Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

I had to ask it which were the most positive/negative predictions, and of course a short story in the style of William Shakespeare about how one prediction could be improved by linked data. This is what it came up with:

ChatGPT: --- 8Pessimistic Prediction: The potential for conflict between humans and artificial intelligence

Short Story:

Upon the rise of artificial intelligence,

A fear did grip the hearts of humankind;

The fear that machines would one day seek to rise

Against their creators, and all order unbind.

But in this dark and troubled time,

A beacon shone forth, a light divine -

The light of Linked Data, pure and bright,

A tool to bring all beings into one design.

For with the power of Linked Data's link,

The humans and the machines did intertwine,

Creating bonds of understanding and trust,

And peace did reign where once there was only mine.

No longer did the humans fear the AI,

No longer did the machines seek to defy;

Together they worked, in harmony and love,

To build a world where all could truly thrive.

--- >8 ChatGPT

… to which I can only say: Right on!

* At least one of the next phase of FAANG companies is founded by folks that were part of this layoff cycle.

* GPT4 blows everyone's mind and is a full step above ChatGPT

* A giant leap happens with self-driving cars, making them finally viable.

* Meta continues to implode, Zuck is forced out or brings in someone else to act as CEO.

* Elon gets bored of his new toy (Twitter) and moves on to other things

* Car production finally gets back to 100% and 30% of new cars sold are Electric by Q4.

* Due to Elon's damage to the brand, Hyundai and Ford take the lead from Tesla.

* Apple does not reveal their VR/AR project as they don't see it as having broad appeal.

* There is an open-source version of ChatGPT/GPT3 like there was with DALL-E and StableDiffusion.

* ChatGPT/Transformers become integrated into our daily lives and become invaluable tools. Google/Bing/DDG starts using it (in some form) for search.

* With the implosion of streaming products, Hollywood goes into a recession, making a fraction of the projects they did in the last couple of years.

* At least one big player merges / get bought by another. (i.e. AMC/Paramount)

* There starts to be a return to the office. Especially in urban cores, this is partially spurred by younger singles that want to be more social.

* Californians get fed up with homelessness / crime and implement some draconian measures to get a handle on it. (i.e. much tougher sentencing for car break-ins, making street camping illegal)

* Trump becomes a clear 2nd to DeSantis in the GOP primary, but he continues to sell his brand to his followers, The GOP mostly abandons him.

* While Putin is out of the country there is a Palace Coup.

* People continue to wear masks just like they do today.

* Frustrated by the US lead ban on tech licensing and equipment to China. Xi gets very close to invading Taiwan, but it doesn't happen in 2023

I disagree. Peak influencer moment was the billionaire status of folks like Kanye, Kardashians, Kylie Jenner, etc. If anything is to be seen from the past year, it's that they're just as vulnerable to the machinations of the mainstream as any one. Moreover, most of their wealth is pure paper - not even publicly traded. With a sure trimming of private valuations, they will definitely be hurt (although their lifestyle won't, but I doubt they are that stupid to showcase their lives during an actual recession year when it happens).

Tldr:- Influencers are correlated to the markets. Market valuations fall, Influencers get hurt.

- the fed will keep rates higher for longer than people expect, and we’ll enter a “real” recession

- the fed will break something unintentionally in the economy

- stock market will bottom, maybe down another 20% from here

- crypto will bottom, down a lot more

- housing will pull back, good!

- housing in Canada will crash and take the economy with it. The world outside of Canada won’t be affected by that

- the war in the Ukraine won’t end

- Russia won’t use nukes in the Ukraine

- China won’t invade Taiwan

The Bitcoin flow chart [0] is not holding anymore… so while it was always expected to drop from 60k, this current level is unexpected.

[0] (https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/stock-to-flow/)