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Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

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Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#161

Post by Aunche »

fyzix wrote: post #117
paulpauper wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. He predicted dollar collapse, hyperinflation for 11 years, and a bunch of other stuff the didn't come true. Major broken clock syndrome on his part. Inflation finally spiked, but after being wrong since 2008. Gold still has not done much in a decade. The inflation was from the post-covid recovery, which was so strong that supply chain co…

It's better to be wrong until you're right than right until you're wrong...because you will get the last laugh. The fundamental problem is that price controls never work and the interest rate is the price of money. If you understand this, then it's easy to predict the endgame, whether it takes 10 or 20 yrs to fail, you will still be right once you position yourself for the windfall.

>It's better to be wrong until you're right than right until you're wrong...because you will get the last laugh.

Peter Schiff gets to laugh despite being wrong for 9 out of the last 10 years because he's not the one deciding monetary policy. For all we know, if he had his way, the US would be in a perma-recession and made into a vassal state of China by now.

Also, the business cycle is something acknowledged by literally every economist. The fact that we have mild economic turmoil after a global pandemic shouldn't be a prediction that Peter Schiff is proud of.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#162

Post by kirse »

safety1st wrote: post #154
quags wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we go by another Peter, Peter Lynch in this case he would say no one can predict inflation or interest rates long term. Secondly his words is there is always something to worry about when investing - like when oil went to 40 and there would be a depression or when Japan was going to take over the world leading to Americas downfall - or when Japan was crashing and going to cause a depression. Or when oil went from…

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

No other country can compare. No one else has this. These in-built advantages are incredibly hard to beat.

It's why it's on our currency - "e pluribus unum".

It's also why Russia and China are constantly working to erode the unity of the American people, whether it's through false narratives that "we're more divided than ever", driving a wedge into political parties, fomenting rage-mode across social media, utilizing Twitter for propaganda or TikTok to keep American minds drained of their creative motivation while they ban the apps in their own countries... the list really goes on.

A cord of many stands is not easily broken, but others will do their damnedest to try.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#163

Post by creakingstairs »

safety1st wrote: post #154
quags wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we go by another Peter, Peter Lynch in this case he would say no one can predict inflation or interest rates long term. Secondly his words is there is always something to worry about when investing - like when oil went to 40 and there would be a depression or when Japan was going to take over the world leading to Americas downfall - or when Japan was crashing and going to cause a depression. Or when oil went from…

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

All that but most of all, the fact USD is the world reserve currency is the biggest privilege. Every other countries have to stock up on USD/ have swaps in place and follow US when they raise fed interest rates instead of doing what’s best for the domestic economy.

For example, South Korea’s USD reserves has been sharply going down as they’ve been trying to resist following the recent rate hikes to soften the blow to the economy. This is happening all across the globe.

However, US can do (and seems to be doing) whatever they want.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#164

Post by oblio »

heavyset_go wrote: post #134
oblio wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate all these conspiracy theories. And you know why? It's because they imply hubris, arrogance, control. Let's just realize that we all have a lot less control over our environment than we think we do, and some things are just forces beyond anyone's control.

The business cycle isn't a conspiracy theory.

> The business cycle isn't a conspiracy theory.

The business cycle is a well-documented fact of the economy, caused by basic microeconomics. The busts have as good a reason to be there as do the booms.

Plus the business cycle has booms which are on average much longer than the busts, an angle which conspiracy theorists frequently choose to ignore.

The business cycle is not a conspiracy theory, thinking the business cycle is somehow "made" or "artificial" or "controlled" is a conspiracy theory.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#165

Post by oblio »

slj wrote: post #90
oblio wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate all these conspiracy theories. And you know why? It's because they imply hubris, arrogance, control. Let's just realize that we all have a lot less control over our environment than we think we do, and some things are just forces beyond anyone's control.

What is a conspiracy here: The idea of an invisible hand which is beyond anyone’s control, or the analysis of historical information which shows a pattern? I choose to believe the data, not the fairytale you are proposing.

> What is a conspiracy here: The idea of an invisible hand which is beyond anyone’s control, or the analysis of historical information which shows a pattern? I choose to believe the data, not the fairytale you are proposing.

What's the pattern?

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#166

Post by oblio »

Avshalom wrote: post #82
oblio wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate all these conspiracy theories. And you know why? It's because they imply hubris, arrogance, control. Let's just realize that we all have a lot less control over our environment than we think we do, and some things are just forces beyond anyone's control.

I mean hubris and arrogance are in full and open display pretty constantly. The inability to actually control shit is why its always a moving target. but the idea that rich people are acting in a manner to maintain/increase their wealth aint exactly a conspiracy theory.

> but the idea that > are acting in a manner to maintain/increase their wealth aint exactly a conspiracy theory.

This is the correct statement and it's not a conspiracy theory, it's a banality.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#167

Post by Rury »

pdonis wrote: post #95
alxmng wrote: post #87

Who cares about keeping deposits safe when money isn’t worth anything? Americans don’t even have money in the bank. Median savings is $4500. Many people who perform socially useful jobs can barely afford the basic basket of goods like rent, food, and transportation.

> Americans don’t even have money in the bank. Median savings is $4500. But M1 is about three times M0; the difference, about $12T, comes to about $400K per American, so some Americans do have significant money in the bank.

Does M1 include accounts held by companies/businesses?

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#168

Post by efficax »

Avshalom wrote: post #70

It aint fucking lost on me that financial papers spent the better part of 2022 arguing that we were headed for a recession. The q4 numbers came in showing the US economy was still expanding and now those same papers are telling me we're in a banking crisis on the basis of like two and a half banks, with SVB and CS both being fully rescued. The fucking owners of capital seem bound and determined to destroy their own s…

it’s called a capital strike. the goal is to bring down the cost of labor.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#169

Post by bburnett44 »

vlovich123 wrote: post #160
safety1st wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the years as my perspective has become more global I've come to realize what a privileged position the US is in, economically: * Ports on both the Atlantic and Pacific * A very effective transportation system in between * In the big growth sector where points 1 and 2 don't matter, tech, it's still #1 in the world anyway * A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory frame…

> A market of 350 million high income people (by global standards) under one regulatory framework China almost has the same number of millionaires. Per capita it’s not as good, but in terms of volume. And I’d say they’re closer to a single regulatory framework than the US which has all sorts of conflicting state laws which get in the way of interstate commerce (despite the commerce clause). Sure there are a lot of ad…

Yeah but there’s all sorts of weird business dynamics w china. For the most part, government exists to enforce business/personal rights in the us versus the reversed in china. Like I’d say the single regulatory framework is actually a bad thing there

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#170

Post by Beached »

arcticbull wrote: post #91
alxmng wrote: post #87

Who cares about keeping deposits safe when money isn’t worth anything? Americans don’t even have money in the bank. Median savings is $4500. Many people who perform socially useful jobs can barely afford the basic basket of goods like rent, food, and transportation.

My money still seems to work great. Those are some serious fiscal and social (but not monetary) issues that should be taken up with Congress not the Fed, and not the FDIC. Who handled this all very well I might add. > Median savings is $4500. The average American family has a $748,000 net worth, according to Federal Reserve data, median $121,000. Savings isn't just what's in your 'savings' account. Mine definitely is…

average!= trimmed average and the real number to use is median. the upper and lower percentiles skew the data sooooooooo much. in statistics, one of the first things you learn is to not make decisions based average, but used trimmed averages and median.

121k net worth is NOT a good number to be sitting at when you are 45, let alone at 65. that is. savings rate faaaaaaar below what you need to provide for yourself in old age one you can no longer earn income. we do not want to generate a class of people reliant on aid for basic subsistence. also note that net worth is not liquid for most people. people can't live without shelter, or without transportation to their jobs, and so they cannot liquidate their car to tap into their net worth for food costs. 121k median means peoples net worth doesn't even come close to covering their shelter requirements.

for most people money isn't even working to get them by day to day, let alone working two functions of today, and saving for tomorrow.

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