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Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

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Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#91

Post by vagrantJin »

asdajksah2123 wrote: post #55
dr_faustus wrote: post #31

I really don't understand the doom and gloom wrt next year. What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas. In Germany, consumers are using 25% less gas even if you account for the weather. So with increased supply from Netherlands and Norway, even a limited amount of LNG will probably be enough to fill the storage again and compensate the missing Russian gas (which account…

> What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas I don't think it was evident that individuals and businesses would be willing to make some of these changes they have. For example, German companies are planning on shutting down factories for the winter. Cities are planning on ending night lighting. In addition, winter so far has been fairly warm. It may still turn cold, so…

> If someone had predicted Europe would have the LNG supply they do today at the beginning of the war they would have been dismissed as a utopist.

Not really. It was always a matter of cost. Losing 30% of gas supply is no laughing matter - and the shock will naturally push governments to willingness to pay above premium prices to stabilize supply.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#92

Post by hedora »

bo0tzz wrote: post #65
xapata wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if the electric heaters aren't producing the same amount of heat. The comment suggested they've reduced heat consumption.

Producing that amount of heat with gas would still be better than using electricity.

If they were heating the same area, then they'd have probably replaced their furnace. Europeans have been buying record numbers of air to air heat pumps this year. Even with transmission and conversion losses, their coefficient of power is high enough to use less natural gas than directly burning it would.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#94

Post by tuukkah »

leobg wrote: post #87
tuukkah wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Helsinki, Finland, we pay 4 cents/kWh to the local grid company. Then on top of that, everyone has a contract with an electricity supplier of their choosing, and mine charges 0.9 ¢/kWh on top of the hourly spot price. (My previous supplier charged a fixed price and went bankrupt due to the current crisis.) The spot price in Finland is somewhat linked to the prices of the neighbouring Sweden, Norway and Estonia. Re…

So can I run a line to your house, please?

It might be more practical to invest in solar and wind. I hear solar can be profitable even here in the north.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#95

Post by danielmarkbruce »

sorokod wrote: post #58
jefftk wrote: post #5

Normally you run storage facilities neither all the way full nor all the way empty: you want to be able to smooth out fluctuations in supply and demand. Because of the war Europe is running gas storage near its upper limit, which means we should expect less flexibility and more price volatility: they won't want to draw them way down if we get a serious cold snap, and they have nowhere to put extra gas if it's warmer…

>you want to be able to smooth out fluctuations in supply and demand. Can you say a bit more about the "you" mentioned? I can imagine "you"s who care only about having heating during wintertime.

This is a good question, I don't understand the downvotes or the responses (1 exception). Gas is delivered to customers via a whole system of players, each who have different motivations and incentives. How you arrive at the current state of "more gas in storage than otherwise" is, at least on the surface, an interesting question when one considers that complexity.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#96

Post by morgelgluff »

KingOfCoders wrote: post #30
FerociousTimes wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you live?

Same here, northern Germany, it has been unusual warm, we haven't started to heat this year yet because of it (though I might not be impacted as hard later also as the city is producing biogas and is using PtH).

Strikingly warm in Sweden as well. Geothermal heat pump does work a few hours per day, anyway. It drops far below 10 degrees celsius at night and my house is not modern enough to manage comfortable temperature with only waste energy as source.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#97

Post by hef19898 »

jandrese wrote: post #89
hef19898 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily, LNG ships can simply be parked at sea until prices rise again, same for oil tankers. Pipelines going into almost full storage don't have that luxury.

It costs money every day to leave the ships parked and idle, but in some ways it is a good thing. Those ships are basically extra storage in the event of a long cold winter that stresses the natural gas supply harder than expected. They offer flexibility to deal with pipeline shortages.

The costs of having those tankers parked is orders of magnitude less then the value of their cargo and potential profits.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#98

Post by tpm »

FerociousTimes wrote: post #18
ndlzk wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fact It’s unseasonably hot currently. Nobody is using heaters at all I suspect.

Where do you live?

Slovakia, we didn't start heating yet, a few years ago that would be unthinkable. Looking at the forecast, we won't be heating for at least another 10 days.

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#99

Post by iso1631 »

ralphmelish wrote: post #39
iso1631 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How variable -- how many times a day does your price per kwh change?

It doesn't change during they day, it only changes when the government approves price increases. I guess variable means a different thing in the UK. Do you have peak and off-peak prices?

Before the last 12 months, Octopus had an agile price where the price you pay the rate depending on different time of the day. Sometimes this would be high (25p+), sometimes it would only be a couple of pence. Sometimes it was negative.

https://agileprices.co.uk/ shows the price for a given region. For example back on October 1st you'd actually be paid to charge your battery --

Because of the government's meddling in the market it's no longer available for new customers, so if you have the resources or ability to smooth your load, it's meaningless, you can simply claim your massive subsidy from the government and recharge your 80kWh car battery at peak time for 35p // £28, with the taxpayer picking up the extra £52.

But in a free market you'd charge at low demand times (say overnight when you could have been paying 10p/unit) and either use it, or possibly sell it back, at high peak times (that 80p/unit)

(I'm not sure how feed in tarrifs worked with Octopus, but a system which would reduce the load on the grid has been scuppered by the government with the inexplicable energy policy)

Re: Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero

#100

Post by [deleted] »

jacobolus wrote: post #71
speedylight wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that by holding onto so much gas that there’s less in active circulation therefore it leads price increases?

He is saying having less available slack increases volatility: It led to a recent price drop because when gas usage was lower than expected there was nowhere to store the excess supply as would usually be done. It will lead to a price rise if usage is higher than expected because they won’t want to risk depleting stores too much.

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