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The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

adamtooze.substack.com

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Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#171

Post by groby_b »

conductr wrote: post #164
groby_b wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is the (#2/#3/#4 depending on study) leading cause of death. We're currently at around ~150K dead/year - about 5 times the average rate of flu, about 3 times a really bad flu year. It has significantly affected workforce participation, with a large disability burden. You'd notice. Unless you're somewhat dense.

Not that I like it but, I happen to think it's just a new normal as well and if everyone starts behaving as if it's normal then the impact on global economics when compared to a similar period should be rather normal. Continuing lockdowns and other things that impact supply chains/production are examples of behaving like it's not normal. They will likely continue to some degree despite my opinions.

Neither deaths nor disability can be wished away by "just behaving as if it's normal".

As for "continuing lockdowns" - most of the western world hasn't had a single actual lockdown. So let's not pretend that's the issue, or a desired approach to the problem.

What is needed is

- data transparency, instead of reduced data collection.

- targeted measures, instead of blanket measures. Utilizing the above data, and focusing on leading indicators, not trailing ones.

- a medical system that actually makes the tools we have available, as opposed to undermining them and pricing them out of range.

- a focus on ventilation.

- a normalization of mask wearing in public indoor settings.

None of those are close to "lockdowns". That's a strawman nobody is asking for.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#172

Post by chernevik »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #161
JPKab wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great book. I used to work in the Pentagon, and while we never took Zeihan's talks without a grain of salt, directionally he tends to be very accurate. Nations like China which lack a culture of immigration have extremely predictable demographic booms and busts, and Zeihan is spot on with those. He also hits on the reality of how dependent most nations, especially China, are on imports that pass through oceanic shipp…

To be fair the us navy hasn't completely detached in the way that he expects... Yet. Shipping harassment hasn't appreciably gone up... Yet. It's also possible that cargo ships will arm themselves against pirates, which will increase the cost of shipping but maybe not as much as the most dire predictions.

I suspect the point of "oceanic shipping lanes they have no ability to control or secure without the US Navy" is "shipping lanes they cannot secure FROM the US Navy".

There is no way for a cargo ship to arm itself against submarines.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#173

Post by UncleOxidant »

Bombthecat wrote: post #162
UncleOxidant wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure we want to (or intend to) eat Europe's lunch - we'd like a fairly strong Europe. But yeah, for now Europe's lunch will be eaten.

Europe missed the train and train doesn't reverse when missing the station.. Energy and infrastructure are the venes of Europe which clocked and overstretched to the max. Something will need to give and it already begins by small bakeries closing and more to follow.. It wont end well. I don't believe we will have any growth in Europe for the next 3 years. Who is going to invest in Europe if energy is literally unpred…

Yeah, bakeries are energy intensive. Methane generation from sewage would be one way to (relatively quickly^) replace some of the natural gas that was coming from Russia. And as a side benefit fertilizer could be produced from the same sewage.

^ even so it would probably take a couple of years to get methane generation going at scale.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#174

Post by hindsightbias »

Nursie wrote: post #47
seydor wrote: post #19

> It is the most concerted effort to slow down growth and employment in the interests of monetary stability that we have seen since the 1980s. I see it as a war of generations. The boomers/genXers are eager to preserve their wealth and are once again dumping on young people. The 70s was a period of high inflation, it was also, according to piketty a period of high income equality for the world over. The central banks…

And now Gen X are included in the anti-boomer rhetoric. Great. As a tail-end UK Gen Xer, while I have some wealth I have built from working for over 20 years, I missed out on houses costing 2-3x your income just as much as the younger generations did. I'm not sitting on a million dollar property that I paid 10c for in 1972, largely because I wasn't born then...

Just move in with boomer parents and wait for the inheritance.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#175

Post by mikem170 »

kansface wrote: post #108
visiblink wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canadian mortgages have separate amortization periods (say 20 or 25 years for example) and interest rate terms (generally 1-5 years, after which the rate has to be renegotiated -- and you have the option of transferring the mortgage to another lender at that time). You can also let your rate float with the market, which is called a variable rate mortgage.

Interesting. Do you know why mortgages in Canada are so different from the US? They seem much more risky on the buyer’s side.

> Do you know why mortgages in Canada are so different from the US?

The U.S. has been heavily subsiding mortgages since the great Depression, through programs such as FHA. Banks would not be willing to loan people money at such low rates over 30 years unless the government and taxpayers backed the loan.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#176

Post by thfuran »

WalterBright wrote: post #153
PKop wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither does no planning and complete decentralization (no national industrial policy, no trade barriers, letting important supply chains move out of your control or even into the borders of your adversaries).

Actually, the chaos of the free market works very, very well at producing the most prosperous countries ever seen.

Which country are you referring to? I rather suspect that their government is a good deal less hands off than you're implying.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#177

Post by ZeroGravitas »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #158
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a fan but he does get a little too blinded by America patriotism. His predictions about other countries start getting too comically apocalyptic to be taken seriously at times.

Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year. I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.

Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims?

The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#178

Post by [deleted] »

seydor wrote: post #19

> It is the most concerted effort to slow down growth and employment in the interests of monetary stability that we have seen since the 1980s. I see it as a war of generations. The boomers/genXers are eager to preserve their wealth and are once again dumping on young people. The 70s was a period of high inflation, it was also, according to piketty a period of high income equality for the world over. The central banks…

[deleted]

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#179

Post by polskibus »

All it takes for a world power to be on its knees is a couple of years of dry and hot weather. It kills agriculture, nuclear and solar power plants, usually also wind ones. A combination of that and covid and war induced logistics disruptions is what is hammering EU now. It is not a single cause but a multitude.
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