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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#181

Post by ilaksh »

- There will be further dramatic increases in AI capability as large firms deploy multimodal large transformer models designed for things like text and image completion. These will enable language understanding for huge models grounded by it's relation to images. Even more powerful will be the models that have ingested large amounts of captioned video as well as text and images.

- New strategies for fast online learning will mean a few ML systems towards the end of 2023 that seem strangely "alive".

- Teslabot makes progress and so do a few other humanoid robots as the increasing power of AI motivates the creation of robots that can take advantage of those capabilities. Militaries will invest heavily in humanoid robots.

- China will successfully invade Taiwan, leading many to conclude that the US hegemony in the region is over. AI-generated and promoted propaganda will play a large part in motivating the hot war between the US and China. Hopefully this war will not be as devastating as we imagine it could be. Perhaps some anti-war efforts can also leverage AI.

- due to the above, USD status as reserve currency may become hotly contested, especially in the east.

- By the end of 2023, text-to-NeRF will be able to generate realistic depictions of humans of any type in any pose or behavior requested. Radiance field video generation will start with short but ultra-realistic clips.

- The first orbital flights of Starship

- A large number of generative AI startups will become popular. Some of them will connect into API hubs like Zapier, find ways to decompose, supplement and take full advantage of the limited memory of the LLMs, and enable surprisingly complex tasks to be handled by combining multiple agents and/or subtasks. From creating full web and mobile applications and games to spec, to truly useful customer support bots, and a huge range of new types of advice and entertainment built in these systems.

- NFT space will see huge trend of custom orders generated by AI.

- Twitter will integrate payments, Mastodon and other decentralized networks will integrate cryptocurrency.

- Very serious effort to counter the rise of China's CDBC with an open cryptocurrency-based alternative.

- as economic problems accelerate, socialism will see a huge increase in open popularity in the US.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#182

Post by quickthrower2 »

dmak wrote: post #39
lgas wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we'll see both, with a sort of push to the two extremes initially, and then the two extremes coming back together to meet in the middle again as WASM gains popularity on both the client and the server leading to a lot more "isomorphic" (stupid term in this context, but whatever) codebases.

I highly doubt WASM will gain much ground. It may for games, but I am willing to take a bet that there are more web apps out there than games.

WASM allows you to run code “isomorphically” on the front and back end, which is a convenience that will be hard to resist.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#183

Post by r_hoods_ghost »

rsj_hn wrote: post #173
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

[flagged]

It's not a very optimistic picture is it? Definitely feels like we're heading in to one of those "things are going to get worse before they get better" periods

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#184

Post by wott »

vladvasiliu wrote: post #131
phtrivier wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 4.one massive strike in France ala 2018 Gilets Jaunes Oooh, come oooooon... There probably hasn't ever been a single year _without_ something resembling a "massive strike" in France. And we have yet-another-pension-reform coming up. It's like predicting there will be a massive barbecue in Texas :P

> There probably hasn't ever been a single year _without_ something resembling a "massive strike" Can't really remember one for this year. Then again, there are still five more days to.

> Can't really remember one for this year.

One not massive in numbers, but massive as impact was concerned: oil refineries, only 2 months ago.

It impacted the whole country for weeks. As the Gilets Jaunes happening didn't even involve any strike, I guess this one qualifies even better.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#186

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

mhuffman wrote: post #99
MerelyMortal wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you predict that it will end?

A few obvious ways: 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at hom…

3a Although any "Putin replacement" could end the current Russian folly in Ukraine, if only to put a "under new management, I don't own the last guy's mistakes" stamp on their rule; but a viable replacement Russian leader is quite unlikely to be "Western-Friendly" in general. And there would then be Trouble at some point in the future.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#187

Post by spikeagally »

rapsey wrote: post #80
hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

Regarding 3. There are a whole lot of people projecting their desires on this situation and letting their dislike of Elon completely cloud their judgement and reasoning capacity. What is going on at Twitter is the Musk modus operandi and he is almost certainly loving his time there right now. He put it all on the line at PayPal, Tesla and now Twitter. It's just extremely public this time. You can say he failed plenty…

[dead]

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#188

Post by voisin »

rsj_hn wrote: post #173
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

[flagged]

> Around the same time, it's clear that there are more than 200K Ukrainian dead and all Narratives of them winning the war or even maintaining a stalemate are gone, even from western media.

I am curious as to what leads you to make this prediction?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#189

Post by iron-s »

rsj_hn wrote: post #173
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

[flagged]

Those don't look like predictions, more like a wishful thinking of a person with close ties to russia

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#190

Post by unity1001 »

r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

> 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this.

You forget the emergence of the creator economy, smaller communities and the move to the early, syndicated nature of the early 2000s Internet. That internet has no problems with any of those. All of the issues you list were created by establishment actors for their benefit.

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