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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#121

RANT: This inflation and coming recession is entirely on the hands of the current leadership in the Fed and Treasury. Their super-low interest rates over the years are coming full circle. We live in a centrally planned economy. My advice to the Fed is to set the Fed Funds Rate to equal inflation! This will stop the wild swings in the economy and keep inflation in check. When the Fed Funds Rate is lower than inflation…

Simple rules don't work with something as complex as the entire economy.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#122

RANT: This inflation and coming recession is entirely on the hands of the current leadership in the Fed and Treasury. Their super-low interest rates over the years are coming full circle. We live in a centrally planned economy. My advice to the Fed is to set the Fed Funds Rate to equal inflation! This will stop the wild swings in the economy and keep inflation in check. When the Fed Funds Rate is lower than inflation…

Yeah....and the inflation we're seeing elsewhere in the world is just a coincidence.

Seeing as every single central bank has similar monetary policy to the US, and almost all governments in Europe and elsewhere injected huge amounts of cheap/free cash into their economies in attempts to counter the economic effects of lockdowns/Covid, it's anything but a coincidence. It's a confirmation that such policies do in fact cause inflation.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#123

Anyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.

Then buy generic. This is one way to fight inflation. Coke will get the message very quickly if their sales start coming down.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#125
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many Americans are illiterate on numbers and the economy too. I still remember the classic example that a burger chain released a 1/3 pound burger to compete with another chain's 1/4 pound burger, and many people thought the 1/4 pound was bigger... Edit: there are some people saying it's a myth, or not a complete picture. Looks like we don't have the data. But my point is that we aren't very good with numbers or econ…

I’ve always thought this was somewhat apocryphal/a myth. Did it actually occur?

It's hard to find contemporaneous evidence, because it was apparently revealed by an internal company focus group, but here's [0] the page from the company themselves with the claim.

It wasn't revealed at all until the founder's memoirs in 2007, and it wasn't reported widely until this [1] 2014 article.

0: https://awrestaurants.com/blog/aw-third-pound-burger-fractio...

1: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/27/magazine/why-do-americans...

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#126
post #69

For those who were wondering if we would officially be in a recession after November 8 elections, the answer is still "no".

GDP grew +2% in Q3, after declining in Q1 and Q2. Gross Domestic Income (similar to GDP but measured differently) grew consistently the entire year. And unemployment rate has declined consistently every single month and stands at 3.57%. I think it would be hard to thread a needle to call any part of YTD 2022 as a recession with this kind of fact pattern. Only if unemployment rate starts to increase in a dramatic way…

I agree with that, but mind you there are two kinds of job numbers. The household survey numbers and the official ones which mysteriously diverge from the survey before elections, but otherwise track nicely. There's some two million jobs that only exist on paper to benefit the incumbent government. This anomaly appears regardless of which party is in power.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will take a quarter, but given the massive layoffs occurring now, the projections of early next year are looking spot on. Inflation is a different problem.

The argument being repeated here on HN wasn't that recession might happen in the future (which would be a true statement); the argument was that we've been in a recession since summer, but due to government propaganda and a media conspiracy, it was swept under the rug (which was false).

Yea just like "COVID" would go away when Biden became president.

You just have to roll your eyes at these people. They're too far gone now.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#128
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many Americans are illiterate on numbers and the economy too. I still remember the classic example that a burger chain released a 1/3 pound burger to compete with another chain's 1/4 pound burger, and many people thought the 1/4 pound was bigger... Edit: there are some people saying it's a myth, or not a complete picture. Looks like we don't have the data. But my point is that we aren't very good with numbers or econ…

I’ve always thought this was somewhat apocryphal/a myth. Did it actually occur?

Sadly, it is true. The chain was A&W:

https://awrestaurants.com/blog/aw-third-pound-burger-fractio...

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#129

The US has it easy, since the inflation was largely caused by lockdown stimulus, and also benefits from being the global reserve currency so it can leverage cheap imports as the interest rate rises increase the value of USD. I wouldn't be surprised if it's better in a few months, especially with the growing protectionism in the anti-inflation act, etc. and acts against Chinese competition, etc. keeping more industry…

I too watch/read Peter Zeihan and think he has some insights, but please don't take it all on face value (industry is probably not coming back to the US in force, and shifts from China will be slow and painful)

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#130
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.

> If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. Conversely, if there was a one-time jump in a particular item, it will take a year before it gets 'removed' from the inflation numbers. Extremely contrived example: if gas/petrol was $1/L in December 2021 (and generally in all of 2021), but $1.20/L in January 2022, then there will be a 20% YoY jump in inflation for the January…

It’s not really skewing anything though, since the price is 20% yoy?
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