Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination • Hacker News Board

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#191

Post by Mikeb85 » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 7:57 PM UTC

librish wrote: post #105

Mikeb85 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but aren't the side-effects of covid well established, on average more severe, and much more common? You forgot to account for the risk of getting the virus. If you choose to get the vaccine, the probability is 1. But what's the probability of getting Covid? Definitely less than 1. For certain age groups (young men), the risk of complications * probability of getting the vaccine (1) was more than the risk of compli…

COVID is much less dangerous to younger people but there are still very real risks involved, especially non-lethal ones. Assuming a 25% probability of catching it, how are you coming to the conclusion that the risk of the vaccine is higher?

> risk of the vaccine is higher?

I said within a certain demographic... For old people, the vaccine is obviously worth it. Boys/men from age 10-30, probably not. Hell, a bunch of EU countries literally stopped giving young people the Moderna vaccine:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/11/10/germany-f...

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#192

Post by bena » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 7:58 PM UTC

mrtksn wrote: post #157

nulld3v wrote: post #67

I am vaccinated but I am upvoting this post because I believe that it is important to investigate these cases to determine how to improve future vaccines. I really don't like how this topic seems to be treated like some fringe conspiracy theory. Maybe it is just a conspiracy, but we won't ever know until sufficient research has been done. Currently, I still believe that people should vaccinate, even if vaccines cause…

This paper doesn't claim that mRNA vaccines are dangerous, it investigates through autopsy 35 people in a region of Germany who died within 20 days of vaccination and only 5 of the deaths are found to show myocarditis of which only 3 somewhat might be attributed to the vaccine. This is not an expose of big Pharma or anything like that, I don't know why the HN comments are acting as if this is some kind of research su…

Tell that to this guy: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34004500

He is acting like it's support of anti-vaxxer claims. And it is why these articles get shared. Because they contain a very slight, practically negligible affirmation of the smallest portion of their claims. And that, in their eyes, is enough to proclaim victory.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#193

Post by hammock » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 7:58 PM UTC

Ensorceled wrote: post #180

hammock wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Who is "we", I have never seen anything other the claims that there were claims. Can you point me to an epidemiologist that made this claim. https://twitter.com/guccibase/status/1488297386208378889 Included in the video: Rochelle Walensky, Monica Gandhi

Ah, by "we", you mean politicians. These clowns are also all saying it's 100% effective which was known to be false from day 1.

You asked for an epidemiologist. I gave you two of the world's foremost practicing infectious disease experts : Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, Mass General chief of Infectious Diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital; and Monica Gandhi MD, MPH, Associate Chief of the Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine at UCSF.

It seems you're being intellectually dishonest

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#194

Post by addingadimensio » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 7:58 PM UTC

usefulcat wrote: post #94

Mikeb85 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but aren't the side-effects of covid well established, on average more severe, and much more common? You forgot to account for the risk of getting the virus. If you choose to get the vaccine, the probability is 1. But what's the probability of getting Covid? Definitely less than 1. For certain age groups (young men), the risk of complications * probability of getting the vaccine (1) was more than the risk of compli…

> COVID hasn't been shown to be particularly dangerous to young people... In the short term yes, in the long term, that is not known.

No post body was provided.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#195

Post by manwe150 » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 7:58 PM UTC

librish wrote: post #141

adamiscool8 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to my governments stats, the COVID-19 hospitalization rate for my age + health cohort, when modestly adjusted for their known undercount of cases, is less than 1 in 3000. Also by their stats, more than 1 in 2000 4-dose mRNA vaccine series have resulted in a serious adverse event reported by a health professional. Then, factoring in the additional risk of acquiescing bodily autonomy to an opaque bureaucracy…

What constitutes a 'serious adverse event' in this data? Do you mind linking the source? Having a 1 in 3000 chance of getting so sick you need to be hospitalized seems quite bad.

In case they don't answer, I would guess they are referring to VAERS data, and some random guy who once claimed it underreports everything by 40x. This is not logistically plausible (where would you hide 40x more patients than expected arriving at hospitals?), and I have seen some recent studies suggest that the underreporting factor is actually <1x (meaning it is overreported) when doing statistically random sampling. But that does not stop people from repeating the claim ad nauseam.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#196

Post by adamiscool8 » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 7:59 PM UTC

librish wrote: post #141

adamiscool8 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to my governments stats, the COVID-19 hospitalization rate for my age + health cohort, when modestly adjusted for their known undercount of cases, is less than 1 in 3000. Also by their stats, more than 1 in 2000 4-dose mRNA vaccine series have resulted in a serious adverse event reported by a health professional. Then, factoring in the additional risk of acquiescing bodily autonomy to an opaque bureaucracy…

What constitutes a 'serious adverse event' in this data? Do you mind linking the source? Having a 1 in 3000 chance of getting so sick you need to be hospitalized seems quite bad.

The true hospitalization risk from COVID could be 1/4th to 1/10th that given that cases are widely estimated to be 4-10X what was reported.

The serious adverse event definition and rates are defined here: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccine-safety/ut...

1 in 9000 doses reportedly results in a SAE, so if you are mandated to take 4 doses, your risk becomes ~0.04% or ~1/2500.

This also does not factor in the risk of "adverse events of special interest", which can be serious or non-serious (though neither seems great for the end user).

And looking at how this page has been updated since the last time I saw it, another red flag is how they separate those out - with a dead link to boot. In my opinion a continuation of efforts that seem intent on obfuscating the ability to make individual risk calculations through this pandemic.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#197

Post by addingadimensio » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 7:59 PM UTC

putnambr wrote: post #127

usefulcat wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> COVID hasn't been shown to be particularly dangerous to young people... In the short term yes, in the long term, that is not known.

In addition, ask any young person involved in sports how catching COVID has affected their training and performance. For mostly sedentary people it might feel like catching a bad cold and then recovering. If you're actually consistently pushing your lungs to their max there's definitely long-lasting (maybe not long-term) damage there.

Covid hasnt infected the lower respiratory tract since what Delta? come on keep up with the strains.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#198

Post by SketchySeaBeast » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 8:00 PM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #175

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it’s not unreasonable to think we killed tens of thousands of people with them. I mean, what is this if not a conclusion you're trying to draw?

Saying it’s not unreasonable means there is some significant probability that we may ultimately determine this to be the case. The conclusion is about the range of probabilities, not the actual state of reality. But probabilities matter when you are deploying policies like mandating kids take this drug to go to college.

> there is some significant probability that we may ultimately determine this to be the case

I still don't see proof of that.

> But probabilities matter when you are deploying policies like mandating kids take this drug to go to college.

Again, this study doesn't involve "kids".

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#199

Post by dtauzell » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 8:00 PM UTC

vannevar wrote: post #178

tempsy wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so if you believe your chance of dying of covid is improbably small due to age and overall health, why is it necessary to be vaccinated even if there's only a small chance of side effects? Rare is not zero. I don't even take OTC pain killers like advil unless I absolutely feel like I have to.

Because a) the risk from covid, while small, is still greater than the risk from the vaccines and b) unvaccinated people are more likely to be infected and become a vector for the virus, infecting other people.

Is there any evidence for (b)? My understanding is that you are just as likely to get vaccinated and "shed" the virus for just as long, but are less likely to be severely sick.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#200

Post by bakoo » Thu, Dec 15, 2022, 8:00 PM UTC

librish wrote: post #39

A question for vaccine skeptics: For it to be a reasonable choice to not want to take the vaccine wouldn't you need to balance the risk of death / complications from the vaccine against the risk of death / complications from covid multiplied by the risk of getting covid? There seems to be a lot of "aha I knew it" whenever any side-effect of the vaccine is found, but aren't the side-effects of covid well established,…

> Aren't the side-effects of covid well established, on average more severe, and much more common?

There is no doubt that we'd have a lot more deaths without the vaccines. I suspect that is true for at least some of the lockdowns too.

In my experience, people aren't very good at assessing risks. Actively doing something that comes with a certain risk is often perceived as being more dangerous than passively hoping to avoid what is objectively known to be the greater risk.

If those risks are then contested or associated with a high degree of uncertainty, making an active choice often becomes a question of deferring the decision to someone you really trust. If you don't trust anyone, you're not likely to do anything.

An anecdote - I know a few people who didn't get the vaccine, or got it a lot later than everyone else, and more often than not they have had bad health care experiences in the past. When you've been on the receiving end of one or more mistakes of that kind, it isn't difficult to understand how waiting to see what happens seems like the smarter choice.