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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#691

Post by canadaduane »

rwmj wrote: post #422
testplzignore wrote: post #280

Going with some completely random things this year so that I look like a time traveler. - Magnitude 8 earthquake in British Columbia in November. - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup. - JWST breaks. - Lebron misses 64 games due to a right leg injury. - TCU wins the CFP. - Shipping is blocked for 2 weeks on the Mississippi River near Memphis. - Coinbase collapses. Cryp…

> - Major world leader dies in plane crash in France in March. Part of an attempted coup. This is, errrr, very specific.

It's a great almost-specific prediction! Followers of ancient prophets would be proud. It's the kind of thing that has a 1% chance of being accurate--it sounds very specific because it mentions France, but has ample wiggle room:

- It includes "any major world leader" not just French leaders;

- If a world leader of any stripe were to die in a plane crash next March, people would still argue in favor of the prediction being correct, because the line between "not a major world leader" and "a major world leader" is quite fuzzy with room for "reasonable" debate.

- "Part of an attempted coup" is a great specific-but-broad constraint. What is an "attempted coup", exactly? A "successful coup" would be much more strict, but "attempted coup" leaves both the attempted-and-failed as well as the attempted-and-succeeded variants on the table. Also, one could argue that an "attempted coup" has many possibilities that are not immediately identified as a "coup"--for example, would a violent protest count? What does it mean to be "part of" an attempt? For example, suppose a leader is not part of the attempt personally, but is associated with someone who is. In that case, would the leader who left the country be considered "part of" an attempted coup?

For context: I grew up Mormon and grappled through many prophecies that seemed incredibly "specific" and somehow, incredibly, turned out to be true. This proved Joseph Smith was a true prophet of God.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#692

Post by lazyant »

chaostheory wrote: post #658

- China will attack Guam then Okinawa within 5 years. These bases need to be destroyed as part of its invasion of Taiwan - Globalism will continue to decline due to rising tensions in Asia - Droughts around the world will continue to worsen which will drastically increase food prices and social disorder - climate change will cause a general northern migration - The northern Arctic sea will become a major trade route…

> - China will attack Guam then Okinawa within 5 years. These bases need to be destroyed as part of its invasion of Taiwan

China will attack the US (Guam and Okinawa are basically US military bases, Guam being US territory as well) on their way to Taiwan? seems very unlikely (there are 20k-30k US marines in Okinawa for ex).

> - Canada will have a privatized healthcare system alongside its public one.

Possible, but will require a majority conservative government, which today seems unlikely

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#693

Post by Kon-Peki »

Vespasian wrote: post #681
chaostheory wrote: post #653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drought is hitting Europe and Asia as well. Water will be traded as a commodity if it isn’t already beyond water purification companies. Food prices in North America will continue to climb as drought worsens agriculture in California and Mexico. California supplies most of the food in Western North America, including the Western half of Canada

Yeah it's been hitting even central Europe (Germany, France, Benelux AT/CH etc) for the last few years. It's harder to notice from afar because it's not deserty (yet) but the temperatures are going up all year and with it the obvious problems and also new and "exciting" fauna and flora is arriving. Many places in that area are historically very water rich that's why the consequences to everyday life are often not yet…

No idea about Europe but I think the Colorado River watershed will improve in 2023, ruining any chance of getting meaningful change accomplished - and guaranteeing deadpool by 2030.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#694

Post by unity1001 »

samhuk wrote: post #243
unity1001 wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. You forget the emergence of the creator economy, smaller communities and the move to the early, syndicated nature of the early 2000s Internet. That internet has no problems with any of those. All of the issu…

Not true, unfortunately. Early internet: As long as there was copper, you generally could exchange {protocol} (i.e. HTTP, FTP, POP3, ...) to {person} in {country}, quite freely. Current internet: Many egress and ingress connections are banned by {government agency} of {country}. Future internet: What parent comment was predicting: An increasing number of governments increasingly aggressively ban an increasing number…

> It's really not that hard to imagine, look at China or Russia or many other countries (e.g. Middle-East). Very aggresive white/blacklists of internet services.

Part of the problem is people thinking that such countries are creating the fragmentation whereas it were the US companies who literally partitioned internet through algorithms, walled gardens, filters and blacklists. A national firewall can be circumvented by VPN and many do. Its much harder to circumvent whatever limitations such corporations that control large parts of the internet create.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#695

Post by postsantum »

nkko wrote: post #526
escapecharacter wrote: post #434

- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…

- Twitter will be then divided like a Roman empire and each CEO will reign different geo region.

Users wouldn't notice this though as human users from different regions are gradually being replaced by simulacrum

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#696

Post by smcl »

lelanthran wrote: post #399
smcl wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are no more humans The humans are dead!?

> The humans are dead!? No, they're used as batteries /s

Sorry, I didn't wanna be to obvious but this is a very specific reference (if you wanna skip preamble: 1m 00s) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gNU2WkgvLQ. Pleases don't make us link to or reference any given bit :)

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#697

Post by dmak »

fakedang wrote: post #445
dmak wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just getting started. We're on the verge of seeing the first few billionaire influencers emerge. That will definitely turn heads and drive more money towards that direction. We're also seeing the rise of the children of tech money (I forgot the name to reference this group of people), but they're going to be heavy on influencer lifecycles too.

I disagree. Peak influencer moment was the billionaire status of folks like Kanye, Kardashians, Kylie Jenner, etc. If anything is to be seen from the past year, it's that they're just as vulnerable to the machinations of the mainstream as any one. Moreover, most of their wealth is pure paper - not even publicly traded. With a sure trimming of private valuations, they will definitely be hurt (although their lifestyle…

I should have been more specific. When I said influencers, I was referring to YouTubers, Tiktokers, etc...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#698

Post by fbdab103 »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #615
usehackernews wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bitcoin one I’d disagree with, it was quite easy to see the drop. It never hit 12k, but my target was always 17k, which it did hit. I publicly told many people who asked when it was around 50k to wait for 17k. Simple analysis made this quite clear - The last three crashes had an 85% drop in price, based on the trend, 17k was the target. I don’t see it going to 5k, to this point, the crash has followed historical…

The only thing sillier than technical analysis is using technical analysis on make-believe money. Looking for a pattern is human nature. Your “sample size” of 3 is by no means indicative of anything. “Historical precedence” - they teach you to never use these words when working in finance. Bitcoin going to $5k is absolutely in play this year when the scammy house of cards that is Tether finally collapses.

If/when Tether goes down, I would be surprised if Bitcoin stays above $1k.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#699

Post by davidy123 »

joshlemer wrote: post #591
davidy123 wrote: post #432

According to ChatGPT (sorry!) Give me a summary of `Array.from(document.querySelectorAll('[indent="0"]')).map(a => a.parentNode.querySelector('.commtext').innerText).filter(a => a.length > 10 && a.length a.replace(/reply$/, '')).join('\n');` «These predictions discuss various expected events and developments in the year 2023. These include the rise of robotic beings and the end of human rule, changes in language and…

How are you getting past the prompt size limit?

That's why I had to limit the length (`< 550`), to keep the total size down.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#700

Post by chaostheory »

lazyant wrote: post #692
chaostheory wrote: post #658

- China will attack Guam then Okinawa within 5 years. These bases need to be destroyed as part of its invasion of Taiwan - Globalism will continue to decline due to rising tensions in Asia - Droughts around the world will continue to worsen which will drastically increase food prices and social disorder - climate change will cause a general northern migration - The northern Arctic sea will become a major trade route…

> - China will attack Guam then Okinawa within 5 years. These bases need to be destroyed as part of its invasion of Taiwan China will attack the US (Guam and Okinawa are basically US military bases, Guam being US territory as well) on their way to Taiwan? seems very unlikely (there are 20k-30k US marines in Okinawa for ex). > - Canada will have a privatized healthcare system alongside its public one. Possible, but wi…

Guam is the closest US naval base of operations for Taiwan’s defense. This isn’t a new revelation.

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/frontline-guam-strategic-deter...

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/military-guam-china-war-taiw...

Unfortunately while Guam has missile defenses, it’s close enough to China where the CCP can technically just overwhelm the island with enough missiles.

> Possible, but will require a majority conservative government, which today seems unlikely

No it won’t. It just needs enough moderates to support it like in the EU. Canada’s budget won’t be able to support socialized healthcare unless

1. The number of retirees drastically decreases in relation to the number of working adults. This is hard due to the increasing xenophobia in Canada,

2. Benefits gets cut for everyone or just gets cut for retirees. Taxes are already too high, or

3. Take some of the load off the public system while giving people an option for private healthcare, while still subsidizing public healthcare for everyone else

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