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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#91

Post by lottin »

lunaru wrote: post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Year-over-year inflation doesn't tell us anything about whether prices are going up or down right now.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#92

Post by roflyear »

BuyMyBitcoins wrote: post #30
danuker wrote: post #2

Finally the mania is slowing down. It seems the rate hikes and layoffs are working.

I feel like a .2 percentage point drop is near imperceptible and something easily subject to reversal. I don’t think we’re anywhere near an actual slowdown to inflation yet.

That's not what this is at all. It's .2% under expectations. Not a .2% drop. But inflation is steadying which is good.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#93

Post by giantg2 »

germandiago wrote: post #54
lunaru wrote: post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Well explained. Idk for english-speaking countries or your country of origin but the average spanish is an absolute illiterate in economy. These explanations are very necessary so that people develop an intuition of what is going on.

Many Americans are illiterate on numbers and the economy too. I still remember the classic example that a burger chain released a 1/3 pound burger to compete with another chain's 1/4 pound burger, and many people thought the 1/4 pound was bigger...

Edit: there are some people saying it's a myth, or not a complete picture. Looks like we don't have the data. But my point is that we aren't very good with numbers or economics.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fractions-where-i...

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2018/september/how...

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#94

Post by hnburnsy »

Anyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#96

Post by koolba »

ceejayoz wrote: post #65
phpisthebest wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was no Anti-Inflation Act, there was a spending... SPENDING bill they claimed would lower inflation because it also included a very limited amount of deficit reduction which 1 week later they had spent like 3 times on new programs including the Student Loan Cancellation which reversed any inflation reduction the original bill could have had (which was nill in the first place)

How did student loan cancellation reverse inflation reduction when it's on hold due to legal challenges? No one has received a penny.

> No one has received a penny.

The Biden administration mailed student loan checks to people (conveniently set up to arrive just before the most recent midterm): https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/student-loan-re...

The checks are "rebates" for people who paid their student loans during the moratorium. The idea is to reimburse those people and add back their student loan debt so they can claim the maximum $10K / $20K amount of the forgiveness program.

It's hard to argue that's not inflationary.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#97

Post by roflyear »

tharne wrote: post #75
elil17 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a lie, it's just not so simple that you can stop reading after the headline. This very post includes information about category-by-category inflation. Inflation for food has been about 10% YOY. Dairy is 15% and fresh milk is 14.5% (13.2% for whole milk and 15.4% for 0, 1, and 2% milk).

The numbers are a lie, or at the very least, vastly understate the impact. For example, if I used to buy grass-fed beef, but am now buying the grade D crap because prices are so high, that doesn't get captured in the inflation numbers. And there are a whole host of things like that; you'll notice many hotels have scaled back on cleaning frequency but the price of a room hasn't gone done, so you're paying the same for…

Stop eating meat. You don't have to eat meat.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#98

Post by eesmith »

namelessoracle wrote: post #7

Quoted post unavailable.

Your personal numbers are too variable to draw a firm conclusion.

If you live in Louisville, KY, then milk was $3.21 in 2015, $2.29 in 2020, and $2.49 in 2022, per gallon - you would be paying less for milk now than 7 years ago.

While the simple average for the US was $3.80, $3.51, and $4.41 for those years.

That's 12% per year across two years, while the linked-to chart says 13.2% since last year - quite comparable.

FWIW, the most expensive were (2015) Milwaukee, $4.29, (2020) Kansas City, MO, $4.45, and (2022) Kansas City, MO $5.76.

My sources are: "Retail Prices for Whole Milk, Average of Three Outlets, Selected Cities, by Months, 2015" - https://web.archive.org/web/20170211163314/https://www.ams.u... .

Simple average, January 2015, whole milk = $3.80.

Cheapest, $2.62 in Detroit. (When did you pay $2 for milk? I used to pay $0.99/gal but that was in the 1990s.)

2020 numbers at https://web.archive.org/web/20201101142332/https://www.ams.u... :

> October 2020 Highlights: U.S. simple average prices are: $3.51 per gallon for conventional whole milk,

Cheapest, Louisville, KY, $2.29. (in 2015 it was $3.21).

2022 numbers at https://web.archive.org/web/20221109074011/https://www.ams.u...

> October 2022 Highlights: U.S. simple average prices are: $4.41 per gallon for conventional whole milk

Cheapest, Louisville, KY at $2.49.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#99

Post by teh64 »

namelessoracle wrote: post #7

Quoted post unavailable.

So you think they are lies because they do not correspond to your individual anecdotes? I know economics is sometimes derided as a "soft science", but they are a little more rigorous than just "1 person and the stores they are in driving distance of" being used as a barometer for a country of over 300 million people.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#100

Post by OscarCunningham »

redox99 wrote: post #90
Victerius wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the mathematically inclined among us, dp/dt is still positive. It's d^2p/dt^2 that is slightly negative.

Not really. It means CPI_oct22 - CPI_oct21 d^2p/dt^2 isn't necessarily negative.

'Inflation is slower now than it was this time last year.'
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