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Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

sfchronicle.com

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Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#41

Post by halfmatthalfcat »

imbnwa wrote: post #13
SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

Chicago?

I think Chicago and IL are slept on in general but have a lot of long term positives. IL (thanks to Pritzker and a post-Magidan House) is starting to shore up fiscally, Lake Michigan (for both recreation and water supply) and a decent public transit system make it very appealing.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#42

Post by theturtletalks »

Ancalagon wrote: post #35
ortusdux wrote: post #32

Tangential, but how is retail ft² doing? There was a report in 2018 that the US had 23.5ft² of retail space per person, followed by Canada at 16.8ft² and Australia at 11.2ft². Every other country polled had 4.5ft² or less. When covid hit, people used this report to claim that the US would see a retail collapse. Did any of this come to pass? All my searches just come up with alarmist articles from 2019-2020.

tbd. no collapse yet because commercial leases typically last multiple years. Many leases are coming up for renewal in the next year, however. Might very well see a recession in commercial real-estate soon.

As I understand, it’s better for them to keep the retail spaces empty than drop rent. This was true when money was free, but it’ll be interesting to see how they adapt to renewals with the new rates.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#43

Post by Ancalagon »

warning26 wrote: post #22
CydeWeys wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.

Exactly; the tech companies in SF didn't have the backbone to require RTO like the finance firms in NYC did. The cities' respective recoveries show that the finance firms made the right call.

Is "backbone" the new moniker for "iron fist"?

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#44

Post by TuringNYC »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #8

I live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recover…

I can only offer anecdotes, but:

1. NYC is booming IMHO

2. Pre-pandemic, there was barely room to walk on the sidewalks in many parts of NYC, now it is better (presumably as people come in 2x a week, not 5x). Some subways have seats now, but many are still standing-room-only.

3. For the last 8yrs pre-pandemic, I used to go to SF/SV 4x to 5x a year for work/conferences...My last Cali trip (cancelled) was literally April 2020 for NVIDIA GTC...I havent been in Cali since 2020. Most has been replaced with Zoom, some has gone to other cities.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#45

Post by wahnfrieden »

cameldrv wrote: post #20
wootland wrote: post #12

> “I strongly believe the office experience should be at the same level as luxury residential and hospitality,” Shvo previously told The Chronicle. “In the last two years, we’ve made our homes into our offices, now it’s time to make our offices feel like our homes.” Private bathrooms for every employee? No commute? The office can never "feel like my home", my home doesn't have my co-workers in it. It's an environment…

Maybe not, but if office rents are really going to be way down, it's possible to give developers private offices again.

Owners who hate the lack of oversight with WFH are not the ones who like private offices with doors for workers. They don't mandate RTO out of concern for your privacy and ability to focus.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#46

Post by electriclove »

CydeWeys wrote: post #31
SeanAnderson wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines…

Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuti…

How do you get around? Are the subways safe for tourists, families, etc?

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#47

Post by SeanAnderson »

CydeWeys wrote: post #31
SeanAnderson wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines…

Are you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuti…

No, I am not planning on owning commercial, but I am interested in avoiding having taxes raised on me to fill a budget deficit. Taxes on commercial real estate generate a significant amount of revenue, commercial rental agreements are usually ~5-7 years, and so, at least in SF, there is a looming wave of devaluations which has yet to be realized. The city already has an estimated 800M budget shortfall without assuming commercial real estate devalues by 50%. When that happens the only quick fix is to bleed money from the populace. If commercial buildings aren't being used in NY then this will also occur there.

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#48

Post by bubblethink »

warning26 wrote: post #22
CydeWeys wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.

Exactly; the tech companies in SF didn't have the backbone to require RTO like the finance firms in NYC did. The cities' respective recoveries show that the finance firms made the right call.

Right call for whom ? What's it got to do with backbone if it is just not in anyone (except landlords') interest to mandate RTO ?

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#49

Post by wahnfrieden »

wootland wrote: post #34
cameldrv wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe not, but if office rents are really going to be way down, it's possible to give developers private offices again.

I can only speak for myself but I would never work non-remote again, even if I had my own private office.

Covid WFH took me further - I would never work again if I can help it

Re: Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy

#50

Post by surgical_fire »

warning26 wrote: post #22
CydeWeys wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.

Exactly; the tech companies in SF didn't have the backbone to require RTO like the finance firms in NYC did. The cities' respective recoveries show that the finance firms made the right call.

lol people would just move jobs to keep working remote.

That's the beauty of working in tech. There's a lot of companies to move over to. Finance is a lot more restricted.

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