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Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

sfchronicle.com

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Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#51

Post by asah »

CydeWeys wrote: post #31
SeanAnderson wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines…

Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuti…

Can confirm: packed streets, packed theaters, restaurants, etc - even the subway is recovering. NYC is going great aside from older, overpriced midtown buildings that are failing to lease.

For (way) more details, I recommend Jonathan Miller's blog: https://millersamuel.com/blog/

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#52

Post by no_wizard »

eatbitseveryday wrote: post #30
SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

Living in big cities within "red" states is not like living in the state itself outside the city, other than you are all affected by the same state laws (unless the latter is the main concern). Atlanta GA, Austin TX, etc. are all "blue in a sea of red" as they say. Lived in the former myself for many years. Yes you're affected by state laws, but most of the folks in large cities are going to be less like the stereoty…

I share one thought about this, which is I don't want my tax dollars supporting red state policies, in essence, and I wonder if OP feels the same way

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#53

Post by CydeWeys »

electriclove wrote: post #46
CydeWeys wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuti…

How do you get around? Are the subways safe for tourists, families, etc?

I bike and walk most places, but I'm perfectly fine taking the subway for longer distances. Even that question itself sounds like it's out of the past from three decades ago.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#54

Post by lisasays »

warning26 wrote: post #22
CydeWeys wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.

Exactly; the tech companies in SF didn't have the backbone to require RTO like the finance firms in NYC did. The cities' respective recoveries show that the finance firms made the right call.

A better way of putting it would be:

NYC finance workers didn't have the backbone to resist RTO like SF tech workers did.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#55

Post by bblpeter »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

[flagged]

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#56

Post by jeffbee »

CydeWeys wrote: post #36
jeffbee wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This problem is not at all unique to SF. According to Cushman & Wakefield, Austin has 23% vacant offices, Manhattan has 23%, Brooklyn 24%, and SF has 25%, same as Minneapolis and Chicago, while Houston has 26% vacant. https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/u...

Unless you are the owner/lessor of commercial real estate, why does this matter? NYC is happening these days, even if not everyone is going back to the office every day. They're still here in their homes (which are renting out for record high rates) and going about their daily lives in the city, which is absolutely packed.

But downtown SF has always been like a scene out of "Night of the Comet" compared to NY.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#57

Post by bblpeter »

no_wizard wrote: post #52
eatbitseveryday wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in big cities within "red" states is not like living in the state itself outside the city, other than you are all affected by the same state laws (unless the latter is the main concern). Atlanta GA, Austin TX, etc. are all "blue in a sea of red" as they say. Lived in the former myself for many years. Yes you're affected by state laws, but most of the folks in large cities are going to be less like the stereoty…

I share one thought about this, which is I don't want my tax dollars supporting red state policies, in essence, and I wonder if OP feels the same way

[flagged]

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#58

Post by jjoonathan »

yieldcrv wrote: post #27
jjoonathan wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if you assume California is socialist it all makes sense. There's just one tiny little problem: it isn't, and not only is this office space privately owned but the problems causing these vacancies are probably principal agent problems directly attributable to the structure of the free market controlling them (landlords either want to bet on a recovery or agreed to credit terms that would cascade a single write-…

thats an insult to socialists, China’s top income tax rate is far below California’s combined max income tax rate.

Does China have a separate low-tax lane for capital gains like the US does?

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#59

Post by wusher »

sschueller wrote: post #38

Isn't there a housing shortage? Rezone these buildings for apartments on the upper floors. Edit: Even if it costs a lot to convert (that is where tax incentives would usually help if done correctly). Having them sit empty costs more eventually.

It's not as easy as rezoning. there is significant overhead retrofitting commercial real-estate with the plumbing needed for residential. ( as well as many other changes) It's doable but the right incentives would have to be put in place by the city. However, everything i've seen of the city is their policies are very anti landlords.

--edit-- fixed grammer

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#60

Post by bblpeter »

imbnwa wrote: post #13
SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

Chicago?

[flagged]
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