US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achieve because Sept 21 to Oct 21 had a bigger month over month jump.

The right way to interpret this number is that high prices have plateaued a bit. Yes that means your groceries are going to be x% higher than in 2020. Short of deflation, they always will be.

Milk is also traditionally a loss leader for stores. 10 years ago stores were paying $4/gallon for their milk while only charging $2. They made that up by profit on other items you bought at the same time as milk. So if stores are changing this marketing tactic that alone brings milk to a normal price.

The price of milk is very volatile normally. When there is too much or too little rain the price goes up as there is less crops for the cow to eat. When rain is in ideal amounts the input costs go down and so the price of milk goes down. (milk prices are federally regulated so supply and demand do not apply!)

Fast food has had the dollar menus for over a decade, just 2% inflation over a decade means they should be $1.22 now. I can't remember when dollar menus first came out, but I think it was closer to 2 decades ago, which would bring the prices closer to $1.50 just on modest inflation.

There are a lot more factors like the above that make calculating inflation very hard.

But what is considered “safe” really has a lot to do with your timeline. How soon do you want to access the money? If it’s in tears then index funds are likely a good buy today.