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Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

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Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#231

Post by stcredzero »

dwheeler wrote: post #14

Even if we have more electric vehicles, that doesn't decarbonize anything unless the source of the energy doesn't generate carbon dioxide. In many places you're just moving the source of carbon dioxide (often with a total increase). I think that part is often overlooked.

Even if we have more electric vehicles, that doesn't decarbonize anything unless the source of the energy doesn't generate carbon dioxide.

The point of EVs, is that it liberates that energy use, allowing it to be decarbonized. If the energy storage is in the form of fossil fuels, then this is a significant blocker!

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#232

Post by akgerber »

malfist wrote: post #107
matsemann wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An EV is much heavier, thus you need more energy to move it. But I think in total it should still be a net win for EVs. But the real problem is that we move 2000+ kgs around to move a human of 80 kgs around. EVs don't fix that. EVs are mostly to save the car industry, the solution is to drive less by creating a society where people don't need to own a car and drive everywhere.

> But the real problem is that we move 2000+ kgs around to move a human of 80 kgs around. Why is that a problem? If I want to visit my friend who lives 200 miles away, I'm not going to hop on a bike, or walk, or find a horse and buggie to take me there. Vehicles are not inherently evil. In fact they're a great enabler. Even if we take your example at face value and assume nobody travels beyond their city. How is that…

2000kg+ EVs still have substantial lifecycle carbon footprints even if their local emissions are much lower than a gasoline car. They are certainly useful for 200 mile trips, especially with a group of people, with well-developed road networks & underdeveloped transit networks, but the relative development/utility of different transport networks is a political choice. And 200 mile trips are a small percentage of trips — most are short & local (with the specific radius of local generally depending on a locale's land use regulations).

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#233

Post by BlueTemplar »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #96
rootusrootus wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't any reason people in America couldn't choose such things. They just don't. If the selling of the idea is failing, maybe the idea is the problem and not the people you're selling it to.

To be sure many Americans will worry about the danger of being in the smallest vehicle on the road — having to contend with SUVs, full-size pickup trucks. But just as the Japanese found a foothold in the U.S. auto market in the 70's, if there were an electric car for under $10K I suspect a lot of people would find that their fears could be somewhat tempered.

You mean like the Citroen Ami (2020), from 7k€ ?

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/electriccars/article-114...

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#234

Post by hellweaver666 »

wpm wrote: post #203
jgilias wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good for you! My needs are: - have place for a family of four, two of which are small children; - be something I can use with said family in -15 Celsius; - Be able to be used for a 200km trip weekly with said family; I have an EV.

- two cargo bikes, each ridden by each adult - layers, and canopies for aforementioned e-bikes - train Of course, speaking in the ideal. Just because the car has been the only option for so long doesn't mean it's replacement has to replace every trip either.

I'm a family of five, three kids and my wife and I and we commute around using this method all the time. I do on average 20-30km per day on week days and a little less on the weekend. My 12 year old son bikes along side me on his own bike. If it rains, we put on waterproof clothes. As the Dutch say "we're not made of sugar!". When we need to visit another city (or other parts of Europe) we jump on the train!

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#235

Post by whiddershins »

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

People like cars and find them useful. Otherwise they wouldn’t spend inordinate amounts of money on them.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#237

Post by 778hbff »

vel0city wrote: post #204
778hbff wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if there were an electric car for under $10K Somebody should make a concept car that is electric but without any electronics (apart from battery and the motors, obviously). Apart from the battery, what's expensive in a modern electric car is that you are essentially sitting in a giant smartphone with 4 wheels. Why is that necessary? Electric motors provide the unique opportunity to create vastly simpler (and thus c…

> Why is that necessary? Electric motors provide the unique opportunity to create vastly simpler (and thus cheaper) cars than ICE versions. The majority of the market (dollars-wise, at least) doesn't want a vastly simpler car though. They like having heated leather seats, heated steering wheels, comfortable interiors with good AC and heat, and a decent stereo. Also, its not like you're realistically going to cut the…

Heated seating doesn't need to turn my car into a smartphone. A reasonably simple stereo neither. Bascially what you could have in a car in the 70s.

It would be interesting to know how much cost it would cut to leave out the hundreds of sensors and CAN bus stuff and phone-home interactive NFC magic. Less dev costs, less certification, less maintenance, less licensing.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#238

Post by scythe »

snarfy wrote: post #8

Sodium ion batteries work just as well and should be arriving this year [1]. [1] - https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinas-top-ev-battery-mak...

If they're really arriving this year, I would expect an update that is more recent than Q3 2021.

Lithium-ion batteries have existed for many decades. It's not like nobody ever thought about using sodium, which is the most obvious substitution. The problem is that sodium has a much larger ionic radius, which means that inserting and removing it from the cathode tends to wear that out a lot quicker. As a result, most sodium-ion cathodes are doped manganese oxides, which is basically ignored for lithium batteries since its energy density is low. Even with this, the lifetimes are not ideal.

PNNL announced a breakthrough this July in a nickel-based sodium-ion cathode, but the cycle life (90% at 300, suggesting 80% at ~650) is still significantly shorter than what we expect from lithium (80% at >1000), and any NiO2-based cathode is going to carry an exothermic decomposition risk, electrolyte (Na or Li) notwithstanding. PNNL claims they are competitive with the state of the art in longevity for all Na-ion batteries. Also, the PNNL battery uses 10% cobalt to achieve this.

https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/longer-lasting-sodium-ion-ba...

I expect CATL to release Na-ion batteries for the very-low-cost vehicle market in China, which is not what Americans have come to expect from cars.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#239

Post by matsemann »

stcredzero wrote: post #228
matsemann wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the authoritarian and arrogant attitude is from those thinking it's their right to drive everywhere at whatever cost to others. And you're missing the point. Why do you need a car because of family? Think further than your own nose tip. Wouldn't it be nice with a society where you didn't have to drive to do any little chore? And the few times you needed to drive, a care from some car sharing service was available…

Most people shouldn't need to own a car. Do you understand why making such proclamations about other's lifestyles is authoritarian? Also, it's not so reasonable to declare others "authoritarian" because of the detection of an externality. Unless, one has nominated one's self as a superior arbiter of truth. If you are equal, then it's up to you to convince others.

> Do you understand why making such proclamations about other's lifestyles is authoritarian?

No, I don't. I don't say people shouldn't own a car. I say people shouldn't need to. Please explain how that's authoritarian.

And please stop calling me authoritarian and arrogant just because you disagree with my views..

> Also, it's not so reasonable to declare others "authoritarian" because of the detection of an externality. Unless, one has nominated one's self as a superior arbiter of truth. If you are equal, then it's up to you to convince others.

No, the base case is no cars. The authoritarian view is to demand everyone else has to bend to your will. Children playing outside my house? No, they can't, stcredzero has decided that should be a high speed road for their car. Want to enjoy a peaceful evening? No, stcredzero has overruled you and decided their engine sound is more important. Want to eat outside at a restaurant? No, stcredzero has decided that space is for storing their metal box.

Who is really the authoritarian?

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#240

Post by nickspicer1993 »

ag315 wrote: post #142

It's not just lithium that's the problem; copper is also a major component, and we don't have nearly enough of that either. A full transition to electric vehicles is not viable with current technologies. If we can make a big leap in solid state battery technology then that could make all the difference, but the viability of those is being continuously postponed.

I have dug into this rabbit hole recently and haven't seen any studies indicating Copper is going to be a problem, do you have a source? Cheers
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