Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

chase.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

191–200 of 441 posts

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#191

Post by awinter-py »

1. Because in putting all their money into MBS, SVB essentially invested it with merrill lynch pierce fenner and smith circa september 2007, and per temporal waste management rules, when you send toxic waste back in time to destroy it, you can't call it a 'repeat' when it is still a problem in the present

2. Because chase wasn't writing listicles in 2008

fwiw chase's actual argument is 'bank stocks are in the shitter'. This is not what I would write if Chase hired me to write a listicle about Chase being a safe and good place to store things.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#192

Post by locallost »

fyzix wrote: post #23

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…

"Predicted this in 2008" is a funny sentence. If I now predicted that what the Fed is doing will result in an amazing economy, would it really count if it happened in 15 years?

Peter Schiff is always predicting doom. It's not that he's talking complete nonsense, but objectively he is more wrong than right. His opinions corelate less to being correct and more to the fact that he invests a lot in gold, and his interest is that everyone else gets scared and does too.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#193

Post by mike_d »

quesera wrote: post #179
safety1st wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

You left out: * Issues the global reserve currency * Maintains the largest military * Has the widest media reach * Has significant natural resources There are problems too, but the unfair advantages are quite strong, and self-perpetuating. Which is fortunate for Americans, because very few countries could be so haphazardly managed, without failing.

Whenever the "what actually backs the US dollar" discussion comes up I remind them: 11 aircraft carriers.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#194

Post by Rury »

hayst4ck wrote: post #185
mullingitover wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, it's a good thing. Given how dysfunctional the legislative branch is with fiscal policy I can't imagine a worse idea than putting it in charge of monetary policy as well.

It turns the fed into the only arm of the government able to levy a new tax. Printing 20% more money doesn't seem materially different than taking 20% of everyone's money. Either way an individual is able to buy 20% less stuff and the government is able to spend 20% of the value of the economy. Except the fed has to answer less to the public than legislators do. We have a non-elected tax authority deceiving the count…

It's not wrong, we have a wall street government. Did you notice at how those most responsible for the 2008 financial crisis, never went to jail... instead they were the advisory board for Obama on financial stuff?

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#195

Post by FredPret »

safety1st wrote: post #154
quags wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we go by another Peter, Peter Lynch in this case he would say no one can predict inflation or interest rates long term. Secondly his words is there is always something to worry about when investing - like when oil went to 40 and there would be a depression or when Japan was going to take over the world leading to Americas downfall - or when Japan was crashing and going to cause a depression. Or when oil went from…

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

The other advantage is the total net worth as opposed to GDP. You hear a lot about GDP and the US has the biggest economy by far.

But the total net worth per person in the States is even further ahead of the rest of the world. Only Switzerland is ahead of the US in per-capita net worth (only by a hair though) and one suspects that’s partly due to so many Americans parking their money there.

Having had the biggest GDP for decades led to a amazing amount of wealth being concentrated in the USA.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#196

Post by FredPret »

vlovich123 wrote: post #160
safety1st wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

> A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory framework China almost has the same number of millionaires. Per capita it’s not as good, but in terms of volume. And I’d say they’re closer to a single regulatory framework than the US which has all sorts of conflicting state laws which get in the way of interstate commerce (despite the commerce clause). Sure there are a lot of ad…

That isn’t true - the US has 39% of all millionaires, and China has 10%. [0]

Clearly a lead that can be overcome, but now with China’s turn back to proper communism, they will probably never get there.

[0] Page 27: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/ab...

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#197

Post by mullingitover »

Rury wrote: post #194
hayst4ck wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It turns the fed into the only arm of the government able to levy a new tax. Printing 20% more money doesn't seem materially different than taking 20% of everyone's money. Either way an individual is able to buy 20% less stuff and the government is able to spend 20% of the value of the economy. Except the fed has to answer less to the public than legislators do. We have a non-elected tax authority deceiving the count…

It's not wrong, we have a wall street government. Did you notice at how those most responsible for the 2008 financial crisis, never went to jail... instead they were the advisory board for Obama on financial stuff?

If we want the workers to completely own the means of production, by all means put officials elected by the workers wholly in charge of fiscal and monetary policy. I'm not arguing against it. Just don't half-ass it, let's go all in on central planning.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#198

Post by TexanFeller »

Beached wrote: post #172
creakingstairs wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All that but most of all, the fact USD is the world reserve currency is the biggest privilege. Every other countries have to stock up on USD/ have swaps in place and follow US when they raise fed interest rates instead of doing what’s best for the domestic economy. For example, South Korea’s USD reserves has been sharply going down as they’ve been trying to resist following the recent rate hikes to soften the blow to…

within reason of course. it's a position of privilege, but that position used to below to the UK. they lost that position over/after the world wars, and we got it. it is possible that doing whatever we want could push people to the euro as the reserve or the pound. it seems far fetched, but I could see a world where the euro the the world's reserve currency

The yuan may be the competition we should fear. Since we disconnected Russia from our financial systems, Russia is willing to do business with our biggest rival, China, in their currency.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#199

Post by pixelfarmer »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #150
tzs wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where was the "rampant inflation" from 2008? I don't see it here [1]. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/infl...

Chart assets instead of prices and you’ll see it. This has social and political consequences. Populists haven’t started popping up across the western world for no reason. Half the country feels priced out of basic dignities like housing.

That is because housing is coupled to the stock market. Stock market and real economy are two different things by now, or should be treated as such conceptually.
Post reply on HN