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AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

chatterhead.bearblog.dev

271–280 of 379 posts

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#271
post #230
post #219

I worked for a large grocery store chain between 2004 and 2010, there the AI had already taken over. Though we didn't call it an AI, just 'the system'. The system was able to procure goods with stunning accuracy. Sometimes it even surprised us. For example: we'd receive a much higher number of BBQ meat than typical, only to realise it was going to be amazing weather the coming days. The system was also making schedul…

That sounds like truly valuable ERP, and largely devoid of AI.

> That sounds like truly valuable ERP, and largely devoid of AI.

Yes. That was kinda my point. Most of the time, it is just a good piece of software, not an 'AI'. In fact, for most situations you do not want an AI, because you want to the software to behave predictably.

My point being is: good software has been replacing need for humans to manage processes for a long time now.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#272
It’s for this reason alone that bureaucracy can not be reduced or its processes streamlined in the foreseeable future. It doesn’t even need AI, just digital services. The bureaucrat will fight tooth and nail for the status quo to remain in place and prevent technical updates whenever possible. More efficiency means facing the pointlessness of one’s job. Exhibit A: Germany.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#274

What does chess have in common with retail middle management? As someone who has managed a retail store and played chess, I can confidently answer: nothing. Remember when Watson beat Ken Jennings at Jeopardy? And then IBM saturated the airwaves with ads about how Watson was going to revolutionize industries like energy and health care? Notice how we don’t see those ads anymore? It’s because winning Jeopardy has nothi…

Regardless of how the marketing people try and sell the stuff, there are a ton of paper pushing tasks that would benefit from "search engine autocomplete" quality of AI. AI isn't going to replace humans like a switch flip. Like every other automation technology it will just make them more efficient at their duties (for better or worse) resulting in less warm body hours for a given productivity output. What this means is that your average McDicks GM will go from managing two locations @50hr/wk to 2.5 locations at 50hr/wk

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#275

I bought a kitchen table at Amazon. Now the recommendation engine recommends more kitchen tables and that is going on for half a year now. As long as that is the state of the art, I am not afraid that AI will replace my job, which requires some out of the box thinking.

Wrong. The recommendation engine is working correctly, and people who bought a kitchen table are more likely to buy another one compared to buying a completely unrelated item.

Maybe I don't know enough about recommendation systems, but surely not? If I buy a kitchen table, in my demographic (mid-20s in rented accommodation) it's because I moved into a new flat, or my existing table broke. In either case, buying a new table actually marks the start of a long period where I won't be buying any new tables, and every day from then onwards I'm slightly more likely to buy a table.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#276
post #271
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds like truly valuable ERP, and largely devoid of AI.

> That sounds like truly valuable ERP, and largely devoid of AI. Yes. That was kinda my point. Most of the time, it is just a good piece of software, not an 'AI'. In fact, for most situations you do not want an AI, because you want to the software to behave predictably. My point being is: good software has been replacing need for humans to manage processes for a long time now.

"In fact, for most situations you do not want an AI, because you want to the software to behave predictably" is very good statement that very very often is skipped from discussion. Thank you.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So from your writing I can extract: profit is bad and incentives to work are bad, no matter the improvement on the service or if people do it bc they found it an option? If you consider a job as exploitation, in the free world you can find another job, right? That is what I do: I will not work in what I think it is bad. But in my case at least that job should be very bad by all measures, bc there is no worst thing fo…

the boss makes more off your work than you do, that's what people mean by exploitation when they're talking about work.

I know what they mean, and it is an incorrect assessment with a great bias towards their own interests.

The boss is another role. You can be a boss. Why not?

Ah, it entails risks also: paying bills, managing, taking decisions, risk of going bankrupt... so when most people talk about expoitation they do not talk about the other side of things so that their complaints look legit.

Also, working in an already setup environment usually multiplies your productivity. But if it is not the case, then the natural consequence is that copying the business model and starting to compete should be an easy alternative. If people complain and do not do it, there are more reasons they are not talking about.

For sure there will be bad bosses, and bad employees, do not misunderstand this.

But if it is so bad and exploited you have other options: become the boss, switch job. If you do not want either of those, you should wonder why, not starting to insult people who give you the possibility to improve your life conditions or survive. Out of mutual interest, of course. Not bc they are saints.

It is very funny when I see people talking about how they are exploited by others and instead of finding an alternative, like taking the risk to invest their accumulated wealth, they just come with this discourse.

Remember that if you are an employee you can just switch jobs also, you can do something else, you can try to build something your own. What you cannot do is go with that discourse assuming the other part does not pay any cost: for example, when there is an investment, you have to spend a bunch of money for something that is likely (most business do) to fail, putting your money in advance. The people who work just work, leave and find something else.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>“Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM” On the flip side, the companies that embodied this ethos were disrupted out of existence over the course of decades, to the point where IBM ran out of customers and sold off their declining hardware business. Any damage this does in the short-term will self correct in 30 years.

Sure, but if you measure 30 years, let’s say starting at 20 for a young adult - that all the way until they are 50 they will have to deal with this. We as a society are basically saying at least one generation of people are a lost generation. Like all the people that slaved during Industrialization without workers protection or quality of life fixes, or all the millions that died in WW1/2 because we couldn’t understa…

I don't know for the US worker, they seems to be able to take any abuse and ask for more free market in their ass. But that stuff would not fly in places where workers have some leverage and can influence policies. ( Or let's be more real : influence policies roll-out and eventually stopping them for a few years )

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you need to reverse the "Reply" so it's "Reply to accept". Anyway the issue with having an AI or just a regular old program doing things like that is that it will insist on following the rules. So you end up with tricky issues where the system WILL NOT revise the schedule 2 days in advance, because workers are required 7 days notice for instance. Or it can not fill a shift, because there are no one left it ca…

Which field is that? I thought healthcare but it must not be it because you said there was only one person at the evening shift.

Technically not healthcare, but close: Pharmacy. That being said, my sisters a nurse and she's frequently the only one for a ward during the nightshifts. In case of emergencies she'd need to call on staff from other wards.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#280
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> bottom->up by ensuring workers enter data to be reported on correctly Isn't this were management fails? Gathering the data that is required to decide well? Eg my SOs company recently introduced the third generation of company wide management software, but as before nobody really used it and all important information is still collected in spreadsheets. "AI management" could start out like Google Assistant, just have…

> Imaging two coworkers standing in the company floor: - "so about feature X?" - "arg ... yep ... I'll get it done by next week" - "Computer!?" - - "Create a reminder for [Coworker] to finish feature X by next week" - More like: " - "Computer!?" - - "Create a reminder for [Coworker] to finish feature X by next week" - - "No! Stop!" This is roughly my experience with current "smart assistants"

Hmm no ... "Works for me" ... Google Assistant has been incredibly correct in what it recognizes.

Just to prove my point I will dictate this paragraph an expect Google assistant will transcribe it perfectly.

Nja... Not perfect ... but really close.

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