected by state laws, but most of the folks in large cities are going to be less like the stereoty…

I share one thought about this, which is I don't want my tax dollars supporting red state policies, in essence, and I wonder if OP feels the same way

There are several red states with no state income tax. Texas and Florida for example, so I assume you're talking about property taxes and taxes on items like gas or food?

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#64

Post by tempsy »

TuringNYC wrote: post #44
SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

I can only offer anecdotes, but: 1. NYC is booming IMHO 2. Pre-pandemic, there was barely room to walk on the sidewalks in many parts of NYC, now it is better (presumably as people come in 2x a week, not 5x). Some subways have seats now, but many are still standing-room-only. 3. For the last 8yrs pre-pandemic, I used to go to SF/SV 4x to 5x a year for work/conferences...My last Cali trip (cancelled) was literally Apr…

A "booming" NYC is not necessarily a purely positive thing.

SF and NYC used to be fairly comparable as far as cost of living goes but now renting in SF is comparable to a dozen other metros (eg. $3k for a 1 bed, under $4k for a 2 bed) but in NYC it's a now an absurdly expensive outlier eg. $5k+ for a 1 bed in a convenient area in Manhattan or Brooklyn.

Beyond that eating out/going out/uber+taxis all seemed much more expensive in NYC than SF when I visited last month.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#65

Post by vikingerik »

TechBro8615 wrote: post #25
SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

I've learned that I prefer mini-metro areas with population on the order of 250k people... you get most of the upsides of a city without many of the downsides, while also retaining advantages of smaller areas like more green spaces and lower cost of living.

Yup, that's the sweet spot. Richmond VA is a great example of such a mid sized city - housing is affordable, traffic is manageable, and it's big enough to have things to do and find like-minded hobbyists.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#66

Post by baremetal »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #47
CydeWeys wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuti…

No, I am not planning on owning commercial, but I am interested in avoiding having taxes raised on me to fill a budget deficit. Taxes on commercial real estate generate a significant amount of revenue, commercial rental agreements are usually ~5-7 years, and so, at least in SF, there is a looming wave of devaluations which has yet to be realized. The city already has an estimated 800M budget shortfall without assumin…

I thought they had a surplus just a few years ago.

Odd.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#67

Post by lwelyk »

bblpeter wrote: post #57
no_wizard wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I share one thought about this, which is I don't want my tax dollars supporting red state policies, in essence, and I wonder if OP feels the same way

[flagged]

please don't post obvious bait on HN.

The recent wave of legislation being passed is obviously nothing related to crime.

https://apnews.com/article/desantis-florida-dont-say-gay-ban...

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#68

Post by halfmatthalfcat »

bblpeter wrote: post #57
no_wizard wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I share one thought about this, which is I don't want my tax dollars supporting red state policies, in essence, and I wonder if OP feels the same way

[flagged]

You mean states like Texas where schools and malls definitely aren’t being shot up?

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#69

Post by exochrono »

sschueller wrote: post #38

Isn't there a housing shortage? Rezone these buildings for apartments on the upper floors. Edit: Even if it costs a lot to convert (that is where tax incentives would usually help if done correctly). Having them sit empty costs more eventually.

I would love to see these offices turned into housing as much as anyone, but I also recommend reading this amazing NYT article on why it's not quite so simple as just rezoning or a simple interior remodel - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/11/upshot/office...

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#70

Post by lwelyk »

eatbitseveryday wrote: post #30
SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

Living in big cities within "red" states is not like living in the state itself outside the city, other than you are all affected by the same state laws (unless the latter is the main concern). Atlanta GA, Austin TX, etc. are all "blue in a sea of red" as they say. Lived in the former myself for many years. Yes you're affected by state laws, but most of the folks in large cities are going to be less like the stereoty…

The problem is the recent slate of "don't say gay" bills and abortion bans are state-wide affairs
Post reply on HN