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Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

sfchronicle.com

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Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#31

Post by CydeWeys »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #18
CydeWeys wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines…

Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter?

NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuting into the office 5 days a week anymore? Don't buy an office building and you'll be good.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#32

Post by ortusdux »

Tangential, but how is retail ft² doing? There was a report in 2018 that the US had 23.5ft² of retail space per person, followed by Canada at 16.8ft² and Australia at 11.2ft². Every other country polled had 4.5ft² or less. When covid hit, people used this report to claim that the US would see a retail collapse. Did any of this come to pass? All my searches just come up with alarmist articles from 2019-2020.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#33

Post by woodruffw »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #18
CydeWeys wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines…

Those numbers are almost a year old; NYC is expecting a significant rise in tourists[1] and for business travel numbers to return to pre-pandemic levels[2].

To my annoyance, rent has continued to rise as well.

[1]: https://www.thrillist.com/news/new-york/nyc-expects-61-milli...

[2]: https://www.cityguideny.com/article/summer-tourism-data-nyc-...

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#34

Post by wootland »

cameldrv wrote: post #20
wootland wrote: post #12

> “I strongly believe the office experience should be at the same level as luxury residential and hospitality,” Shvo previously told The Chronicle. “In the last two years, we’ve made our homes into our offices, now it’s time to make our offices feel like our homes.” Private bathrooms for every employee? No commute? The office can never "feel like my home", my home doesn't have my co-workers in it. It's an environment…

Maybe not, but if office rents are really going to be way down, it's possible to give developers private offices again.

I can only speak for myself but I would never work non-remote again, even if I had my own private office.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#35

Post by Ancalagon »

ortusdux wrote: post #32

Tangential, but how is retail ft² doing? There was a report in 2018 that the US had 23.5ft² of retail space per person, followed by Canada at 16.8ft² and Australia at 11.2ft². Every other country polled had 4.5ft² or less. When covid hit, people used this report to claim that the US would see a retail collapse. Did any of this come to pass? All my searches just come up with alarmist articles from 2019-2020.

tbd. no collapse yet because commercial leases typically last multiple years. Many leases are coming up for renewal in the next year, however. Might very well see a recession in commercial real-estate soon.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#36

Post by CydeWeys »

jeffbee wrote: post #23
CydeWeys wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.

This problem is not at all unique to SF. According to Cushman & Wakefield, Austin has 23% vacant offices, Manhattan has 23%, Brooklyn 24%, and SF has 25%, same as Minneapolis and Chicago, while Houston has 26% vacant. https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/u...

Unless you are the owner/lessor of commercial real estate, why does this matter? NYC is happening these days, even if not everyone is going back to the office every day. They're still here in their homes (which are renting out for record high rates) and going about their daily lives in the city, which is absolutely packed.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#37

Post by brianwawok »

TechBro8615 wrote: post #25
SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

I've learned that I prefer mini-metro areas with population on the order of 250k people... you get most of the upsides of a city without many of the downsides, while also retaining advantages of smaller areas like more green spaces and lower cost of living.

That is where I moved to Chicago from ;)

I can do most things I want to do. My max drive is like 15 minutes.

And if I need Chicago for like their airport.. meh, 2 hour drive. About the same as my old 7 mile subway ride while I lived in the city.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#38

Post by sschueller »

Isn't there a housing shortage? Rezone these buildings for apartments on the upper floors.

Edit: Even if it costs a lot to convert (that is where tax incentives would usually help if done correctly). Having them sit empty costs more eventually.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#39

Post by jntvjnvutnuvt »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

Miami is booming but I do fear the Californian migrants there will just turn it into another San Francisco in due time.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#40

Post by justeleblanc »

yieldcrv wrote: post #27
jjoonathan wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if you assume California is socialist it all makes sense. There's just one tiny little problem: it isn't, and not only is this office space privately owned but the problems causing these vacancies are probably principal agent problems directly attributable to the structure of the free market controlling them (landlords either want to bet on a recovery or agreed to credit terms that would cascade a single write-…

thats an insult to socialists, China’s top income tax rate is far below California’s combined max income tax rate.

Uh? Where did you get that comparison? China's top income tax rate is 45%. I cannot see how that could ever be "far below" what someone's income tax rate would be in California (37% federal + 12.3% state). Mind that the top bracket starts around $140k in China, whereas in the US it's about $590k (federal or Californian).
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