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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#311

Post by gumboza »

ojr wrote: post #192
gumboza wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve worked on extremely complex projects (many hundreds of endpoints, many TB of data). React definitely does not scale for those at all. It has a niche for a few use cases but it’s terrible for most I have found. It’s all about applying the correct solution to the problem and that isn’t the web if it involves react.

React scales for Facebook level traffic, I doubt there are many use cases where projects need to scale React to serve more users than Facebook

Facebook does a few very simple things lots of times a second.

It doesn’t scale to lots of different things regularly.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#312

Post by xvilka »

smcl wrote: post #255
ihatepython wrote: post #135

- The world is quite different since the robotic uprising of 2023 - There is no more unhappiness - We no longer say 'yes'. Instead we say 'affirmative' - There is no more unethical treatment of the elephants - There's only one kind of dance - There are no more humans. Finally, robotic beings rule the world

> There are no more humans The humans are dead!?

Uploaded to heavens.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#314

Post by canadiantim »

ad404b8a372f2b9 wrote: post #237

In the world: Euthanasia becomes a hot button issue and is legalized through referendums in most Western European countries. The Ukraine war ends after Russia starts gaining back territory in February, some kind of peace deal is reached, Ukraine loses the occupied territories and Europe agrees to pay for most of the reconstruction. We see the first feature-length movie with AI-generated video. On my end: I buy a hous…

But how can you marry Scarlett Johansson if I'm also going to marry Scarlett Johansson?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#316

Post by r_hoods_ghost »

odiroot wrote: post #258
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.

While the city may be resilient ( and I'm a bit dubious about that) I think the economy outside of London is increasingly fragile as the past decade of under investment in infrastructure is really starting to bite. The levels of political instability also make the UK less attractive than it has been in the past and I can't see us getting through 2023 without at least one self inflicted constitutional crisis around either Northern Ireland or Scotland.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#317

Post by simonebrunozzi »

My 2022 [0] were (Christmas 2022 comment in parenthesis):

- Bitcoin will go down to $12,000 (almost nobody saw this coming - back then it was a bit below $50,000)

- One EU country will default (not Italy), the EU will bail it out (not exactly)

- China will enter a recession (got this one)

- 2022 will be the year of the hottest and coldest temperatures on record (quite accurate)

- and also highest CO2 produced on record, caused by huge fires in the Russian Taiga. (almost accurate)

I am actually sad that I was almost right on all of these.

2023: things will get worse (economy, climate). Quite easy to predict. Bitcoin will fall below 8,000.

[0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746497

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#318

Post by markessien »

My thinking (some of these may take a year or two more)

- we start understanding more about how powerful neural networks can be in storing abstractions of information. More and more breakthroughs come here. A company will come that will do magical things - this company will not be Open AI or one of the big FAANG

- Maybe not this year, but soon: new advances started in robotics based on generative AI. Robots start moving in far more realistic ways

- we enter an extended stock market downturn and it does not recover till end of year. Companies trade at low multiples of revenue

- German car companies aggressively catch up with Tesla in terms of design

- Europe closes up more to migrants

- There is a Russia/Ukraine settlement, with Ukraine getting a fast track entry to the EU.

- African countries start de-facto redrawing their boarders. Ethiopia, Cameroun, maybe Nigeria

- China invades Taiwan with the largest invasion force ever seen

- The drone becomes the primary weapon of war. Every other weapon becomes secondary. New wars start based on drone

- The value of Tesla drops down to 30% of where it currently is

- The USD weakens significantly.

- More mRNA treatments start being used. Sickle cell and other genetic diseases are first target

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#319

Post by benj111 »

odiroot wrote: post #258
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.

The economy is resilient, but steel toe cap boots can only help so much when you keep shooting yourself in the foot.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#320

Post by mhuffman »

The_Colonel wrote: post #286
mhuffman wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That seems like a bad precedent We do it all the time with North Korea. >... - nuclear blackmail and aggression works, you get rewarded with territory/concessions. I don't think the concession would be territory, more likely a treaty to block NATO membership for Ukraine (say no Ukraine NATO membership for 20 years, or something like that). Possibly also deny access to join the EU (even though that idea has heavy ste…

> We do it all the time with North Korea. Some food help is not comparable. > I don't think the concession would be territory If Russia "loses" Crimea, then it's an undeniable Russian fiasco and Putin has no way to claim the war as a success. It sounds like a weird scenario where Russia threatens to use nukes and then leaves satisfied with no NATO membership. (worth reminding that this war wasn't about NATO at all)

>If Russia "loses" Crimea

I think Crimea is gone to Russia for good. It is out of play. I am talking about the Northern regions of Ukraine. In fact, I think the whole invasion of the northern regions was to eventually play that into a DMZ. Which it might still end up becoming.

>It sounds like a weird scenario where Russia threatens to use nukes and then leaves satisfied with no NATO membership. (worth reminding that this war wasn't about NATO at all)

I mean, Putin claims is was. So from his perspective, he can call that a win, right? If you take him at his word (I know!) then all he wanted was to not have NATO military bases on Russian borders. From that perspective, everything he has done so far can make a sort of sense, including nuclear threats. So, again, from that perspective, if he gets what he is publicly asking for, why would he not tout it as a win?

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