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Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

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Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#61

Post by JumpCrisscross »

majormajor wrote: post #59
vkou wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, that's a more interesting take on this. Let me try to unravel it. Firstly, I don't think the 'shadow economy' of horse-trading on projected value/cashflows (Which is what investment is, if we reduce it to absurdity) is particularly relevant to the actual act of creating value. It can certainly accelerate/deccelerate it (Speculative investment, versus tightening investment), but it can also operate entirely disj…

I think the biggest difference in how we're approaching this is around the "value creation" aspect. I was being intentionally short-term-focused, but I don't think I made that clear. I agree completely about the valuation of circulation, I think I was just getting at it differently when talking about creating a sucessful company "creating money." Thinking about consumer behavior of the founder, investors, and any oth…

> gonna spend their "actual dollars" much more freely because they have that new asset of ownership of the company in their back pocket

This is the wealth effect [1].

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wealtheffect.asp

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#63

Post by zoltar »

fyzix wrote: post #23

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…

Is that the same Peter Schiff that said gold was going to $5,000/oz in 2012?

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#64

Post by CatWChainsaw »

ipv6ipv4 wrote: post #13
kiernanmcgowan wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the same way that you should take a software engineer's take on why a a SQL query is slow. They're probably the most knowledgeable person in the room but that doesn't always mean that they're right.

A software engineer usually doesn't have a financial incentive to lie to you.

And yet upon reading your comment I immediately thought, "They 'trust me'. Dumb fucks."

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#65

Post by drstewart »

fyzix wrote: post #23

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…

>There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next decade.

I love how confident people are with their predictions.

Since you're so confident about what's going to happen, why does CPI matter to you? You can invest in the market in such a way you're going to be rich anyway.

Anyway, I'll happily help make you richer: do you want to make a long term bet that there won't be double digit inflation for the next decade (let's say there won't be annualized inflation >= 10% over the period from March 25th, 2023 to March 24th, 2033)?

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#66

Post by OJFord »

brigandish wrote: post #40
fyzix wrote: post #23

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…

Consumer Price Index...?

Yes, i.e. 'inflation', but there are different ways of measuring that. In the UK at least the main ways are CPI & RPI - Consumer & Retail.

Broadly speaking RPI is CPI + mortgages & rent prices, but actually there's a newer one that's exactly that which tracks lower. They're different 'baskets of goods', used in differnt cases, but generally CPI is what's meant. (RPI is used for student loan repayments for example.)

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#68

Post by bcrosby95 »

klodolph wrote: post #44
dalbasal wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"A software engineer's take on why an SQL query is slow." isn't the correct analogy, IMO. First, this isn't a banker, it's a bank. A banking crisis isn't the equivalent of a script either. Should you trust meta about monopolism in the social media space, data ownership, child safety, the effects of new media on professional journalism, etc. etc. Big political questions intertwined with his companies' interests. In an…

I wonder how many HN conversations would be cut short if we simply accepted that analogies are imperfect yet useful. They provide a very limited amount of insight into any topic—so yes, let’s use them, and let’s stop arguing about whether an analogy is the “right analogy”. A analogy will have some element of truth that transfers from one situation to another, and in a good analogy, it will be easy for readers to disc…

Analogies are like children. If its your own they're a brilliant, cute, funny, unique individual. If they're other people's they're loud, annoying, stinky little pests and oh god they're swarming you.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#69

Post by sph »

zoltar wrote: post #63
fyzix wrote: post #23

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. We cannot have a decade of 0% interest rates and expect no consequences. Peter Schiff predicted this from the moment the fed bailouted the banks in 2008. There's nothing the fed can do to escape this one, it's either massive inflation or massive recession. The fed has avoided the latter by bailing out the banks again so expect double digit inflation for the next…

Is that the same Peter Schiff that said gold was going to $5,000/oz in 2012?

Person that made a bad prediction in their life should never be listened to ever again, for everything they say is wrong.

Show me anyone that predicted two consecutive macroeconomic trends, ever.

Re: Reasons the banking crisis isn’t a repeat of 2008

#70

Post by Avshalom »

It aint fucking lost on me that financial papers spent the better part of 2022 arguing that we were headed for a recession. The q4 numbers came in showing the US economy was still expanding and now those same papers are telling me we're in a banking crisis on the basis of like two and a half banks, with SVB and CS both being fully rescued.

The fucking owners of capital seem bound and determined to destroy their own system.

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