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The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

adamtooze.substack.com

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Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#141

Post by JPKab »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #30

I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…

Mexico will be fine as well.

North America is in a pretty good place compared to the rest of the world when it comes to energy/food/labor demographics.

China is, unfortunately, a long way from the competent leadership of Hu Jintao and the other previous post-Mao leaders. Unlike the previous leaders (primarily selected on merit), who WANTED to prevent another Mao-like cult of personality, Xi is a deeply-insecure man whose rise was entirely built on family connections. He has fostered a cult of personality while simultaneously using the cover of anti-corruption stings to remove all of his CCP rivals, or anyone critical of him.

The result is a huge departure from the previously competent CCP decisions. The current CCP is carrying out foolish, self-destructive, and non-sensical policies that can only make sense in the context of local decision makers desperate to please Xi. Xi is the ultimate centralizer of all decisions, having knee-capped the previous CCP policies of pushing decision making to local officials as much as possible. It's a real nightmare, and has resulted in China having an image of a shining (although somewhat authoritarian) city on a hill to a weird techno-dystopia with people starving in their apartments under absurdly stupid "Zero Covid" lockdown policies because the CCP can't admit the SinoVax is a complete failure.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#142

Post by seibelj »

howmayiannoyyou wrote: post #62
spywaregorilla wrote: post #30

I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…

> I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Look at USD FX rates. The US may be able to purchase resources and goods abroad at more favorable exchange, but who can afford to buy US exports as the USD rockets skyward? And what is the logical follow-on to unobtainable USD units of trade? Substitutes that China, for example, are more than delighted to support if it means t…

All the trinkets that could be offshored were done already. What the US manufactures now is high-end (chips) or protected by tariffs (cars). A lot of virtual stuff like software and call centers. I think we've hollowed out so much there isn't really much left to offshore.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#143

Post by bryanlarsen »

fennecfoxen wrote: post #33
colinmhayes wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Core was .6% last month, pretty horrendous after July looked good.

Yeah, this isn't just a one-time transient price spike that happened months ago. August fuel prices fell a lot (10.6%), a gift! — but core inflation erased all that progress, with a 0.1% month-to-month rise in the CPI overall. Food's up 0.8% in a month. Rent was up 0.7%. Cars were up 0.8%. We probably can't rely on fuel prices falling 10% again next month.

The problem with core inflation is that it is a lagging indicator. Rent especially. If a landlord increases the rent on Jan 1 but your contract rolls over on Dec 1 that increase shows up in the December numbers.

And yes gas has already fallen 10% in September. From $4.087 in August to $3.677 today.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#144

Post by MisterBastahrd »

fleventynine wrote: post #96
MisterBastahrd wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gen Xers are mostly still 30 years from retirement. This is the work of the ownership class who are seeing their profits nibbled away by employees who want to be paid a fair wage for their labor and aren't afraid to change jobs because millennials and gen Z aren't going to "go the extra mile" without being compensated for it.

There are millennials who are less than 25 years from retirement age.

It's why I said "mostly."

Because most of them are going to work well into their 70s.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#145

Post by JPKab »

adamc wrote: post #128
buscoquadnary wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the basic premise of this talk by Petar Zeihan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi_nFz1CJSI&t=2s

He has a book out I'm reading. Good so far: https://www.audible.com/pd/The-End-of-the-World-Is-Just-the-...

Great book.

I used to work in the Pentagon, and while we never took Zeihan's talks without a grain of salt, directionally he tends to be very accurate. Nations like China which lack a culture of immigration have extremely predictable demographic booms and busts, and Zeihan is spot on with those. He also hits on the reality of how dependent most nations, especially China, are on imports that pass through oceanic shipping lanes they have no ability to control or secure without the US Navy.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#146

Post by candiddevmike »

jmyeet wrote: post #8

Here's the lesson I want people to learn: we had 40+ years of stagnant real wages (overall; there are exceptions). What happened in the pandemic was: 1. People realized going into an officce to work was unncessary and even anachronistic for many jobs; 2. Employers like employees in the office as a form of control; 3. Employers made short-term decisions to lay off huge amounts of people (even after taking PPP loans fo…

Do you write this stuff anywhere else/have a blog? I like the way you laid out your viewpoint.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#147

Post by jhundal »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #137
carlmr wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The single mathematician no, but a new field would lead to the creation of a new building with new people at some point.

Every one of the people in that building needs the same amount of food they did before they moved in.

Same amount of food yes. But if a mathematician was just sitting on the sidelines before this new field, they may decide it is more productive to trade time they spent on preparing food for more time to spend on math.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#148

Post by bryanlarsen »

jmyeet wrote: post #8

Here's the lesson I want people to learn: we had 40+ years of stagnant real wages (overall; there are exceptions). What happened in the pandemic was: 1. People realized going into an officce to work was unncessary and even anachronistic for many jobs; 2. Employers like employees in the office as a form of control; 3. Employers made short-term decisions to lay off huge amounts of people (even after taking PPP loans fo…

> Why isn't corporate taxation being used to control the money supply?

That's exactly what the "Inflation Reduction Act" is doing. It's a significant increase in corporate income tax.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#149

Post by mytailorisrich »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #30

I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…

Europe has plenty of energy. They sit on huge gas reserves, for instance, but have decided to effectively ban using them by banning fracking while still being extremely dependent on gas. And not only that but most of gas imports came from a geostrategic adversary...

This is all self-inflicted. You can't prevent people and countries from shooting themselves in the foot.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#150

Post by Proven »

PKop wrote: post #139
WalterBright wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Central economic planning still doesn't work.

Neither does no planning and complete decentralization (no national industrial policy, no trade barriers, letting important supply chains move out of your control or even into the borders of your adversaries).

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