AI will replace middle management before robots replace hourly workers

I don’t know what problem you were solving, but irony is that optimal constraint based scheduling is an NP hard problem, that is usually solved using heuristics that an AI could actually do a very good job at.

…so no, a few if and else statements will not cut it, in any sense compared to a competent manager.

…but plausibly yes, some kind of ML system could replace that part of the job.

(:

Problems are harder than they look; the whole point is that managers exist because those problems are hard, and they exist now because current approaches (a few if statements is obviously irrelevant, but specifically constraint solvers) to solving them a) take too long to run, b) are too difficult to express dynamically changing problems in and c) lack the “human touch” of favouritism that managers use to doll out rewards and punishments by giving good and bad shifts.

…but, quite plausibly, that work could now be done by a model that takes human speech input and translates it into input for a constraint solver, or even implements a novel constraint solver.

There is novel stuff now, that really does make a difference for this kind of specific domain problem.

It won’t get rid of a shop manager, but it’ll probably make their life easier and mean they can drop having an assistant manager.

> How’s AI going to do that better than a fellow human?

I think the article argues that AI is more likely to be better than a human at replacing certain management problems, than at doing other classes of labor.

I don't think the article argues that AI is better than humans, just that it's possible/likely to be better at humans at middle management tasks before other tasks.

Unsure if I buy the argument, but it is indeed a cool hypothesis to explore. Cool premise to build upon and think of how the world would look like if it comes true (second half of the article).

It's already happening.

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-robots-are-c...

https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2020.381...

"As a new general-purpose technology, robots have the potential to radically transform employment and organizations. In contrast to prior studies that predict dramatic employment declines, we find that investments in robotics are associated with increases in total firm employment but decreases in the total number of managers. Similarly, we find that robots are associated with an increase in the span of control for supervisors remaining within the organization."

"How's AI going to do that better than a fellow human?"

Not better but cheaper.

"Better" is just marketing.

I worked for a large grocery store chain between 2004 and 2010, there the AI had already taken over. Though we didn't call it an AI, just 'the system'.

The system was able to procure goods with stunning accuracy. Sometimes it even surprised us. For example: we'd receive a much higher number of BBQ meat than typical, only to realise it was going to be amazing weather the coming days.

The system was also making schedules for the re-stocking team with the same accuracy. It knew what it ordered, the exact time the truck was due to arrive, at which time the personnel was available (not at school, for example), etc. The system told us when to show up, and when we had to be finished.

The system was even able to pinpoint cashiers that were stealing money from the register, by correlating cash count of the individual registers to the schedule (which the AI also created). It would then 'isolate' the suspected employee to a single register and order a cash count (which was done by hand) at the end of the day.

Basically the only reason why there still was a manager was for responsibility and babysitting (most employees were teens that did dumb stuff). And the occasional Karen who wanted to talk to a manager.

I remember being being thoroughly impressed with the efficiency of the software back then. In some ways it must have influenced my career path (I now work in automating businesses). I left in 2010, I can only imagine how much more advanced this system has become since.