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Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

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Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#291

Post by lithos »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #39

I'm honestly really, really confused about what the CCP wants or thinks the end game of this policy will be. It's patently obviously with Covid quickly becoming or already endemic in the rest of the world that these outbreaks will continue, and likely grow, in China. So are they using this policy just as a tool to show the control they have? At some point of there is enough damage to the economy and damage to individ…

Protecting the image of the government by never back tracking.

Malicious compliance of people implementing the programs.

Ruining Chi's legacy.

Normalization for a more authoritarian shift.

Fear of losing a tool that prevents movement (IE lockdowns have been pivotal to prevent banking theft protests).

It won't be one thing. And someone posting here won't have the best insights, and access.

Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#292

Post by justnotworthit »

tsol wrote: post #167
lvturner wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't -- they may leave if they show a negative covid test, and one would assume there are testing capabilities on site shortly after the announcement. Last report is that everyone left by 10:30pm [0] Don't get me wrong however, I would not appreciate being stuck in such circumstances for multiple hours. [0] https://www.scmp.com/video/coronavirus/3197996/thousands-stu... (video timestamp: 0:50)

>Last report is that everyone left by 10:30pm [0] That certainly sounds hectic, but this feels like clickbait. Being delayed by a few hours is pretty typical anywhere you may go with unforeseen circumstances.

> Being delayed by a few hours is pretty typical anywhere you may go with unforeseen circumstances.

Being locked inside disneyland is one of those situations you envision?

Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#293

Post by cameldrv »

tinus_hn wrote: post #290
cameldrv wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fantasy is a reality in China. It's not necessary to get to zero cases to have a disease simply not be a major problem, similar to Measles in the U.S. In the general population for Measles R The fantasy with COVID was that you'd get R<1 for a period of time until there was a vaccine, and then the vaccine would do all of the work keeping R<1. Unfortunately the COVID vaccine doesn't do that. Hopefully some day we w…

Well I don’t know what the mainstream theory was in the US but in the Netherlands it was ‘well if due to our lockdowns R is smaller than 1 the disease will just die down’. Which is obviously nonsensical in a pandemic.

If R is lower than 1, the disease will die down. If it's greater than 1 it will flare up (by definition). China has reached a stage where they have essentially eradicated it within China. They still import cases though into areas where R>1. When that happens, they get a flare up, and then they clamp down with massive testing and, if it gets bad enough, lockdowns, until they eradicate it from that area again.

Now at the beginning, one strategy could have been: get R much lower than 1, and push the disease to near eradication, and then dynamically change anti-covid measures so that R approximately equaled 1, which would entail substantial restrictions, but not a Wuhan or Shanghai style lockdown.

The problem is that riding along at exactly R=1 means any time the seasons change, or there's a new variant, or people's behavior changes, you have to constantly adjust restrictions. Generally it has been shown to be impossible in democracies to get enough people to agree to do this, and it's generally not politically possible to enforce this.

Once the vaccines came out, the hope was always that they would dramatically reduce transmission so that R was much less than 1 and we could treat it like measles, and for a while (mid-2021, pre-Delta) that seemed to be the case, but between waning immunity and Omicron, it turned out that the vaccines were not able to reduce transmission to a great enough degree to make this happen.

Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#294

Post by mensetmanusman »

4ggr0 wrote: post #247
mensetmanusman wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to have a very special mask to clean exhaled breath sufficiently to prevent an aerosol virus with such a high R0.

Surgical masks are enough to help prevent the spread of COVID, it's not about 100% safety which is impossible, but saying that they're not good enough does not seem to be true.

It’s about 9% or 90% or 99.9% capture which is the difference in safely being in a room for 2 minutes versus 10 hours.

Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#295

Post by mettamage »

donkeyd wrote: post #207
mettamage wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't care anymore because I've eyeballed that on average 5 people are dying per day (1825 per year) [1], and it doesn't seem to be changing. That's less than flu season (which is more like 3000 to 5000 per year). I don't have sources for the flu. I read it somewhere, I might be underestimating or overestimating a bit. And of course, all those deaths are horrible, and I feel that pain when I contemplate that for a…

> I don't have sources for the flu. Just look at the RIVM site. It's probably higher than you specified, closer to 6-7k average per year, with massive differences. > on average 5 people are dying per day (1825 per year) This is a bit of a dishonest comparison. You're looking at the numbers from before the expected peak, since it's still incredibly warm in the Netherlands right now and peaks seem to happen when it get…

Fair enough, thanks :)

Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#296

Post by ummonk »

sokoloff wrote: post #168
ummonk wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They just can't convince enough of their elderly to take the vaccine, so they have to choose between continuing the lockdowns or letting a large chunk of their elderly population die out of anti-vax stubbornness.

In the trolley problem of deciding between screwing up life for everyone versus having some people die because they chose not to get a vaccine, that doesn’t seem like a close call to me.

Yeah but you and I don't have the same level of filial piety notions towards the elderly as they do.

Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#297

Post by sonyhamster »

andrekandre wrote: post #266
nirimda wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lockdown may be a temporary solution. The long-term solution is to maintain better hygiene (masks, washing hands) and get the vaccine without turning into political drama all over Twitter. Outside of China, how many countries continued a lockdown solution after vaccines became widely available (in that country)? Some countries at least pursued split lockdowns where vaccinated people were completely free.

> after vaccines became widely available i've heard that sinovac vaccine for covid wasnt as effective as mrna ones, and that may be a reason they are still doing lockdowns.. they may not have much of a choice

This is utter bullshit, if you read the data three doses of Sinovac is as effective as mRNA. I live in HK and have been vaccinated with three doses of Sinovac. My wife has been vaccinated with three doses of Pfizer. We caught COVID two weeks ago. My symptoms were a lot milder and tested negative after five days. She caught COVID off me and her symptoms were a lot worse and she only tested negative after 8 days. Annecdotal but I can tell you Sinovac is effective.

Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#298

Post by voxadam »

TedDoesntTalk wrote: post #90
voxadam wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With the addition of a tarp or some thatching from another ride one of the teacups[0] might make a passable yurt.[1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Tea_Party [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yurt

For 10 people out of thousands?

I'll admit, my idea has some minor scalability issues.

Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#299

Post by andrekandre »

sonyhamster wrote: post #297
andrekandre wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> after vaccines became widely available i've heard that sinovac vaccine for covid wasnt as effective as mrna ones, and that may be a reason they are still doing lockdowns.. they may not have much of a choice

This is utter bullshit, if you read the data three doses of Sinovac is as effective as mRNA. I live in HK and have been vaccinated with three doses of Sinovac. My wife has been vaccinated with three doses of Pfizer. We caught COVID two weeks ago. My symptoms were a lot milder and tested negative after five days. She caught COVID off me and her symptoms were a lot worse and she only tested negative after 8 days. Annec…

thanks for the reply

good to hear some info from people there... then i wonder why they are still doing zero-covid lockdowns?

is it hesitation for getting the vaccine? something else?

Re: Shanghai Disney shuts: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test

#300

Post by powerapple »

gwd wrote: post #166
mschuster91 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So how long can China keep up with this zero policy as factories move production elsewhere? The divestment of China has more reasons than just COVID: - Wages in China have risen to a point where other countries have an advantage because unchecked capitalism always optimizes for "inefficiency", and labor costs are an immense factor for these extremely large operations - Western sanctions against China have increased…

> Chinese vaccines are absolute trash compared to Western vaccines, but Xi Jinping can't really backtrack on his decision to only use domestic vaccines because that would imply he, the half-god, has made an error in judgement. The Chinese vaccine was the first vaccine out; and in particular the mRNA vaccine technology was new and unproven. There would be no shame in saying, "We can be proud that Sinovac was the first…

People are stating things imagined by themselves as facts. My imaginary fact is that: China was hoping to have new vaccines for new variants, constantly collecting data, and preparing for ease up of the restrictions.
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