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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5% is not that much higher than historic averages. 1990 had 5.4% inflation, and 2008 close to 4%.

Worse than 2008, got it.

Well, yes, and no, the crash of 2008 caused deflationary pressure, and below [Federal Reserve] (annualized average) target inflation until 2020.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#472
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coke’s advertising isn’t “hey this is what Coke is” it’s “hey aren’t you thirsty and don’t you remember how much fun you’ve had in the past while drinking Coke?”

I've never once grabbed a coke because of seeing a commercial. And I barely drink it because I have enough sugar in my life and don't want my kids chugging soda all day long like I did as a kid. So I do see your point, I just don't get how that influences people. But again, I recognize it must to enough of a degree- I just don't feel like I'm one of them so it's hard to personally understand. Maybe I am, but I think…

>Maybe I am, but I think I'm being objective about it.

Sure, not every person is a Coke consumer. What drinks do you drink?

Keep in mind, a very meaningful part of Coke's (and any other CPG company) advertising budget is paying grocery stores to put their products in prominent locations.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#473
post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is partly what we’re seeing. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in October, or 4.8% seasonally adjusted. That’s above target, but better than YoY.

Seasonally adjusted != multiply by 12. Prices naturally fluctuate throughout the year due to weather, consumer patterns, and business cycles. Seasonal adjustment is an attempt to account for those changes.

Beyond seasonal price fluctuations, wouldn't it be 1.04^12 = ~6% annually?

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#474

Anyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.

Prices around here have stayed the same or gone up a bit, but the sales have dried up. You could almost always get Coke on sale at the grocery store for half the "list price" now that's much rarer.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#475
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Anyone else feel like this is such a dumb way for the general public to track inflation. Like, a simple line chart with the X axis being time and the Y axis being the price of a basket of goods would be so much clearer

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did student loan cancellation reverse inflation reduction when it's on hold due to legal challenges? No one has received a penny.

I haven’t been paying anything since non-penalized forbearance started. Why pay when interest is 0% and there’s no penalty for not paying? I’ve been using money that normally goes to loans for other bills. I imagine plenty of other people are buying more stuff with the money so i imagine it does contribute to inflation

This is a potential contributor to inflation, but it wasn't part of the student loan forgiveness bill, and instead supports the proposition that inflation is mostly related to COVID-19 measures, which include this forbearance.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it a bad idea to buy a new gas car? ExxonMobil is not going to stop pumping oil out of the ground.

My reasons: in 10 years time most local gas stations will be closed, 95% of the demand for used cars will be for electrics and 97% of the supply will be gasoline so the car will only have its scrap metal value. But most people aren't thinking that far ahead. They just know I can recharge my car for $10 but it costs them $100 to refill theirs. They know that electricity prices are a lot more stable than gas prices.

I agree with your general sentiment, but I think this timeline doesn't necessarily extrapolate well for the United States. The average age of a vehicle on the road in the US is about 12 years - aftermarket suppliers as well as oil/gas companies have a very strong incentive to plan that far ahead in order to keep up with the demand. Especially given that the quantity of gas vehicles on the road will be, as you say, such a large percentage of the market.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#478
post #350
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on your time horizon. In the very short term, inflation linked bonds as other comments mention. In the 15+ year bracket, probably equities. Perhaps real estate at a low mortgage rate but it's not very diversified. Gold is commonly touted as an inflation hedge, but that's over a much longer time horizon, probably longer than most people are alive. In the end it really depends on the cause of inflation - expect…

Is gold still the inflation hedge? One the one hand yes, but if i.e SpaceX starship is a total success, asteroid mining could be the black swan for that. Though I may be totally wrong (and off by orders of magnitude) about that.

Gold hedges government.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then buy generic. This is one way to fight inflation. Coke will get the message very quickly if their sales start coming down.

If you drink neither and choose water, then it'll really come down. Bonus: you'll feel better

That's heretical & anti-consumerism. Be a good citizen: Drink your sugar water, blow up your healthcare costs, increase money velocity. Broken Window Fallacy for the win!

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#480
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Anyone else feel like this is such a dumb way for the general public to track inflation. Like, a simple line chart with the X axis being time and the Y axis being the price of a basket of goods would be so much clearer

That's why we don't use it.
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