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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#261

Quoted post unavailable.

I remember when shadowstats started getting popular. Have you actually looked at their numbers? they're obviously way off, inflation is high for sure but according to their numbers a lot of things are 6-7x the price they were a decade ago and that's clearly not true

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you check Coke's financial statements, you'll see that although revenue has risen quickly, cost of revenue has risen about as fast, leading to relatively unchanged gross profit margins (36% so far in 2022, compared with 40%+ in every year from 1985-2014 and between 33%-39% from 2015 to 2021). Word from industry press is that the rising price of aluminum has been a major driver of the increased costs. I don't know…

Store brands have very little advertising costs, for one. Coke spent $4B on advertising in 2021 [0], which is about a quarter of their costs. [1] [0] - https://statstic.com/coca-cola-advertising-costs/ [1] - https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/KO/cocacola/cost-g...

I guess I must be wrong, but I'll never understand why Coke needs that much advertising. Or anything "that well known". The argument is maybe they are that well known because of advertising, but I just don't think that's the case. Maybe for a crappy product, but not a good product.

With Coke it's the quality (and consistency) of the product. I've never tasted anything "as good" as Coke. A new fresh cold can has a bite that simply nothing else has.

4 billion a year on advertising something everyone knows about...

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#264
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Also it is worth mentioning that part of the major reason accounting for inflation is car price. It’s going down now as chip makers produce more and prices go down further.

I expect the number of car sales in the US to go down significantly like it has in Europe. Interest rates are one major factor, but another is the electric transition. Anecdotally I know quite a few people that aren't buying new vehicles right now. They're the kind of people that buy a new car every 10 years or so, and are delaying their purchase or buying used. They realize it's a bad idea to buy a new gas car but aren't yet ready to buy an electric car because they don't understand them yet, they're too expensive, have a massive backlog, or don't come in the style/variant they want.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CPI up 20% month on month in month 1. CPI down 1% month on month for the remaining 11 months. That would result in what they are saying.

Ah, so not mismatched prices/goods, but mismatched temporally.

Which is still stupid to even be arguing about. It’s like people are trying to find a problem with data that is objectively reported by arguing that if you change the x axis you get an entirely different conclusion. No shit… that’s how data works.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#266

Funny how markets and analysts lose their minds when the numbers don't match exactly the predicted when there are no error bars associated to either the estimate or the value. Coming under or over is a lot different when we're talking +/- 0.05 vs. 0.5... And yes, I tried checking. The Fed does put out their data, but nary a precision factor to be found

My guess is that many of the actors in the market have their own error bounds.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like the 3rd derivative, right? e.g. we now have a slightly lower rate of acceleration towards the cliff than before?

What would the fourth derivative of inflation be? I can’t get my brain to work for that.

Since inflation is a 1st derivative of price, 4th derivative of inflation would actually be a 5th derivative of price. It'd be like: "The increase of the acceleration of the rate of price increase is slowing."

Definitely not a statement that I would be able to visualize :)

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#268

Anyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.

Then buy generic. This is one way to fight inflation. Coke will get the message very quickly if their sales start coming down.

>Coke will get the message

Yes, you the single person going generic will definitely send a message to Coke!

Hey I get your "sending a message" concept. But you also have to be realistic. Coke is almost literally everywhere you could possibly go. A lot of times it's basically the only option aside from a grocery store. It's popularity is so high and it is to be fair a quality product, that you as the individual are never ever going to have anywhere close to a material impact no matter how hard you believe.

Also, most people agree it is objectively the superior product. So while you may save some money, you are also getting a shitter version of something that is already bad for you.

Send a message with your wallet- sure. But don't be so naive that it will actually have an impact for something like Coke. You are honestly just hurting yourself in the taste department to save a negligible amount of money. It's a no-win.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#269
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the last time you looked was last year, then yeah. They went up this year. What’s misleading about reporting yearly percentage increases in prices? I’m baffled.

I don’t think anyone was saying it was misleading, rather they were pointing at a nuance of the data.

> It seems misleading

(from the comment I directly replied to)

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#270

Quoted post unavailable.

Shadowstats has fictional data. This is like earnestly showing the earth is flat by linking to a flat earth web site with fictional data showing the earth is flat.

To be fair, that also describes the official CPI.
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