11–20 of 308 posts
If trend continues it seems we should be back in normal yoy inflation rates shortly once we start comparing against that post spike floor
Here's the lesson I want people to learn: we had 40+ years of stagnant real wages (overall; there are exceptions). What happened in the pandemic was: 1. People realized going into an officce to work was unncessary and even anachronistic for many jobs; 2. Employers like employees in the office as a form of control; 3. Employers made short-term decisions to lay off huge amounts of people (even after taking PPP loans fo…
Because corporate donations are one of the primary ways to control politicians.
Blogger objects to central bankers doing their job. I imagine his book matches his views.
His books (particularly Crashed) are also really, really good.
This article appears to take place in a universe where interest rates at central banks are at counter-inflationary levels. They've been inflationary for a decade, and continue to be so. With inflation at 10%, fears about "going too far with interest rates" make sense only *at least* north of 5%, and realistically, 8%.
Why 8? Doesn’t there need to be a premium for borrowing money? If i can borrow money at zero percent inflation adjusted rate, that is a great deal and still inflationary. I would say 12 percent would be neutral on 10 percent inflation.
If I can invest in businesses with 0% return and make a profit, that's generally good for short-term economic growth, and bad for long-term economic efficiency.
I'm not arguing for more or less interest, but I don't think there is a "natural." Interest rates have gone negative several times in several contexts, and the universe didn't explode in a numerical singularity. I am arguing for having reason beyond "we've always done it that way" or "it doesn't make sense."
Month to month inflation has been flat or near flat for some months now. It’s seems like we had a price spike in December/Jan for various reasons and now things have stabilized. If trend continues it seems we should be back in normal yoy inflation rates shortly once we start comparing against that post spike floor
This article appears to take place in a universe where interest rates at central banks are at counter-inflationary levels. They've been inflationary for a decade, and continue to be so. With inflation at 10%, fears about "going too far with interest rates" make sense only *at least* north of 5%, and realistically, 8%.
Why 8? Doesn’t there need to be a premium for borrowing money? If i can borrow money at zero percent inflation adjusted rate, that is a great deal and still inflationary. I would say 12 percent would be neutral on 10 percent inflation.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you need that for substack?
The primary link blocks me after a short scroll. Couldn't get past "the fold". But with Archive I can read the full article.
I see it as a war of generations. The boomers/genXers are eager to preserve their wealth and are once again dumping on young people. The 70s was a period of high inflation, it was also, according to piketty a period of high income equality for the world over. The central banks are going beyond what is mandated by them. If I were young, i would not take that deal.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequal...
Blogger objects to central bankers doing their job. I imagine his book matches his views.
He's not just a blogger: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Tooze His books (particularly Crashed) are also really, really good.