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Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

chase.com

21–30 of 441 posts

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#21
Okay did anyone else get tricked by that websites dark pattern?

We've all been trained to not even look at the "do you accept cookies" thing anymore and just blindly press it. On this website, it's actually an ad link to their paid services that looks just like one of those accept cookies buttons.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#23
History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.

We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008.

There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next decade.

PS: My personal CPI (rent + food) is 23% so I'm already experiencing this. I would advise everyone to calculate their personal CPI because that's what affects your standard of living...The government numbers are rigged and everyone's reality differs...

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#26
post #2

Serious question: Is it a good idea (ever) to trust a bank's take on a financial crisis?

In the same way that you should take a software engineer's take on why a a SQL query is slow. They're probably the most knowledgeable person in the room but that doesn't always mean that they're right.

Most software engineers are absolutely garbage at SQL though. Their expertise often ends at CRUD queries, if they can even achieve that without their precious ORMs.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#27

I’m a quarter way convinced mid-sized banks’ stock shouldn’t be publicly traded.

Or money creation should be more exclusive to public institutions.

Loans create more money; in other words, according to your proposal, private banks shouldn't lend out more money than what they have (as customers' deposits).

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#28
post #2

Serious question: Is it a good idea (ever) to trust a bank's take on a financial crisis?

In the same way that you should take a software engineer's take on why a a SQL query is slow. They're probably the most knowledgeable person in the room but that doesn't always mean that they're right.

"A software engineer's take on why an SQL query is slow." isn't the correct analogy, IMO. First, this isn't a banker, it's a bank. A banking crisis isn't the equivalent of a script either.

Should you trust meta about monopolism in the social media space, data ownership, child safety, the effects of new media on professional journalism, etc. etc. Big political questions intertwined with his companies' interests.

In any case, both in the hypothetical fb case and the real chase case: (1) you should listen, because they're in a position to have knowledge and insight. (2) You should also be extremely skeptical, and assume that they are making statements in pursuit of their interests.

That said, the content of this particular article is quite worth listening to. It's not really about the what. It's about the why.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#29
adding liquidity via “policy maker’s tools” doesn't fix the problem or provide assurance that Credit Suisse isn’t the beginning of something else

CS AT1 bondholders now have gigantic $17bn hole in their balance sheet/portfolio

The whole AT1 bond market is experiencing losses of similar size to the treasury bond market

If anybody collateralized those? Bigger losses

Losses aren't controversial, but they are when theyre losses with other people’s money who arent investors

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or money creation should be more exclusive to public institutions.

Loans create more money; in other words, according to your proposal, private banks shouldn't lend out more money than what they have (as customers' deposits).

I think that's what the commenter was getting at, but I think the fixation on banks as a way of "printing money" as a big problem is wildly overblown. "Money" is more of a fiction than that, and that's ok. Creating a successful company creates money. Crypto created money (while often pitched as ultimately being about the opposite).
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