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Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

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Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#111

Post by asdajksah2123 »

vagrantJin wrote: post #91
asdajksah2123 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas I don't think it was evident that individuals and businesses would be willing to make some of these changes they have. For example, German companies are planning on shutting down factories for the winter. Cities are planning on ending night lighting. In addition, winter so far has been fairly warm. It may still turn cold, so…

> If someone had predicted Europe would have the LNG supply they do today at the beginning of the war they would have been dismissed as a utopist. Not really. It was always a matter of cost. Losing 30% of gas supply is no laughing matter - and the shock will naturally push governments to willingness to pay above premium prices to stabilize supply.

Europe can't just "pay above premium prices" to replace Russian gas. It would have been physically impossible to replace the Russian gas (and it still is physically impossible to fully replace Russian gas within 2022) without creating a tremendous amount of infrastructure around getting LNG, which European countries have been incredibly successful at doing so.

The progress they've made in creating that infrastructure is beyond what basically anyone would have predicted at the start of the war.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#112

Post by ralphmelish »

Okkef wrote: post #88
ralphmelish wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't change during they day, it only changes when the government approves price increases. I guess variable means a different thing in the UK. Do you have peak and off-peak prices?

That's not how it works in the Netherlands

That's why I asked. Thank you for your detailed explanation.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#113

Post by kube-system »

throwaway4aday wrote: post #104
dr_faustus wrote: post #31

I really don't understand the doom and gloom wrt next year. What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas. In Germany, consumers are using 25% less gas even if you account for the weather. So with increased supply from Netherlands and Norway, even a limited amount of LNG will probably be enough to fill the storage again and compensate the missing Russian gas (which account…

> a bearable (albeit not overly comfortable) 19 degrees celsius Interesting to see what temp other people keep their homes at. Our normal indoor temp is 19 and I sometimes find that too warm.

I like mine at 23-24 in the winter, although the 'default' in the US is usually 20-22

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#114

Post by ralphmelish »

iso1631 wrote: post #99
ralphmelish wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't change during they day, it only changes when the government approves price increases. I guess variable means a different thing in the UK. Do you have peak and off-peak prices?

Before the last 12 months, Octopus had an agile price where the price you pay the rate depending on different time of the day. Sometimes this would be high (25p+), sometimes it would only be a couple of pence. Sometimes it was negative. https://agileprices.co.uk/ shows the price for a given region. For example back on October 1st you'd actually be paid to charge your battery -- Because of the government's meddling in…

That's quite interesting. Prices seem quite cheap compared to what I'm paying right now. Too bad they are not taking new customers.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#115

Post by FerociousTimes »

tpm wrote: post #98
FerociousTimes wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you live?

Slovakia, we didn't start heating yet, a few years ago that would be unthinkable. Looking at the forecast, we won't be heating for at least another 10 days.

Which is good, isn't it?

At least the energy crisis has been averted for the first month of the autumn season in Europe and the outlook looks promising going into the second month esp for households in light of rising costs and soaring inflation.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#116

Post by kube-system »

bo0tzz wrote: post #65
xapata wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if the electric heaters aren't producing the same amount of heat. The comment suggested they've reduced heat consumption.

Producing that amount of heat with gas would still be better than using electricity.

You might think it's impossible to beat a modern 98% efficient gas furnace, but electric heat pumps can have effective efficiencies greater than 100%. (sometimes 200% or 300%!) They can do this because they "steal" heat energy from outside (yes, even in the cold winter air)

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#118

Post by blablabla123 »

michpoch wrote: post #76
asdajksah2123 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas I don't think it was evident that individuals and businesses would be willing to make some of these changes they have. For example, German companies are planning on shutting down factories for the winter. Cities are planning on ending night lighting. In addition, winter so far has been fairly warm. It may still turn cold, so…

> In addition, winter so far has been fairly warm. It's Autumn. Winter starts on the 21st Dec. October in most of the Europe is not that much of a heating season, November will make us start digging into the gas we prepared. It's way too early for early to judge how easy it'll be.

That's true but I think the normal reaction is when it feels cold to turn up the heater and not waste a thought about getting wool blankets to sleep for instance. Also I never used indoor thermometers until very recently.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#119

Post by dom96 »

throwaway4aday wrote: post #104
dr_faustus wrote: post #31

I really don't understand the doom and gloom wrt next year. What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas. In Germany, consumers are using 25% less gas even if you account for the weather. So with increased supply from Netherlands and Norway, even a limited amount of LNG will probably be enough to fill the storage again and compensate the missing Russian gas (which account…

> a bearable (albeit not overly comfortable) 19 degrees celsius Interesting to see what temp other people keep their homes at. Our normal indoor temp is 19 and I sometimes find that too warm.

Temperature isn't the full story, what you really want is the combination of temperature and humidity, i.e. the heat index.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#120

Post by avianlyric »

sorokod wrote: post #105
jefftk wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The standard "smooth out the fluctuations" approach gives an extremely low probability of running out of fuel during the winter at a reasonable cost, but only assuming sufficient fuel imports. Because of the loss of Russian gas and not having sufficient LNG infrastructure to make up it, Europe will burn gas faster than replacement when it's sufficiently cold, and if the cold weather lasts long enough they could run o…

Given the disrupted gas supply, what alternatives are there to the "expensive and wasteful strategy" ?

Just because you’ve got no other option’s doesn’t mean a strategy isn’t “expensive and wasteful”. It just means you’re desperate, so you’ll happily eat the cost.

But long term I would expect Europe to use a much less expensive and wasteful strategy. But obviously it takes time to build and deploy alternatives.

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