41–50 of 566 posts
Quoted post unavailable.
There is no possible way to make an inflation number that works for one person, let alone a whole country. The best you can do is have a statistic that you stay with and compare.
Finally the mania is slowing down. It seems the rate hikes and layoffs are working.
Probably too strong of a statement. I don't view this as a huge miss (.2%), and ask anyone you know on a fixed income what this is doing to their retirement. Ulitmately, it's the glut of cash out there (IMHO) that is going to need to resolve itself before inflation gets back to a normal level.
There is no instrument or policy isolating them from it. The best you can do is diversify.
Quoted post unavailable.
Quoted post unavailable.
Quoted post unavailable.
There is no possible way to make an inflation number that works for one person, let alone a whole country. The best you can do is have a statistic that you stay with and compare.
7% inflation with the current basket is meaningless to everyone but economists, but 20% inflation on the major household expenses tells you how much your bills are going to go up in real life.
Inflation in the United States has risen 8.2 percent in the past 12 months. While the Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target is 2 percent, Dalio predicted that the central bank will go for a more realistic target of around 4.5 to 5 percent.
Based on those numbers, he believes the real interest rate could land in between 4.5 percent and 6 percent. “Six starts to break things pretty bad,” Dalio said. “The vicinity of 4.5 and 6 may be the number in terms of cracking the thing.”
[1] - https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b20hpgzhxph5h5...
Quoted post unavailable.
Why is this downvoted ?
Reflexively casting doubt (without a counter-argument) on a number that the BLS has been publishing for decades using a transparent methodology isn’t helpful.
This number isn’t the “how much am I spending on groceries” number, it’s a much larger snapshot of the price levels across multiple industries. Nobody thinks it’s perfect, but it’s consistent.
You might not believe it, but Wall Street moves billions based on it. That’s ultimately the greatest vote of trust. If you think it’s wrong, you can put your money where your mouth is and trade against the consensus. That’s the beauty of the free market.
Quoted post unavailable.
The biggest lie of inflation numbers is that housing costs are explicitly excluded, but rent and mortgage are massive parts of most people's cost of living. Edit: I notice this article actually does include rent (but not the cost of buying a house), but from what I understand, it's usually excluded. Including rent but excluding purchase price is also weird.
It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…