Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles? • Hacker News Board

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#331

Post by olivermarks » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 7:28 PM UTC

wilg wrote: post #317

olivermarks wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a claim, a fact. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyre... https://earth.org/tyre-pollution/ Because BEVs are much heavier than ICE vehicles and have very different torque characteristics they produce significantly more pollution. Much of the dirt poluttion attributed to diesel is actually tire particulates.

Your claim is that tire pollution is a more serious problem than exhaust. These articles do not support this claim. They state that more particles come off tires than exhaust. That's not the same thing. Does tire pollution contribute to global warming as much as fossil fuel exhaust? I haven't seen anything to indicate that. I'd like to see a number on the difference in particulate production from tires on EVs – I sus…

Read up on it. There is so much mumbo jumbo about 'global warming' that makes little sense. Tire pollution is a very serious tangible problem.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#332

Post by Karrot_Kream » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 7:28 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #190

hannasanarion wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about the fact that America's most walkable and transit-accessible neighborhoods are also the most expensive and highest demand? People want this kind of development, they flock to it, and they are willing to pay astronomically high prices to get it. The government keeps the supply low with exclusionary zoning that makes all types of construction except car-centric single family housing illegal.

That may be true in some places, but I'm skeptical of any causal relationship. To use Portland as a example familiar to me, the urban area is the least wealthy. The most expensive, exclusive neighborhoods are around the edges and have awful transit service. Looking at bigger cities, what's a better example? You certainly don't move to Manhattan just because it's walkable.

Depends on what you mean by "wealthy". Cost per sq. ft. of housing in the urban area of Portland is much higher than the suburbs of Portland. That's indicative to me of higher market demand in the urban area.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#333

Post by dumbfounder » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 7:30 PM UTC

samastur wrote: post #217

matsemann wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people shouldn't need to own a car. I don't mean that in a "self driving will save us" way. But that a personal car is parked 95% of the day. In a city huge areas are used for storing these blocks of metal not in use. More accessible car sharing could make less people feel the need to own a car.

I use my kitchen not more than 1.5 hours a day on average. Not to mention toilet and bathroom which I use even less. I guess we should all live in two room "apartments" and rest be communal ;) I actually agree with you about better support for car sharing, but low usage by itself is not a particularly strong argument.

Well, pooping in the kitchen sink is not sanitary, so if you can solve that problem we are golden. Yes, it's a good point, there is a heck of a lot of stuff that is not efficiently utilized. I only wear 3% of my clothes on any given day. I have never used my drill (because I lost the charger but that's beside the point). Don't get me started on books or my kids' toys. But then again, the government isn't trying to mandate we all wear clothing made of a scarce material which would increase the price and possibly cause some people walk around naked in cold climates.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#334

Post by vel0city » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 7:33 PM UTC

778hbff wrote: post #327

vel0city wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You seem to be completely ignoring the rest of the iceberg that this glorified screen rests on. Yeah the stuff it rests on such as the frame, the suspension, the wheels... That's the vast majority of the cost of a car. What sensors are you thinking about that add supposedly many many thousands of dollars to the cost of a car? Backup sensors aftermarket, at retail, can be had for $20. Mobileye sells aftermarket ADAS…

> You'd have a hard time meeting emissions requirements Not sure what emissions you are thinking about from an electric car that needs regulation circuits. You know, the thing I'm talking about. (And that I'm still claiming could end up vastly simpler than ICE cars if we only tried). But in any case, in absence of a good faith basis to a discussion, it doesn't seem worthwhile for either of us to continue it.

> But in any case, in absence of a good faith basis to a discussion

I do agree to the absence of good faith in this discussion. My comments have real experiences and cost estimations directly pointing to statements made by the other side. The other side of the conversation makes accusations of being disconnected from reality without actually giving examples, never actually addresses any questions, never actually gives any counter examples, etc. Perhaps we can both learn to be better communicators?

I did go a bit off topic talking about EGR systems, I kind of lost focus on EVs for a second there and talked cars in general. But either way, an EV is going to have computers to actually drive the electric motor effectively, a BMS, etc. Otherwise you're going to have some bad range, you're driving experience is probably going to be pretty poor, and you're not going to be able to really interface with any public chargers.

If you'd answer even one question, can you actually estimate how much an average car would save if they went without the "make a car a phone" stack? What kind of equipment do you propose they actually remove, and what do you think that equipment costs? I'd truly like to understand where you're coming from with that, because from what I see its And maybe I'm disconnected from reality, but the average new car sold today is now $40k, despite the Mirage still being sold for ~$16k. If there was really a massive market for cheap cars and I'm just too disconnected to notice, wouldn't Mitsubishi be moving a lot more Mirages?

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#335

Post by yurishimo » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 7:39 PM UTC

hellweaver666 wrote: post #234

wpm wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- two cargo bikes, each ridden by each adult - layers, and canopies for aforementioned e-bikes - train Of course, speaking in the ideal. Just because the car has been the only option for so long doesn't mean it's replacement has to replace every trip either.

I'm a family of five, three kids and my wife and I and we commute around using this method all the time. I do on average 20-30km per day on week days and a little less on the weekend. My 12 year old son bikes along side me on his own bike. If it rains, we put on waterproof clothes. As the Dutch say "we're not made of sugar!". When we need to visit another city (or other parts of Europe) we jump on the train!

Hi! Do you live in The Netherlands or somewhere else? If the former, I have a question, though I guess anywhere in Europe is probably close enough.

I just moved here from the US. I live in the Noord Brabant in NL and currently own a car. The village I live in does not have a train station, not to mention that it is pretty pricey to take the train to work, both in time and money. My commute costs about €15 per day on public transport and up to 2 hours each way. I also have family that live in Belgium, about 150km away, also in a small village with no train station. Driving makes a lot of sense for me currently.

Sorry, to the actual question. When you travel abroad, what is your cutoff for taking the train versus flying? From where I live to Brussels, it's about half the price to take the train versus flying, but go out a bit further to Paris, and it's about 25% cheaper to fly. If I'm in NL, it seems like it would almost always be more economical to fly if the destination is more than 300km away. These are also cursory Google searches so the timeline is 3-4 weeks out. When planning a trip months in advance, I would assume the flights and train tickets will be cheaper, but likely still comparable in terms of percentages.

My car is also very efficient. A full tank to drive 600km costs about €60. I realize I would need to pay for parking at the destination, but if I'm staying at a hotel or outside the city center, I think it would still be cheaper. Another cursory train search, Eindhoven to Prague is €140 per person round trip. Traveling alone, probably worth it, but with a family, driving seems more economical.

I feel a bit ramble-y but hopefully that makes sense. I'm trying to figure out how this whole "European" thing works :)

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#336

Post by dumbfounder » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 7:40 PM UTC

matsemann wrote: post #139

TeeMassive wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless you have a family. It has to be there when you need it. Here in Québec we had an elected official who used to preach against cars and then once she got elected bought a SUV because, like everyone else with kids, she needed it for her family. The "you shouldn't need to own a car" attitude is arrogant and authoritarian in nature.

No, the authoritarian and arrogant attitude is from those thinking it's their right to drive everywhere at whatever cost to others. And you're missing the point. Why do you need a car because of family? Think further than your own nose tip. Wouldn't it be nice with a society where you didn't have to drive to do any little chore? And the few times you needed to drive, a care from some car sharing service was available…

There is plenty of authoritative and arrogant attitude to go around. Our most precious resource these days is time. If it takes longer it is not acceptable. Once you solve that issue at the same or lower price point then people will (start to) get onboard. I am a car guy and I think that owning a car sucks.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#337

Post by mesarvagya » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 7:43 PM UTC

elefantastisch wrote: post #290

ok_dad wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil ain't a picnic either, so what's the answer?

Grid-powered public transit replacing 80% of trips by personal vehicle.

This. Americans are too used to owning a personal car and driving it even though short trips can be replaced by public transit.

I agree US is too big to be covered by public transit, but if we want to win the climate war, US has to cover all its states and make public transit seamless. Once this goal is complete, discourage owning of personal vehicle.

Also a picture comparing car vs bus [1]. Now compare the green house emission between two.

[1] https://www.boredpanda.com/space-required-to-transport-60-pe...

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#338

Post by dwheeler » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 7:55 PM UTC

malfist wrote: post #100

YPCrumble wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it hard to believe that pulling electricity from the grid would increase carbon emissions vs. a vehicle burning gas in its own engine. How is that possible?

It's not, GP is wrong and making a deceptive argument. The energy grid is already lower carbon than gasoline powered ICE vehicles, especially with natural gas taking over a lot of the energy production. But it's only going to get even better as more and more renewables come online. It's easier for your giant utility company to have the capital to build out a solar farm to power your car/house/etc than it is for you a…

I'm not trying to make a deceptive argument. I may be wrong, but I stated what I thought was an important point: you need generators to decarbonize, not merely a switch to electric cars. Electric cars are an enabler for decarbonization, agreed, but focusing only enabling technology is not enough. It must be coupled with changes in energy generation to achieve a significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. I fear the emphasis on half the problem will leave the problem unsolved.

The article "Factcheck: How electric vehicles help to tackle climate change" https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-...> seems to make the same point (if that's a bad source let me know):

* "EVs are responsible for considerably lower emissions over their lifetime than conventional (internal combustion engine) vehicles across Europe as a whole.

* In countries with coal-intensive electricity generation, the benefits of EVs are smaller and they can have similar lifetime emissions to the most efficient conventional vehicles – such as hybrid-electric models."

Which is my point: we need to decarbonize the generators. The article even goes on to state this: "However, as countries decarbonise electricity generation to meet their climate targets, driving emissions will fall for existing EVs and manufacturing emissions will fall for new EVs." Note the requirement to decarbonize the generators. This is a real issue, for example, in 2021, coal-fired electric power plants accounted for 91% of West Virginia's total electricity net generation https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WV>. There's an assumption by many that utilities' electricity generators will over time produce less carbon dioxide, but I'm not convinced that it will "just happen". Such a change will require continued emphasis over time.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#339

Post by scotty79 » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 8:01 PM UTC

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #296

scotty79 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If some strain of covid crops up that's way more deadly, maybe then we'll permanently transition to not hauling our butts around to stare at computer screens anyways.

Unfortunately there's still a lot of jobs that require said butt hauling.

Yeah, but there's a lot that don't.

Other idea... Employer should by law pay for commute and time spent commuting. And bonus for going to the office shouldn't be less than some minimal amount if the worker doesn't work remotely.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

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Post by keneda7 » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 8:16 PM UTC

tomtheelder wrote: post #328

keneda7 wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again just like the other poster you are trying to move the goal posts. The comment did not say some. The comment said "the fact that America's most walkable and transit-accessible neighborhoods are also the most expensive and highest demand". I provided a single example that proves this statement is not a fact. edit: comment not commit

I don't have a metric for in-demand, but as I said, they are amongst the most expensive on a per-sq-ft basis, which is a much more useful metric for "expensive" than total cost. I didn't move the goalposts at all.

Again you are moving the goal posts.

I will break it down for you. The original poster said 'most expensive' not the 'most expensive on a per-sq-ft basis'. You are arbitrarily adding the words on a per-sq-ft basis because you FEEL like its much more useful. You provide 0 evidence to support this.

For example here is evidence that most people besides you feel that total cost is a much more important and useful metric. The follow sites selling homes list total cost as the main metric NOT the price per sq foot: https://www.zillow.com/ https://www.realtor.com/ https://www.movoto.com/ https://www.redfin.com/ https://www.trulia.com/ https://www.homes.com/

Edit: Here are the top three sites on google when you search "most expensive areas to live in the us". A three seems to use median home price not median price per sq ft. https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/most-expensive-cities-i... https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/most-expensive... https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/08091...