Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

Post by dotancohen » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 10:51 AM UTC

kirse wrote: post #162

safety1st wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

No other country can compare. No one else has this. These in-built advantages are incredibly hard to beat. It's why it's on our currency - "e pluribus unum". It's also why Russia and China are constantly working to erode the unity of the American people, whether it's through false narratives that "we're more divided than ever", driving a wedge into political parties, fomenting rage-mode across social media, utilizing…

  > It's why it's on our currency - "e pluribus unum".

Post by bandrami » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 10:53 AM UTC

quags wrote: post #103

fyzix wrote: post #23

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…

If we go by another Peter, Peter Lynch in this case he would say no one can predict inflation or interest rates long term. Secondly his words is there is always something to worry about when investing - like when oil went to 40 and there would be a depression or when Japan was going to take over the world leading to Americas downfall - or when Japan was crashing and going to cause a depression. Or when oil went from…

Post by fijiaarone » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 10:56 AM UTC

kirse wrote: post #162

safety1st wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

No other country can compare. No one else has this. These in-built advantages are incredibly hard to beat. It's why it's on our currency - "e pluribus unum". It's also why Russia and China are constantly working to erode the unity of the American people, whether it's through false narratives that "we're more divided than ever", driving a wedge into political parties, fomenting rage-mode across social media, utilizing…

Post by saos » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 11:02 AM UTC

fyzix wrote: post #23

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…

Post by bandrami » Sat, Mar 25, 2023, 11:05 AM UTC

paganel wrote: post #242

safety1st wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For sure China has a ton of people and a huge economy. Fair point that the regulatory framework there may be more homogenous, but it's also weaker. And it lacks all the other inbuilt advantages I mentioned. Remember, the USA can ship goods back and forth between itself and what... 90% of the ex-US global economy? With very little geopolitical interference. This is largely a function of geography, plop a cargo ship in…

I think this is a skewed perspective. In case of a war the Chinese leaders won't care about the fact that they won't be able to sell their plasticky stuff to Europe or the US, they'll only care to have enough food for their population and enough raw materials for their Army (it takes lots of iron and access to cheap energy to make lots of artillery shells). Lack of enough food for their population was what brought th…