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Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

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Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#231

Post by shagie »

tempsy wrote: post #164
vannevar wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here isn't the study---of course we should study possible vaccine side effects. The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who have (quite wrongly, based on available evidence) become convinced that the vaccines are a greater threat to healthy people than the virus is. As unlikely as it is that an otherwise healthy young person will die from covid, it is even less likely that they'll d…

Ok, so if you believe your chance of dying of covid is improbably small due to age and overall health, why is it necessary to be vaccinated even if there's only a small chance of side effects? Rare is not zero. I don't even take OTC pain killers like advil unless I absolutely feel like I have to.

That first part is a mistaken belief.

There's also a useful metric for the "chance of dying" - it's known as a micromort. Each micromort is a one in a million chance of dying https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort

A fair bit of statistical work has been done on COVID-19 and it is summarized in the wikipedia article.

    AstraZeneca vaccination against COVID-19 – 2.9 micromorts[31]
    COVID-19 infection at age 10 – 20 micromorts
    COVID-19 infection at age 25 – 100 micromorts
    COVID-19 infection at age 55 – 4,000 micromorts
    COVID-19 infection at age 65 – 14,000 micromorts
    COVID-19 infection at age 75 – 46,000 micromorts
    COVID-19 infection at age 85 – 150,000 micromorts [32]
Yes, many people survived - but those are not numbers I want to be betting against on a daily basis.

NYT - Putting the Risk of Covid-19 in Perspective Is the risk of dying from Covid-19 comparable to driving to work every day, skydiving or being a soldier in a war?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-ris...

> Converting this to micromort language, an individual living in New York City has experienced roughly 50 additional micromorts of risk per day because of Covid-19. That means you were roughly twice as likely to die as you would have been if you were serving in the U.S. armed forces in Afghanistan throughout 2010, a particularly deadly year.

Rare is not zero - but if you are risk adverse, then avoiding things that are fairly high up on the risk counter would be reasonable. Likewise, if there are two options (driving in a car vs driving in a motor cycle), taking the one that adds the least amount of additional risk is reasonable.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#232

Post by jgalt212 »

mrtksn wrote: post #157
nulld3v wrote: post #67

I am vaccinated but I am upvoting this post because I believe that it is important to investigate these cases to determine how to improve future vaccines. I really don't like how this topic seems to be treated like some fringe conspiracy theory. Maybe it is just a conspiracy, but we won't ever know until sufficient research has been done. Currently, I still believe that people should vaccinate, even if vaccines cause…

This paper doesn't claim that mRNA vaccines are dangerous, it investigates through autopsy 35 people in a region of Germany who died within 20 days of vaccination and only 5 of the deaths are found to show myocarditis of which only 3 somewhat might be attributed to the vaccine. This is not an expose of big Pharma or anything like that, I don't know why the HN comments are acting as if this is some kind of research su…

Fair enough, but everyone was compelled to get the vaccine (regardless of age or risk factors). Given that, the vaccine makers and proponents leave themselves open to such criticisms that would not be valid if the vaccine was not compelled on my 7 year old.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#233

Post by nulld3v »

manwe150 wrote: post #137
nulld3v wrote: post #67

I am vaccinated but I am upvoting this post because I believe that it is important to investigate these cases to determine how to improve future vaccines. I really don't like how this topic seems to be treated like some fringe conspiracy theory. Maybe it is just a conspiracy, but we won't ever know until sufficient research has been done. Currently, I still believe that people should vaccinate, even if vaccines cause…

I agree it is good we keep funding studies to try to better understand and predict the effects of the vaccines. What would it mean to feel like we have a good understanding though? How would we quantify "god"? We have observed that the side-effects have minimal deviation from the normal variations observed in the population for those effects. And we also know it is highly dependent on individual characteristics as to…

> What would it mean to feel like we have a good understanding though? How would we quantify "god"?

That is a hard question and honestly I don't have the knowledge to answer it.

> We have observed that the side-effects have minimal deviation from the normal variations observed in the population for those effects. And we also know it is highly dependent on individual characteristics as to who exhibits the worst side-effects or best antibody response.

Yeah, I get that the vaccine can cause side effects for a very small minority of the population. I think what I want is for vaccine side-effects to be treated more like plane crashes. I get that bad things happen, but if it isn't cost-prohibitive, I would like to know why these things happened, even if they happen extremely rarely.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#234

Post by spacefracas »

gfodor wrote: post #133
lanstin wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As we also coerce babies into screening for various diseaaes and for vax against the diseases that afflict societies without this science. That is how it works. That is why we mostly don't die from infectious diseases for the first time since we built cities.

Not for an emergency use drug that doesn’t maintain herd immunity for a disease that is minimally harmful to children and is under immense selective pressure to break out of the vaccine. Maybe you’ve got a bad mental model because of the word “vaccine.” This is not a vaccine of the kind we give children, in terms of what it prevents and the extent of data and knowledge we have of its side effects.

This is incorrect. Of the vaccines that are given to children, none prevent infection. All significantly prevent disease and death.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#235

Post by mtillman »

dtauzell wrote: post #199
vannevar wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because a) the risk from covid, while small, is still greater than the risk from the vaccines and b) unvaccinated people are more likely to be infected and become a vector for the virus, infecting other people.

Is there any evidence for (b)? My understanding is that you are just as likely to get vaccinated and "shed" the virus for just as long, but are less likely to be severely sick.

I think you mean "get sick" which is untrue. You are less likely to get sick if vaccinated. You are also less likely to experience severe symptoms if vaccinated. https://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/preventive-care/va...

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#236

Post by ejb999 »

manwe150 wrote: post #195
librish wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What constitutes a 'serious adverse event' in this data? Do you mind linking the source? Having a 1 in 3000 chance of getting so sick you need to be hospitalized seems quite bad.

In case they don't answer, I would guess they are referring to VAERS data, and some random guy who once claimed it underreports everything by 40x. This is not logistically plausible (where would you hide 40x more patients than expected arriving at hospitals?), and I have seen some recent studies suggest that the underreporting factor is actually <1x (meaning it is overreported) when doing statistically random samplin…

the 40x is possible, and even likely - but that is often twisted to suggest that if there were (for example) 10,000 reported deaths in vaers, then it must mean there were 400,000 actual deaths from the vaccine - yes, there is a lot of under-reporting, and maybe even a 40x factor, but those unreported events are usually of the trivial kind - i.e. 'I had a sore arm after getting the shot' - likely trivial symptoms are under-reported by quite a bit - not plausible that there are 40 deaths for every reported one.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#237

Post by ceejayoz »

hammock wrote: post #193
Ensorceled wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, by "we", you mean politicians. These clowns are also all saying it's 100% effective which was known to be false from day 1.

You asked for an epidemiologist. I gave you two of the world's foremost practicing infectious disease experts : Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, Mass General chief of Infectious Diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital; and Monica Gandhi MD, MPH, Associate Chief of the Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine at UCSF. It seems you're being intellectually dishonest

Monica Gandhi has been repeatedly wrong, claiming herd immunity in India right before somewhere between 1-3 million died, to the point of having to apologize for it. https://twitter.com/MehdiHasanShow/status/148940441066927719...

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#238

Post by mrtksn »

jgalt212 wrote: post #232
mrtksn wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This paper doesn't claim that mRNA vaccines are dangerous, it investigates through autopsy 35 people in a region of Germany who died within 20 days of vaccination and only 5 of the deaths are found to show myocarditis of which only 3 somewhat might be attributed to the vaccine. This is not an expose of big Pharma or anything like that, I don't know why the HN comments are acting as if this is some kind of research su…

Fair enough, but everyone was compelled to get the vaccine (regardless of age or risk factors). Given that, the vaccine makers and proponents leave themselves open to such criticisms that would not be valid if the vaccine was not compelled on my 7 year old.

If everyone was compelled how the vaccination rates are so low?

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#239

Post by udp »

addingadimensio wrote: post #214
gwd wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know what also causes myocarditis? COVID-19 [1]. So the choices were: 1. Don't pressure young people to get vaccinated. Nearly everyone who's unvaccinated eventually catches COVID-19. Some of them would have severe reactions and die; or spend time in a hospital, taking up space and delaying care for others, causing those other people to die. Nearly all of them would pass COVID-19 on to other people, many of whom…

You still get Covid after you are vaccinated. Fun fact if you are vaccinated before you catch Covid you cannot develop an immunity to the nucleocapsid is this good is this bad I don’t know tune in in 10 years when we know more

> if you are vaccinated before you catch Covid you cannot develop an immunity to the nucleocapsid

Do you have a reference?

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#240

Post by gfodor »

fzeroracer wrote: post #222
gfodor wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The claim I am making is it appears likely to me that at least some of these cases are fatal, which would mean the underlying mechanism of action for this side effect of the drug can, in the worst case, cause death. This ought to influence the ethics of mandating it at a minimum.

What I'm saying is that the mechanism with which the vaccine can cause myocarditis might be the exact same mechanism that triggers myocarditis but worse for people who catch COVID-19, as brought up in the study. If the myocarditis is the result of the immune system's response to the spike protein then both COVID-19 and the COVID-19 vaccine will trigger myocarditis in those individuals. In this case the 'mechanism' is…

So the argument is that if the vaccine causes this the same way COVID does, the risk of death would have been higher had they got COVID?

You’ll have to excuse my skepticism, because setting things up so that we end up in a situation where it’s entirely unfalsifiable if the vaccine caused net harm in an individual has been par for the course. I reject the premise that even if it’s an immunological response shared by with COVID we should run with that to the assumption that catching COVID would have yielded a higher risk profile. That takes a far leap ahead of the science.

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