81–90 of 197 posts
I really don't understand the doom and gloom wrt next year. What was obviously completely underestimated was the elasticity of consumer demand for gas. In Germany, consumers are using 25% less gas even if you account for the weather. So with increased supply from Netherlands and Norway, even a limited amount of LNG will probably be enough to fill the storage again and compensate the missing Russian gas (which account…
This is a better situation than the reverse. It’s fortunate the winter has been mild so far. Will be interesting if the LNG industry can keep pace and replace Russia for good.
Not to nitpick and assuming you're living in the northern hemisphere, winter has not officially arrived; we're still in the fall/autumn season.
"Winter so far has been mild" is not a confusion on their part that it won't get any colder, just a misstatement. Autumn has been unseasonably warm, and the difference in parts of Europe between the two isn't as severe as here in the US.
Rising temperatures should reduce demand for fossil fuels as a heating source (I think). Does anyone know if this is already factored into global warming predictions?
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Copying my answer from another comment: The spot price is about supply and demand over an extremely short time period and has dipped below zero because at the moment gas storage in europe is very full, so if you've got a load of natural gas to sell no one is buying because there's nowhere to put it. This is probably related to unseasonably warm temperatures in Europe at the moment, so people are using less gas than e…
Also, gas providers filled up storage and secured volumes at high prices. Even if they now buy for way less, customer prices will be an average (at least, depending on exactly how providers calculate costs and thus prices) of those two. So until the old inventory is consumed, consumer gas prices won't move a lot. Overall, this is good. As a consumer you want stable prices and not depend on spot and future markets flu…
It's the same thing that happened to toilet paper back in early 2020.
I only hope this accelerates the transition to renewable energy sources in Europe.
It's the same with electricity markets: at times there's so much wind and nuclear power that the spot price goes below zero in Europe as well as in the US: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266679242... I still pay around 5 cents/kWh to the middlemen though so consumption hasn't been profitable to me so far.
Where are you based if you are paying five cents? Here in Germany, I pay 10 times that much.
The spot price in Finland is somewhat linked to the prices of the neighbouring Sweden, Norway and Estonia. Recently, it has varied with -0.1 and 93 ¢/kWh as the extremes and the average around 15 ¢/kWh (night-time lows included).
This is a temporary problem and does not mean the natgas issues are solved for the winter.
There was a similar issue with oil storage in April 2020[1]
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/business/oil-prices.html
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Where are you based if you are paying five cents? Here in Germany, I pay 10 times that much.
In Helsinki, Finland, we pay 4 cents/kWh to the local grid company. Then on top of that, everyone has a contract with an electricity supplier of their choosing, and mine charges 0.9 ¢/kWh on top of the hourly spot price. (My previous supplier charged a fixed price and went bankrupt due to the current crisis.) The spot price in Finland is somewhat linked to the prices of the neighbouring Sweden, Norway and Estonia. Re…
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How variable -- how many times a day does your price per kwh change?
It doesn't change during they day, it only changes when the government approves price increases. I guess variable means a different thing in the UK. Do you have peak and off-peak prices?
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The $2 Bln quote could be historical but in real time live spot prices at the present, the rates cratered momentarily to zero or even negative territories.
Luckily, LNG ships can simply be parked at sea until prices rise again, same for oil tankers. Pipelines going into almost full storage don't have that luxury.
This is a better situation than the reverse. It’s fortunate the winter has been mild so far. Will be interesting if the LNG industry can keep pace and replace Russia for good.
>LNG industry can keep pace and replace Russia for good. Nobody can replace Russia and their resources in the long-term.