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AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

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Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#261

Post by TheLoafOfBread »

fho wrote: post #196
quirkot wrote: post #21

I think this article fundamentally misunderstands the core function of middle management. You can boil it down to 2 key tasks (on the front lines of a very large organization). a) Interpreting: either top->down by explaining and enforcing corporate policy on hourly workers or bottom->up by ensuring workers enter data to be reported on correctly b) "Encouraging": an employee calls in sick, again. Neither firing them o…

> bottom->up by ensuring workers enter data to be reported on correctly Isn't this were management fails? Gathering the data that is required to decide well? Eg my SOs company recently introduced the third generation of company wide management software, but as before nobody really used it and all important information is still collected in spreadsheets. "AI management" could start out like Google Assistant, just have…

> Imaging two coworkers standing in the company floor: - "so about feature X?" - "arg ... yep ... I'll get it done by next week" - "Computer!?" - - "Create a reminder for [Coworker] to finish feature X by next week" -

More like: " - "Computer!?" - - "Create a reminder for [Coworker] to finish feature X by next week" - - "No! Stop!"

This is roughly my experience with current "smart assistants"

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#262

Post by Volrath89 »

mrweasel wrote: post #216
firefoxd wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watson was a stunt. It's not very hard for someone on HN to figure out how much of Watson was Watson. The crowd still bought it. But as someone who worked on software that handled the last example you gave, I assure, a few well placed if and elses do the trick. Also, humans have tendency to follow any instructions sent to them when it is titled "System" or "Administration". *System Message:* New revised schedule for.…

I think you need to reverse the "Reply" so it's "Reply to accept". Anyway the issue with having an AI or just a regular old program doing things like that is that it will insist on following the rules. So you end up with tricky issues where the system WILL NOT revise the schedule 2 days in advance, because workers are required 7 days notice for instance. Or it can not fill a shift, because there are no one left it ca…

Which field is that? I thought healthcare but it must not be it because you said there was only one person at the evening shift.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#263

Post by pydry »

notahacker wrote: post #163
pydry wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Neither of these are low hanging fruit for automation The Uber app already does both of these things. Encouragement is done via gamification and adjusting pricing and the app itself collects all the data it needs and explains everything the driver needs to know.

Ah yes, the Uber app. Because all work is as simple and collaborative as going to a particular point to pick up a passenger, everybody dreams of working for a worker-friendly organization like Uber.

Certainly it cant be applied as effectively to every domain but it's already spreading.

In some domains I'll bet it will mean that middle managers will simply have the tools to be able to effectively manage 60 instead of 10 workers. In others perhaps it wont change much. In others like taxis the middle manager will be made entirely redundant.

I dont think it's necessarily a good thing either but that doesnt mean it's not going to happen.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#264

Post by makeitdouble »

cgrealy wrote: post #197
makeitdouble wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The limit on sick days only matters for payroll decisions (what bucket will the day off fit in, paid leave or unpaid leave?). IME that's handled directly by the employee most of the time when they request the day off in the system. The manager gets involved at performance evaluation time, or if it has severe otherwise impacts (you're then asking the person to potentially leave), but I don't see the "figure out a solu…

It’s not just about “asking someone to be less sick”, you need to ascertain if there are other factors: are they over worked? is there a serious condition that you might need to support? Or conversely, is the sick leave legitimate? Some employees do abuse sick leave. Either way, a good manager can work with the employee to get a good outcome for both parties.

I completely agree with you on the overworked part, though it's a delicate situation if you're their direct manager and have to rely on them to report how much work they are doing. It happens (a lot more than we're willing to accept I think), and it becomes more a discussion on management than on the employee per se.

On the other parts, it might be a cultural difference: I'd expect all of those to be handled by HR.

For instance, specific work time adjustments, additional rest time due to a physical or psychological condition, family issues etc. are delicate and potentially private matter that go beyond the manager's supervision. The manager needs to be notified of the resulting discussions, but I wouldn't expect them to get all the details directly from the employee for instance.

That's also where the abuse of sick leave becomes a delicate issue to address at the manager level: companies have policies on how you justify the sick leave (doctor notes, medical bills etc.) or they let it open to the employee's judgement call. The former is clear cut, and abusing it means faking papers, so it's straight in HR territory. The later is more tricky, but I'd hate to be in a position where I have to hear the employee's story and decide if it's fake or not, potentially putting a the target on my back if the employee gets punished for actual issues I underestimated. It feels like a real shitty position to be in, I'd probably not bother confronting the employee except if they have literally dozens of sick leave days available.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#265

Post by quitit »

snowwrestler wrote: post #39

What does chess have in common with retail middle management? As someone who has managed a retail store and played chess, I can confidently answer: nothing. Remember when Watson beat Ken Jennings at Jeopardy? And then IBM saturated the airwaves with ads about how Watson was going to revolutionize industries like energy and health care? Notice how we don’t see those ads anymore? It’s because winning Jeopardy has nothi…

It'll just chip away at the roles, it's not realistic to replace them for the reasons you've listed. However the point being made is that the expensive jobs are a more attractive target.

That said I think AI/automation will still be involved, instead I imagine it'll be like what we already see with support/call centers:

All the routine easy to manage items get sent to automation, while the complicated issues actually go through to a human.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#266

Post by LeanderK »

I think this post is simplistic. Chess does not have anything to do with what most middle-managers do and I don't see AI manage humans with more depth, it has to become sentient first essentially. I think for AI to replace most middle managers it has to get really smart, understand problems instantly and assess their consequences. This is something we can't do and I think we will rather see better robots first since their environment is more constrained.

But for "humans as resources" we are already seeing this. If the task is repetitive, clearly defined then we have something like gig-economy where some middle managers are absent. Nobody dispatches uber-drivers, it's all automated.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#267

Post by jesuscript »

Volrath89 wrote: post #262
mrweasel wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you need to reverse the "Reply" so it's "Reply to accept". Anyway the issue with having an AI or just a regular old program doing things like that is that it will insist on following the rules. So you end up with tricky issues where the system WILL NOT revise the schedule 2 days in advance, because workers are required 7 days notice for instance. Or it can not fill a shift, because there are no one left it ca…

Which field is that? I thought healthcare but it must not be it because you said there was only one person at the evening shift.

Can still possibly be healthcare. Even on a floor with 20+ patients, you only need one RN and one CNA on the floor (I’ve seen skeleton crews like that).

Those facilities didn’t even stock up on face masks before Covid, so believe me when I say they know how to run a tight budget.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#268

Post by WastingMyTime89 »

jesuscript wrote: post #191
snowwrestler wrote: post #39

What does chess have in common with retail middle management? As someone who has managed a retail store and played chess, I can confidently answer: nothing. Remember when Watson beat Ken Jennings at Jeopardy? And then IBM saturated the airwaves with ads about how Watson was going to revolutionize industries like energy and health care? Notice how we don’t see those ads anymore? It’s because winning Jeopardy has nothi…

How’s AI going to do that better than a fellow human? It will create metrics that will formalize a new paradigm. You know that arbitrary number in your bank account that defines you, that number on your report card, that rating on an Amazon review, that number that’s defining global inflation, that metric that measures interest rate, that number of hours you work … The fucking lines of code, number of commits, points…

I’m always amused by these takes because they are implicitly submissive. It only makes sense if you posit the world as some kind of omnipotent power structure imposing things on an other powerless strata. I think Americans are drawn to these ideas because they have a somewhat individualistic culture.

Meanwhile society is fundamentally built on exchange and community. Strictly antisocial structures like the one you described are doomed to fail because if you set aside the majority, you become a minority trend.

That’s in a way the paradox at the heart of modern capitalism. A system which alienates everyone expect a few is a dead system.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#269

Post by goodpoint »

AndyPa32 wrote: post #223

I bought a kitchen table at Amazon. Now the recommendation engine recommends more kitchen tables and that is going on for half a year now. As long as that is the state of the art, I am not afraid that AI will replace my job, which requires some out of the box thinking.

Wrong. The recommendation engine is working correctly, and people who bought a kitchen table are more likely to buy another one compared to buying a completely unrelated item.

Re: AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

#270

Post by goodpoint »

heavyset_go wrote: post #78

It's like we've learned nothing from the techno-optimist claim that work automation will give workers more free time to pursue their own desires. In theory, it might be able to at some point. However, in reality, the claim ignores the power structures that the automation/AI/tech doesn't dissolve, but only reinforces. Some people want to lord over other people, AI isn't going to make that go away without changing the…

Criticizing technooptimism on HN is a lost cause unfortunately.
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